Coaching Rumors: The Ideal Candidate

Later this week, we will be running a series on the potential coaching candidates to replace Al Groh, who was fired on Sunday.  I thought about doing an Al Groh post-mortem, but quite frankly, with the writing on the wall since September, I think that's been done.  We'd rather look ahead, to what Craig Littlepage (and Jon Oliver, who clearly had a big say in the hiring of Tony Bennett) should be looking for.

1. He'd Better Recruit: As Coach Groh preached as he came in the door, and all too frequently fell back on as his team struggled this year, you don't win without players.  The lack of players, more than anything else, led to Groh's downfall.  It was galling to watch, in succession, a program like William & Mary appear to be on par physically with their in-state big brother, and then watch as non-major conference schools like TCU and S. Miss ran up and down the field on the Hoos.  Alas, that was only a precursor to getting steamrolled by Georgia and Virginia Tech, and being circled by Clemson and Miami.

Groh was unquestionably a good coach (his game management skills notwithstanding).  But after a few successful classes to start his tenure, Groh has allowed UVA to fall behind its ACC brethren in the annual recruiting wars, which is almost always more important to winning on Saturdays than Xs and Os.  If Groh's successor isn't any better at recruiting than Groh was (especially after his principal recruiting assistants left), he could be the second coming of Bill Walsh and its not going to matter much.  (Advantage: Florida Defensive Coordinator Charlie Strong, Temple Head coach Al Golden).

2. He'd Better Be Able to Do It In-State: The state of Virginia is not Florida or Texas, but its a state upon whose talent you can build a national program.  Just ask Frank Beamer.  And only Frank Beamer.  For the last two decades, and in particular the last few seasons, Beamer's Hokies have absolutely dominated in-state recruiting.  Its a wonder when any of the state's top recruits pick the Cavs anymore.

So yeah, its great that UVA has made inroads into places like Pennsylvania and New Jersey for elite talent, but Groh's successor is going to have to do better in talent-rich Hampton Roads, and is going to need to compete for the best from SW Virginia and Northern Virginia.  It won't be easy to wrestle control of the state away from Beamer, but we'll take something closer to competing, as opposed to the bloodbath that in-state recruiting has been recently.  There's enough talent in-state to go around.  (Advantage: Richmond Head Coach Mike London, Virginia Tech Defensive Coordinator Bud Foster).    

3. He Needs to Be Prepared to Deal With Academic Restrictions At Virginia: As the University made clear with the hiring of Tony Bennett, who was recently quoted as saying Virginia should aspire to be Stanford-East, UVa is not going to lower their academic standards to compete for recruits (although it wouldn't kill them to make a few more exceptions). Virginia has nicked more than a few of Groh's recruits, most prominently the lost class of 2006, when 8 of Cavs' 24 recruits didn't qualify academically.  The Hoos also lose players after they walk through the doors of the University.  Most recently, starting QB Jameel Sewell and starting CB Chris Cook were declared academically ineligible for the 2008 season.  And DE Jeffrey Fitzgerald finished his college career playing for Kansas State, not Virignia, in part because of academic issues.       

We can debate whether the football and basketball program should be held to the same academic standards as the rest of the University (although if you think more than 5% of either program would have been admitted without their athletic credentials, you're fooling yourself).  But its largely been made clear that those academic standards aren't going anywhere.  (Advantage: Harvard Head Coach Tim Murphy).   

4. He Needs to Be the Face of the Program: Besides not winning enough games, Groh's biggest failure was in not endearing himself in any way to the University community.  Whether it was his gruff demeanor, or his aloofness in dealing with issues such as ties v. t-shirts (I happen to agree with him, but he could have handled it better), Groh was always more concerned with Xs and Os than leading the program.  So when the records started going south, it was hard to find too many people willing to defend Groh.

Virginia served notice with Bennett's hiring that it was looking for someone to be the face of the program.  Expect them to pick someone that the University community will be able to embrace, something was wasn't often true with Groh.  (Advantage: Boise State Head Coach Chris Peterson).   

We'll be tackling some of the individual names starting tomorrow, but since the hiring of Tony Bennett came out of left field, its just as likely this one will too.  We're not sure the ideal candidate - i.e. the one that checks all these boxes - is out there, but you can be sure the AD's office will be taking these requirements into consideration when they pick their man. Continue reading this post...

NEXT!

You won't have to see this anymore.  AP Story here.  UVA statement here.   

The next Virginia Coach?

We'll have more on each of these and other candidates as the week (and the search) progresses. 

Continue reading this post...

A typical day at the beach

Well, that was disappointing. Such is life as a UVa hoops fan, though hopefully things won't stay this way forever. Virginia looked atrocious on offense for the second time this season, and the Hoos proved just bad enough to let an unimpressive Stanford squad eek out a 57-52 victory. So the frustration continues for Virginia fans. In a society where just about everything is instant, the hopes and dreams of Hoonation were that Bennett's arrival would immediately usher in sweeping change. Wisely he warned that change takes time and things weren't going to be fixed overnight. Yet, with the program's revived attitude and Bennett's new defensive scheme, optimists (members of 7even Win Society included) figured one of the first signs of improvement could come in the form of eradicating Virginia's tendency to fall completely flat in games such as tonight's Stanford debacle. So far, no new developments in this department as these head-scratching and often painfully ugly loses continue to plague the program while frustrating fans beyond no end.

