Doing What You Need to Do, Not What You Want to Do

As you've probably noticed, we've been a little thin on content the last few weeks here at the 7even Win Society.  We had grand plans to discuss whether the University's academic standards excuse Virginia's poor recruiting (as Groh hinted at during a press conference a few weeks back), perhaps look into how a few rumored coaching candidates are doing these days (because the end for Groh is all but certain to be nearing, no?), and maybe even start up some basketball banter (because we can't wait for a team that offers some hope).  But things like work, school, and family intervene sometimes, and you gotta do what you gotta do, not what you want to do.  (Don't worry, though, those posts are coming).

Unfortunately, while the scribes of the 7even Win Society did what we needed to do, not what we wanted to do in the last few weeks, Al Groh hasn't.  During a modest three-game winning streak, Coach Groh went to a gameplan that a talent-deprived roster had to in order to win some games -- play close to the vest offensively by running the ball, and rely on the team's relative strength on defense.  It was ironic and downright defiant, since Groh had been forced during the offseason to fire his own son and hire Gregg Brandon to revolutionize Virginia's offense.  But reverting back to his conservative roots is what Groh needed to do, and he seemed to be saying, starting with that game at Chapel Hill when Virginia ran the ball 43 times v. 27 pass attempts, that if he was going down, Groh was going down his way.

Groh followed the script the next two weeks.  Against an overmatched Indiana team, Virginia ran the ball 45 times to 31 passes.  Then, against a pass happy Terp squad on a muddy track, the Cavs ran the ball 38 times to 26 passes even though they were only averaging 1.7 yards a carry.  Nate Collins made good on that strategy when he snatched a Chris Turner pass out of mid-air and ran it back for a TD, just as Collins and Chase Minnifield had by forcing an interception that led to a game-clinching TD in Chapel Hill.  It wasn't pretty, but it was winning football.

So its been mind-boggling to watch the Hoos decide they're a passing team again the last few weeks.  Against Ga. Tech, Virginia ran the ball only 12 times, only 7 of which were RB carries.  It was a game that screamed out for Virginia to protect its defense, which bent but did not break in the first half against the Jackets' vaunted running game.  But with no time to recover, because Virginia was passing the ball, time of possession be damned (GT 42:43, Virginia 17:17), the defense predictably wore down.  But hey, you play to win the game, and perhaps the Virginia coaching staff thought it had to score to keep up with the Ramblin' Wreck.  Not that its offense has consistently scored by passing, mind you, but I was willing to give Groh a mulligan, since it was hard to see how Virginia wins that game regardless of the offensive strategy.

Duke was another matter.  Game in doubt throughout, and a game Virginia led early in the fourth quarter.  What's the breakdown?  Runs 28, Passes 38.  In a game in which Virginia's running backs averaged 5 yards a carry, no less, and Sewell and Verica were putting together a stinkfest passing (107 yards for the game).  

But Virginia still has time to redeem itself, or so we thought.  Duke scores the go-ahead TD to take a 18-17 lead.  