In Virginia's two setbacks, the Hoos have averaged just under 50 points, and no matter how you slice it, you cannot expect to beat very many, if any, teams when you score so few points. Anyone worried that the Stanford game was a prime example of the boring, grind-it-out brand of play known as "Bennett-Ball," fear not for that was just plain ugly. No coach in the country implements a system that strives for under 38% shooting from the floor with a severely unbalanced offensive attack. The wildly inconsistent play from Zeglinski, Farrakhan, Scott, and Jones proves both befuddling and frustrating. Speaking of Bennett's defense, Stanford managed only 57 points and shot under 39% for the game, and in most cases, that is generally good enough to get the win. In Virginia's loss to USF, the Cavaliers played poorly on both sides of the ball. While the defense looked much better against Stanford, it is a little scary to think the Hoos can still find a way to lose even when executing Bennett's defensive schemes effectively. Then again, scoring only 52 points will do that.

It would have been fun to see what Virginia could have done against Kentucky...well, ok, it could have very well turned out to be an ugly affair, but it would have at least been fun spending Wednesday anticipating the big match-up while dreaming and hoping for a big upset. Even a respectable outing would have sufficed, but Virginia first needed to take care of undermanned Standford team in order to get the opportunity. In failing to do so, Virginia fans are left to search for a moral victory of sorts against Cleveland State. It will be interesting to see if the Hoos can show the strength, composure, and mental fortitude necessary to bounce back and gut out a win in a game that is lackluster and completely uninspiring. It looks like that's what we can realistically hope for...at least for now.
Continue reading this post...

Kickin' it in Cancun

Tonight Virginia takes on Stanford in the third round of the Cancun Challenge, and on paper the Hoos match up well against the Cardinal (the nickname refers to one of their school colors and not the bird, but regardless, the singular is really annoying) . The two teams only share one common opponent, Oral Roberts, and Stanford dropped a heart breaker to the Golden Eagles last Wednesday night when Roderick Peterson hit a game-winning jumper at the buzzer . UVa beat Oral Roberts by 21 this past Saturday. Both Virginia and Stanford hosted Oral Roberts on their home floors. In addition, Oral Roberts' head coach Scott Sutton (yes, son of famed basketball coach Eddie Sutton) left Charlottesville Saturday evening thinking the Hoos featured a stronger offense with more inside presence than Stanford. It's not everyday you hear someone suggest Virginia has an advantage inside. Lastly, Coach Bennett spent the previous six seasons coaching in the Pac-10 (three as a head coach), so he is pretty familiar with the Cardinal.

Despite the apparent advantage, all that goes out the window when it comes to games like these. Cavalier fans are well aware of Virginia's recent struggles in warm, sunny settings that often feature a beachfront nearby - most notably the entire state of Florida and Puerto Rico. Maybe the fact the contest is being played at the Moon Palace Resort might help the Hoos forget they are in the tropical paradise of Cancun. The gym will likely be near empty and the atmosphere will almost certainly be devoid of any energy. While either of these factors sets the stage for the Hoos to come out flat and listless, the prevailing thought is tonight's contest is as good a chance as any for UVa to kick the recent trend.

In addition to the loss against Oral Roberts, Stanford also fell to San Diego in their season opener. Head coach Johnny Dawkins (the former Duke player and long-time Duke assistant coach) boasts a relatively young squad, though senior guard/forward Landry Fields is the player to watch for the Cardinal. Fields nearly averages a double-double with 22.5 points and over 8 rebounds a game. Sophomore guard Jeremy Green also knows how to put the ball in the basket averaging 14.5 points per contest.

Stanford player statistics aside, tonight's affair is really about Virginia and whether or not the Hoos can get off the snide when it comes to games like these - playing down south against a statistically inferior team in front of a sparse crowd in a stadium with little to no energy. Assane Sene scored a career high in his season debut against Oral Roberts, and Mike Scott has looked solid as of late, so the Hoos should be able to out man Stanford in the post. Virginia's guard play has been nicely balanced as of late, and with so many threats, UVa's front court should overpower the Cardinal. Again, the stats favor the Cavaliers, but the setting lends itself to a flat, uninspiring performance against a lesser opponent - one that is far too familiar for Hoo fans. If looking to get the monkey off their backs isn't enough motivation, a win gives the Cavaliers an opportunity to go against a Kentucky squad that ranks among the nation's elite. This game serves as an early chance for Bennett and his squad to show things might just be changing in C'ville. It's a game UVa should win, but recently, contests like these have been no day at the beach. Continue reading this post...

Outmanned Again (This is Getting Old)

For the second time in three weeks, Virginia fought gamely for a half against a superiorly talented foe.  The Hoos pulled out all the stops -- a little Wildcat, a QB throwback, and even a gutsy and exhilarating go on the last play of the first half.  Unfortunately, Virginia didn't seem to have any tricks left for the second half, when things returned to form for Atlantic Division champ Clemson in a 34-21 result.

Some thoughts on the Cavs' eighth loss of the season, their most since 1986:

• The offense to open the game looked like it probably should have all season.  All thirteen of the Hoos' offensive plays in the first quarter were on the ground.  It didn't matter that the first drive ended in a fumble, or that the second ended in a punt.  The score after the first quarter was 7-7, and just as important the time of possession was 8-7 Virginia. 
• Like the Virginia Tech game last season when Vic Hall got the surprise start at QB, Virginia broke out a new toy with Mikell Simpson in the wildcat formation.  Groh was quoted as saying that they didn't just put that in this week; they just hadn't used it in a game.  Um, as many of us were thinking last season when they finally took the wraps off Hall, what took so long?
• The end of the half go for it was one of those no-no-no-yes! moments.  You have a chance to cut it to one score with a FG, and you're facing the ACC's best pass rush with 8 seconds left from the 23-yard line.  A short pass, which is all they had time for if they still wanted to preserve time for a FG, doesn't get you in the end zone, so why risk it?  Instead, Virginia calls a wheel route to Simpson, which if incomplete leaves the Cavs with no time for a FG.  But the play worked.  24-21 into halftime.  Gutsy, even if foolhardy, call.
• Unfortunately, that was the last play of Simpson's afternoon.  Without their star runner in the second half, Virginia gained only 40 more yards, and didn't score again.
• On the other side of the ball, there was only so much Virginia could do to slow down a clicking Clemson offense.  But UVA still held the Tigers under 400 yards for the first time in five games.  The Hoos actually kept star C.J. Spiller (19 carries, 60 yards) in relative check.  They had a little more trouble with speedy wideout Jacoby Ford, who had 6 catches for 106 yards and a TD.  
• The last time the Cavs lost eight games was 1986.  It will have to beat Tech to avoid its worst season since 1982.  Ouch.

Continue reading this post...

Countdown to November 30

As ACC COY noted earlier this season, 2009 has been a long and inevitable march towards Al Groh's firing.  This is as much AD Craig Littlepage's fault as it is Groh's.  But with the end of the football season mercilessly close, you should know that the death blow will likely come quickly, and soon. 

As ACC Sports Journal notes, November 30 is the annual date to exercise the rollover clause in Coach Groh's contract.  If the University isn't going to pick that up - and there's no one out there that thinks it will be picked up - conventional wisdom says that there's no reason to let an alum and, whatever you think of his coaching ability, a good man twist in the wind.  Jerry Radcliffe had a interesting piece about what went wrong for Al Groh.  Don't know that I agree with all of what Jerry writes, but he raises some interesting issues that any coaching candidate will have to consider.

Everyone's already starting with candidate lists - here and here for example.  Its a bit early for that, but with November 30 just ten days away, not that early.  Better than talking about the Clemson game, though, and Virginia's likely foray into the land of 3-8, something even the most pessimistic among us did not think possible when the season began. Continue reading this post...

Welcome to the ACC, Coach Bennett

After watching the Hoos get outmanned by the likes of South Florida on Monday, its hard not to think about the reinforcements coming for 2010.  As we've written in this space before, Coach Tony Bennett's first class is good, not great as some have proclaimed.  Still, its hard not to get excited about the five new recruits Bennett is bringing to the 'ville, two of whom are consensus top-100 players. 

Nor should it be surprising.  At Washington State, its hard to imagine how Coach Bennett got anyone to come to Pullman (if you've ever been to or even seen pictures of it, or that "cage you call a gym," you know what I mean). Here at UVA, Bennett's got a state-of-the-art facility, is a couple hours drive from more than a few recruiting hotbeds, and has the draw of playing in what is considered by most to be the nation's premier college hoops conference.  Its kind of like swimming every morning at the local Y, and then having the chance to instead swim every day at the Aquatic and Fitness Center.  It's gotta feel pretty nice, and certainly a whole lot better than where you were. 

But reviewing the various recruiting rankings has to bring things into perspective for UVA's new head man. Case in point, ESPN just released its rankings for college basketball's top 25 recruiting classes for 2010 (insider access required).  Virginia is ranked a respectable 21st.  Its what's ahead of Coach Bennett's class in those rankings that will soon enough be keeping him up at night.  Despite the strength of Virginia's class, no less than FIVE ACC schools' classes rank ahead of Bennett's.  UNC, with three top-20 players, is No. 3.  Wake is adding four top 100 players and is ranked No. 6.  Duke is right behind them, with two elite recruits, at No. 7. NC State (how Sidney Lowe keeps doing this yet his team stinks every year I'll never know) is No. 12, and Maryland is just ahead of Virginia in ESPN's rankings at No. 18.  Florida State is right behind the Hoos at No. 24. 

Meanwhile, only two of Bennett's former rivals from the Pac-10 have classes that rank ahead of Bennett's.  Always strong UCLA is at No. 10 and new Stanford head man Johnny Dawkins checks in at No. 15.  That's it. 

The story's the same over at scout.com, where Virginia's ranked 14th, but still trumped by UNC, Duke, Wake, and NC State, and at rivals.com, where Virginia's all the way up to 12th, but still behind that foursome.  Coach Bennett is certainly doing well, but he has to be learning that he's engaged in an arms race here on the east coast he's not winning, and probably can't.

So yeah, the pool's nicer over here.  Its not that shallow 25-meter thing at the Y where you don't quite trust the water.  Here on the east coast, the pool's heated, its got olympic-sized lanes, and is plenty deep enough for diving.  But just so you know, Coach, there are sharks swimming around in it.  Keep swimming fast.  You're going to have to. Continue reading this post...

Another 2nd Half Collapse

After Virginia's first two ballgames, one thing is absolutely crystal clear - Coach Bennett's efforts to temper expectations were not a case of sandbagging. If you read our fearless predictions, it's easy to see we at the Society bought into the excitement and promise of a new coach coming in to guide a team with the ACC freshman of the year and all five returning starters. With what appeared to be a decent and relatively talented foundation in place, surely Bennett was simply setting expectations low and under-promising in order to over deliver, or so we thought. It looks like that simply wasn't the case. The build-up to the season was exciting, but so much for the afterglow.

After an underwhelming and somewhat troubling win against Longwood, Virginia took on the University of South Florida last night and continued their complete incompetence in the Sunshine State (the Hoos last win there came during the 2000-2001 season when Roger Mason hit a last-second shot to down FSU). For the second straight game, Virginia posted another dismal second-half performance, and a four-point game at half time turned into a 17-point blowout. All night the offense was beyond anemic, and Virginia continues to work out the kinks with Bennett's new defensive system.

It's hard to win basketball games when you only score 49 points, and after only two games, some trends that plagued Virginia last year seem to be rearing their ugly heads again this season. The Hoos shot a woeful 32.7% from the field, and just like last year, finding offensive consistency from anyone not named Sylvan Landesburg proves challenging - even he struggled with just 2 points after the break. Sammy Zeglinski and Mustapha Farrakhan both posted nice outings in the opener against Longwood, and yet the two absolutely disappeared against the Bulls. The two combined for a mere 5 points on the night. Virginia fans truly want to believe Jeff Jones can and will begin to live up to the promise and expectations that once surrounded the highly-regarded recruit, but sadly, the wait continues. Once again the junior guard turned in a disappointing performance with 7 meaningless points all after USF had the game well in hand. While it's still very, very early, freshman Tristan Spurlock has shown no signs he will be able to contribute right away(or at least this year) - sure, there is still plenty of time, but Spurlock's first two games raise a slight cause for concern. Mike Scott failed to hit double-digits, yet, in his defense, with Virginia's front-court under-manned and under-sized, he simply couldn't do it all.

At first glance, 66 points doesn't seem like a horrendous defensive effort, and to some degree it wasn't. Bennett's defensive system is designed to make opposing teams shoot late in the shot clock, and thus, reduce their total number of shots. The fact USF shot over 53% from the field and eclipsed 45% from beyond the arc yet still only managed 66 points serves as evidence that part of the defensive scheme is taking hold. Of course, the other part is of the approach relies on defenders doing something, actually anything, to disrupt shots and keep shooting percentages far south of 50%. So far it seems as if UVa has yet to grasp that crucial element of Bennett's defensive philosophy.

The absence of Assane Sene and Jamil Tucker is likely partially to blame for Virginia's inability to keep South Florida's shooting percentage in check as the big men played well for the Bulls. Foward/Centers August Gilchrist and Jarrid Famous put up 18 and 12 respectively. In addition, both nabbed 8 rebounds a piece helping USF post a 33-21 advantage on the boards. To a large degree, a scoring and rebounding disparity was a bit expected given Virginia's thin front-court, yet that made shutting down the guards (specifically their go-to guy Dominique Jones) all the more important. Sadly, he dropped a game-high 22.

Coach Bennett harps on the idea that it is going to take time to get his system totally in place (that includes getting guys who can play his style). Sure, his approach is different and will take some time, but asking basketball players to play a different brand of defense is not quite the same as asking Gaylord Focker and a bunch of his male nurse friends to become heart surgeons. Fundamentally, several key defensive principles always apply. Even if it is a case where the players concentrate so hard to correctly execute Bennett's new defense that is causes lapses in more fundamental areas, getting that fixed only solves half the problem. Like last season, Virginia still can't find players able to step up on offense and produce night in and night out (Landesburg excluded). Without a doubt it was fun getting caught up in the hype and optimism prior to the season, but after two games, it's starting to look like maybe the players aren't the only ones still trying to learn Bennett's approach. It appears he wasn't bluffing when he warned that turning the program around was a true work in progress. Maybe there's still hope he overestimated the timetable.


Continue reading this post...

Home for the Holidays ... Again

Actually, that's three times in four years.  Not usually good for one's job security.  Has anyone thought about replacing the coach?

Game of inches was a popular media theme -- here and here for example.  Although let's not be melodramatic about it, fellas (and I don't mean to pick on these two particular stories -- it was a common refrain from pretty much every media outlet covering the game).  Virginia's bowl hopes were extinguished well before Jameel Sewell came up inches short at the BC 12 on fourth down. You see this team winning at Clemson and against Virignia Tech?  Yeah, me neither.

Tip of the cap nonetheless to Sewell, who played hurt in the absence of Marc Verica.  As we've said in this space before, Sewell has his flaws, but he's always given Virginia its best chance to win.  He did so again on Saturday.

And the defense, once again, almost made another impotent offensive showing stand up.  Chris Cook got Virginia on the board with an int return for TD to tie the game, and then the D stopped the Eagles three and out to set up a FG that briefly gave the Hoos a 10-7 lead.  And last week we asked who would stand out as the Cavs played out the string.  LB Billy Shautz raised his hand, registering his first career sack as well as a tackle for loss. 

Nonetheless, that defense succumbed in much the same way it has a number of times this season - when a team committed to running it down their throats, the Hoos couldn't stop them.  BC marched 70 yards in 12 plays to start the fourth quarter.  10 of the Eagles' 12 plays on that decisive drive were runs, culminating in a gutsy fourth and goal run that just snuck the ball over the line (yes, by inches, we get it).

In any event, the inches don't matter anymore to this group, except to figure out how many inches outside the hole a putt might be sometime in December.  It will be interesting to see who else, like Shautz, stands up and makes himself noticed as the team plays out the string.   Continue reading this post...

A Mixed Start

I'm sure many of us would have liked to have seen the first game of the Tony Bennett era.  Alas, games against Longwood don't move the meter.  Thankfully, even with new paper budgets shrinking everywhere, a few brave souls were there too tell us a bit about the Hoos' opening night 85-72 win.

Virginia closed the first half on a 27-9 run to take a 49-27 lead into halftime, and the issue was never really in doubt.  But the second half was a bit disconcerting, with Longwood shooting 55% and getting as close as nine.  With every quote, Bennett appears to be tempering expectations - is it too late to revise my fearless prediction?

As Bennett promised, the offense did not hold the ball.  Virginia started four guards, and got a nice lift from Mustapha Farrakhan.  Freshman Jontel Evens played 20 minutes off the bench, impressing Bennett with his on-the-ball defense and ball-handling.  Could be nice complement to Smmy Zieglinski.  The other freshman - Tristan Spurlock - played only three minutes.

But playing small ball without C Assane Sene and F Jamil Tucker (who were both on the bench in street clothes), a pair of Longwood big men abused the Cavs' D on 14-18 shooting.  That will be even more of a problem against upcoming Big East foe S. Florida.

In other news, Bennett spoke highly of his incoming recruiting class (would have been nice to land top PG prospect and O'Connell product Kendall Marshall, but that was probably a pipe-dream).  Continue reading this post...

Looking Ahead to 2010 While Playing Out The String

The wonder of sports is that hope forever springs eternal.  There's always next year.  We're not quite there yet, but rather than talk about Virginia's matchup with 6-3 BC, or how few people will attend the Hoos' likely bowl-busting game, I'm already looking towards 2010, and the players that will be in place then.  Something (and some names) to keep an eye on if you have any stomach left to watch the 2009 version of the Hoos.   

Running Backs: Despite the departure of bruiser Rashawn Jackson, Virginia is well-stocked in the backfield for next season.  Mikell Simpson returns for one more season, and Dominique Wallace should be back to full health, hopefully with four more years of eligibility to burn.  Torrey Mack, of which more was probably expected this season, also returns with three years of eligibility remaining.

Wide Receivers: What Virginia lacks in obvious quality, they make up for in quantity here.  Kris Burd, Jared Green, Javaris Brown, and Tim Smith all return next season.  Look for one or two of them to finally distinguish themselves from the pack towards the end of this season.  TEs Joe Torchia and Colter Phillips will also be back for whatever coach (and new system) is employed.

O-line: Will Barker graduates.  That's it.  With four starters returning, the Hoos should be solid up front.  We just hope they work on their pass protection skills during the offseason.

QB: The pink elephant in the room.  Despite having enough pieces everywhere else on offense for next season, both Jameel Sewell and Vic Hall are out of eligibility.  That leaves would-be senior Marc Verica and now-redshirt freshman Riko Smalls as one-two on the depth chart.  I'm sure I'm not the only one who shuddered as I read that.

D-Line: Like the o-line, the defense loses one of its most valuable pieces in Nate Collins.  But starters Matt Conrath and Nick Jenkins return, along with Zane Parr and true freshman Will Hill ready to step in for Collins.  Should again be a position of strength for the Hoos.

Linebackers: The Hoos will lose three seniors, two of them starters.  But arguably the two most important pieces, Steve Greer and Cam Johnson, return.  Greer, like his predecessor Jon Copper, may need a caddy on passing downs, but he's the backbone of the Hoos' defense.  Johnson should continue to blossom into a pass rusher good enough to play on Sundays.  However, beyond those two standouts, its unclear among the three freshman listed on the depth chart (Schautz, McCartin, and Windle) who will fill out the starting lineup. 

Secondary: Other than QB, this is the position that will take the biggest beating headed into 2010.  CB Chris Cook and S Brandon Woods graduate, along with sometimes CB Vic Hall, and its entirely possible Jr. CB Ras-I Dowling decides he's had enough and enters the draft a year early.  There's some depth here -- Chase Minnifield should reenter the mix at CB he was in before Cook was reinstated, and Corey Moseley should be able to step in nicely for Woods.  But its hard to imagine the biggest strength of this team won't take a step back in 2010.
 
So there you have it.  There are probably less question marks headed into 2010 than there were headed into this season, but the Hoos will have a big question mark at the most important position on the field.  We wouldn't expect Groh to start playing for 2010, whether his job were on the line or not, but since he's playing everyone anyway, eligibility be damned, we might as well keep an eye out for what we have in 2010.  Enjoy the game (if you can).    Continue reading this post...

Fearless Predictions - Hoops Edition

As we've already noted, the national media isn't too peachy on Virginia hoops this season.  As part of the annual ACC media poll, Virginia was picked 11th.  Collegehoops.net has an interesting high-low projection, picking Virginia to finish anywhere from 7th to 12, but ultimately peg the Cavs at 10th.  Baseball Prospectus' little brother is a little more optimistic, predicting Virginia to finish 8-8 in the ACC, as noted over at the Sabre.  I share BP's optimism.  My colleagues, not so much, although they certainly have more than the national media.  Our predictions are after the jump.  Feel free to chime in with your own in the comments section.  The schedule can be found here.


red4z: As I’m already on the record as saying, 2009-10 will be a turnaround team for Virginia basketball. For all the flack Dave Leitao took for his lack of recruiting acumen, he doesn’t leave the cupboard bare for the incoming Tony Bennett. And unlike football, the administration didn't wait one year too long to pull the plug on a coach that needed to go.

There are few things I expect immediately with Coach Bennett taking the reins. First, no more embarrassing losses. He’s too good a coach, and his teams are characteristically too disciplined for a slip up. So no more losses to Liberty. Second, an established player rotation. As a former NBA player, Bennett understands the importance of everyone knowing their roles. A few players will invariably be left without minutes in the process, but that’s better than players looking over to the bench for the hook every time they make a mistake. Finally, Bennett is a player’s coach. Expect a few guys who wilted under Leitao’s in your face style to flourish under a new voice. Jeff Jones, I’m looking in your direction.

The Hoos will surprise throughout their pre-conference schedule. They’ll drop a game to a loaded Kentucky squad (say hello to John Wall) in Cancun, but will steal a road win at South Florida or Auburn. And the Hoos will take care of business against Penn St. in the ACC Invitational (better known as the ACC/Big Ten Challenge). The Hoos will enter conference play unranked, but 11-2 and people will be wondering just how good they are.

Virginia is well-positioned to start strong in ACC play, and in general. The Cavs open at NC State, home to GT and Miami, at WF, and at home to Va. Tech. They also get UNC and Duke only once each. Its too early to expect wins against those traditional powers, but the Hoos will break through against the ACC’s second tier. My heart says 9-7; my head says 8-8. Either way, without a true marquee win, Virginia is left out of the dance. Disappointing at the time, but in the big picture, a successful first season for Bennett.  Prediction: 19-10, 8-8. NIT berth.

cjhoo99: The energy of a new head man, the opportunities that accompany change, and the benefits of new schemes often produce some sort of positive results in year one. Certainly the idea is for the momentum of the first year to carry forward to years two, three, and four, yet, for whatever reason, that part of the puzzle seems to have eluded Virginia’s last two previous basketball coaches. Without a doubt, Hoo fans would like new headman Tony Bennett to find a way to break the recent trend plaguing UVa’s basketball program while still maintaining a little of that “beginner’s luck.” On paper at least it appears modest improvement over the complete debacle that was last season proves well within reason.

Virginia’s non-conference schedule proves very reasonable. If Bennett’s defensive system takes hold early, that should help keep some member of the opposing team from setting a new career-best in scoring against the Cavs (something that happened far too often under both Gillen and Leitao). By simply minimizing the bad losses that have been commonplace in recent years, the Hoos should finish the non-conference portion of the schedule at no worse than 8-5. If everything falls into place early on, it’s not completely inconceivable that Virginia travels to Raleigh sitting at 11-2, and should be 10-3 starting conference play.

Virginia plays a home and home series with N.C. State, Maryland, Va Tech, and Miami, and winning six of those eight games is not out of the question – that means the Hoos sweep either the Wolfpack or Miami while splitting with Maryland and Va. Tech. Certainly possible. An upset over Ga. Tech at home (second ACC game) or Wake Forest could be in the cards, and a road win over either Clemson or Boston College can’t be ruled out. Heck, even a shocker over Duke is not impossible – the Blue Devils tend to bring out the best in Virginia, especially in C’ville. Going .500 in the ACC would be a minor miracle while anything below 5-11 would prove disappointing.

A trip to the Big Dance seems a bit unlikely, though an NIT birth represents a reasonable goal. Getting back to post-season play (the CBI or any other b-grade tourney excluded) would certainly be a nice start to the Bennett era. Prediction: 17-12, 7-9, NIT berth.

ACC COY: Virginia has a new coach with a better system but still does not have very many good players. It's reasonable enough that if the players buy into Bennett's system and work hard, they can surprise a few teams, particularly at home, on the first leg of the home-and-homes. I doubt, however, that they would be able to beat many decent teams on the road, particularly when the opponent has already seen them once or has sufficient tape. Since the ACC is filled with decent to good teams, this is probably going to be a long season for the Wahoos.

I'd guess 6-10 in the ACC, with one or two big upsets and a growing reputation as a tough out, particularly in JPJ. Maybe one win in the ACC tournament, and all that is possibly enough to get into the NIT, which I think should be considered a major accomplishment considering how bare the cupboard is.

This isn't like Pete Gillen inheriting three bona fide ACC players in Adam Hall, Chris Williams and Donald Hand,* or Leitao getting JR and Sean Singletary. Virginia has exactly one legitimate top-shelf ACC player in Sylven, and maybe another two or three other guys that would be rotation regulars in a good ACC lineup. If this team even gets a sniff at .500 in the conference, Tony Bennett should hit Littlepage up for a 10-year extension with an extensive buyout. Prediction: 16-13, 6-10, NIT Berth.

*---I doubt anyone expected those three to be as good as they were, but doesn't it strike you in retrospect how for two years Virginia had a starting lineup of Williams, Hall, Hand, Watson and Mason (not to mention brief flashes of Mapp and some other guys), all of whom had legitimate professional careers in the minors, overseas or in the NBA, and never won a tournament game? Astounding. What would you give for that rotation right now? If Majestic Mapp does not hurt his knee, you have to figure they make it to the Sweet 16 at least once, right? Wow.

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ESPN on the ACC: Judging on Reputation, Not Reality

With college basketball kicking off Monday night, college hoops previews are everywhere.  As part of its coverage, ESPN the Magazine ranked the top 64 teams (ignore the fact that the top 64 don't make the dance, but rather 31 auto bids plus 34 at-large teams do, and oh yeah, its 65 teams because God forbid a 9-9 Big Ten team lose a spot for an automatic qualifier).   

Its one of those years where no one can tell who's any good, so "experts" are largely sticking with the big names.  Case in point, North Carolina, who lost their top four scorers from a year ago, are ranked sixth in the AP poll based on the return of Ed Davis and an uber-talented freshman class.  The Heels will be good, especially towards the end of the season, but there's no way they're the sixth best team in the country right now.

But you can excuse a little North Carolina bias (Duke bias is another matter).  They're always good, always have at least one lottery pick on the roster, and are well coached by Roy Williams.  I also won't quibble with ESPN putting Duke at 12, since the Dukies always maximize talent (during the regular season at least), or Georgia Tech at 25, since Derrick Favors may be the best player in the country right out of high school (the last time Paul Hewitt brought Favors' kind of talent to Atlanta was 2006-07, when one-and-doners Thaddeus Young and Javaris Crittenden led the Jackets to a 20-12 record and an NCAA berth). And I won't even kill them too bad for putting Maryland at 19, although most people will tell you that merry band of turtles played over its head last season and its unlikely they'll be able to do it again.  Same with Wake Forest at 33, but the Deacs will severely miss their two best players - Teague and Johnson - regardless of how high Al-Farouq Aminu can jump. 

But once you get past them, I was shocked by the utter lack of homework ESPN did as part of its ESPN the Magazine College Hoops preview.  They're not the only ones, but as the 700-pound gorilla in the sports world, they're an easy target.

First, the ACC was propped up last season by a couple of singularly great players on otherwise bad teams: Tyrese Rice at BC, Toney Douglas at Florida State, and Jack McClinton at Miami.  All are gone; all three should expect to take a step back.  Yet ESPN has BC at 28, essentially 5th in the ACC, based on the return of Reggie Jackson and all of his 7 ppg?  Florida State is at 35 based on Darwin Kitchen?  And Miami is at 56, based apparently on a couple of guys averaging just around 10 ppg?  Sorry, folks, don't see it with any of them.  Maybe BC is a bubble team based on Al Skinner and what's left of Rice's tough supporting cast, but make no mistake, they are nothing more than that - a supporting cast.  BC's barely an NIT team last season without Rice.  And don't expect FSU and Miami to be even bubble good without their do-everything leaders.  Solomon Alabi's a nice NBA big-man prospect, but he can't score, something the 'Noles had enough trouble doing even with Douglas.  And you want to know what life will be like for the Canes without Shooter Jack?  Harken back to their ACC-Big Ten Challenge game last season against Ohio State.  They led by 14 at the half with McClinton.  Playing without him in the second half after he was ejected, they were outscored by 19.  Get used to the latter.

ESPN also apparently thought another pair of senior-led teams - Virginia Tech at 42 and Clemson at 47 - were getting their leaders back.  But no, AD Vasallo is not coming back for what seems like his seventh year of eligibility.  I can't see the Hokies building an NCAA resume, which they didn't have last season even with Vasallo, on the backs of Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen.  And Clemson lost not only KC Rivers to graduation, but also 3-point bomber and Reggie Cleveland candidate Terrence Oglesby to Italian pro ball.  That's 27.4 ppg out the door.  Trevor Booker is a man among boys, but I'm not sure who's getting him the ball, or loosening up defenses for him, anymore.  

The point of all this, other than the national media is sometimes lazy and stupid?  A middle of the pack spot in the ACC -- and the bubble talk that goes with that spot -- is ripe for the taking.  Wake, BC, FSU, Miami, Va. Tech, and Clemson are all less than they were a year ago.  Maryland's no better.  So there's no reason Virginia, with five returning starters and the ACC ROY in its stable, can't fill that void.  Its something I hope Tony Bennett's thinking, even if he's not saying it.  The national media certainly isn't.      Continue reading this post...

Virginia Steamrolled ... Again.

It took a while for 16th-ranked Miami to find Virginia's soft underbelly -- its run defense -- but once it did, Miami didn't go away from it.  268 rushing yards later, the Canes broke open a close game at the half, and won going away, 52-17, over the Cavs. 

Some observations with the Hoos one loss away from bowl ineligibility:

• Tip of the cap to the Cavs' secondary.  When Miami characteristically opened the game pass-happy, Virginia's secondary of Dowling, Cook, Woods, and McLeod made a very good pass offense pay.  Dowling's int set up the Hoos' first score, and Heisman-hopeful Jacory Harris looked thoroughly frustrated at halftime. 
• Another tip of the cap to LB Cam Johnson, the most exciting young player in Virginia's stable.  The second year backer had two sacks, unfortunately the second of which changed the momentum of the game.  The call may have been technically correct -- the face mask penalty does include the "helmet opening," and an official can use replay to correct an "egregious" error.  I'm not sure the official's interpretation of either of those terms is correct, but even if they were, I'm not sure what Johnson is supposed to do when he comes clean, and the quarterback ducks into him, causing Johnson to grab what he could to bring an extraordinary athlete to the ground.  Keep going after 'em Cam. 
• While Miami was figuring out how to attack the Hoos' defense (apparently they don't review film or stats from previous games at the U untiul halftime), their talent still staked them to a first half lead.  That top-flight talent was on display first with TE Leonard Hankerson's 35-yard catch and run TD, and then PR Thearon Collier's 60-yard punt return.  Virignia looked like they had both plays hemmed in before that talent took over. 
• Virginia couldn't kick or cover kicks in the first half, but special teams coach Ron Prince clearly saw a hole to exploit in the Canes' punt-blocking scheme.  Terrence Fells-Danzer's block set up Virginia's first touchdown, and then Trey Womack's block led directly to Billy Schautz's return TD.   
• Virginia needed both, as their offense went back to its conservative roots with Marc Verica running the offense.  The Hoos ran the ball effectively, but were awful on third down (2-for-12 for the game) and thus unable to sustain drives. 
• Verica was a brutal 11-29 for 75 yards passing.  If Sewell wasn't healthy, which wasn't reported late in the week but was apparently known by the coaching staff since the Duke game, someone needs to explain to me why Vic Hall too ZERO snaps at QB, as was reported by the TV crew doing the game.  They could have used some of his escapability against that speedy Miami defense.
• Finally, Al Groh produced his second quote in the last week to explain away his team's performace with a lack of talent.  Earlier in the week, Groh was quoted as saying that you can't force an identity without the skills to match it.  After the Miami game, explaining why Wake Forest racked up 515 yards of offense against Miami's porous D while Virginia mustered little, Groh said, "They've got Riley Skinner," referring to the Deacs' QB.  Unfortunately for Groh, he's ultimately responsible for the lack of talent he now sees in Charlottesville.  Fortunately for the rest of us, its inconceivable that he'll be responsible for it much longer.  

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Doing What You Need to Do, Not What You Want to Do

As you've probably noticed, we've been a little thin on content the last few weeks here at the 7even Win Society.  We had grand plans to discuss whether the University's academic standards excuse Virginia's poor recruiting (as Groh hinted at during a press conference a few weeks back), perhaps look into how a few rumored coaching candidates are doing these days (because the end for Groh is all but certain to be nearing, no?), and maybe even start up some basketball banter (because we can't wait for a team that offers some hope).  But things like work, school, and family intervene sometimes, and you gotta do what you gotta do, not what you want to do.  (Don't worry, though, those posts are coming).

Unfortunately, while the scribes of the 7even Win Society did what we needed to do, not what we wanted to do in the last few weeks, Al Groh hasn't.  During a modest three-game winning streak, Coach Groh went to a gameplan that a talent-deprived roster had to in order to win some games -- play close to the vest offensively by running the ball, and rely on the team's relative strength on defense.  It was ironic and downright defiant, since Groh had been forced during the offseason to fire his own son and hire Gregg Brandon to revolutionize Virginia's offense.  But reverting back to his conservative roots is what Groh needed to do, and he seemed to be saying, starting with that game at Chapel Hill when Virginia ran the ball 43 times v. 27 pass attempts, that if he was going down, Groh was going down his way.

Groh followed the script the next two weeks.  Against an overmatched Indiana team, Virginia ran the ball 45 times to 31 passes.  Then, against a pass happy Terp squad on a muddy track, the Cavs ran the ball 38 times to 26 passes even though they were only averaging 1.7 yards a carry.  Nate Collins made good on that strategy when he snatched a Chris Turner pass out of mid-air and ran it back for a TD, just as Collins and Chase Minnifield had by forcing an interception that led to a game-clinching TD in Chapel Hill.  It wasn't pretty, but it was winning football.

So its been mind-boggling to watch the Hoos decide they're a passing team again the last few weeks.  Against Ga. Tech, Virginia ran the ball only 12 times, only 7 of which were RB carries.  It was a game that screamed out for Virginia to protect its defense, which bent but did not break in the first half against the Jackets' vaunted running game.  But with no time to recover, because Virginia was passing the ball, time of possession be damned (GT 42:43, Virginia 17:17), the defense predictably wore down.  But hey, you play to win the game, and perhaps the Virginia coaching staff thought it had to score to keep up with the Ramblin' Wreck.  Not that its offense has consistently scored by passing, mind you, but I was willing to give Groh a mulligan, since it was hard to see how Virginia wins that game regardless of the offensive strategy.

Duke was another matter.  Game in doubt throughout, and a game Virginia led early in the fourth quarter.  What's the breakdown?  Runs 28, Passes 38.  In a game in which Virginia's running backs averaged 5 yards a carry, no less, and Sewell and Verica were putting together a stinkfest passing (107 yards for the game).  

But Virginia still has time to redeem itself, or so we thought.  Duke scores the go-ahead TD to take a 18-17 lead.  3:45 left.  Plenty of time under college rules, where the clock stops after every first down and you still have a timeout.  The play calls where the running game has worked, but the passing hasn't?  Three passes, two incompletions and a sack that forces a fumble returned for a TD.  That's OK.  Still only down one score.  You now need a TD, but a Minnifield return has just set you up with good field position at the VA 39.  And there's still an eternity left -- 3:22.  Calls?  Four more passes, three incompletions, one sack on fourth down.  A mind-numbing 28-17 loss to Duke at home.

I bring this up not to second-guess the play-calling (OK, maybe I am a little bit), but as a reminder with a trip to Miami and Heisman-candidate Jacory Harris looming on Saturday.  The Canes average 388 yards of offense per game, and have scored more than 27 points in all but two games this season, a number Virginia itself has eclipsed twice all season.  Let's not pretend the Cavs can score with Miami; they can't.  Virginia ranks dead last in the ACC in scoring and total offense.

But the two teams that have held the Canes under 27 had one thing in common -- they ran the ball.  In a September slogfest in Blacksburg, Virginia Tech ran the ball 55 times to 9 passes, and crushed the previously unbeaten Canes.  Then, playing without Heisman coverboy Sam Bradford, Oklahoma broke tendency and ran the ball 42 times to 30 passes against Miami.  The Sooners didn't win, but hung around until the very end in a 21-20 squeaker.  Now, I'm not suggesting the Hoos can run the ball like those two national powers -- they can't -- but if the last two weeks have proven anything, its that Virginia can't win by abandoning the run for a mediocre at-best passing attack.  Let's hope this Saturday, Virginia does what it needs to do, not what it might want to do.      Continue reading this post...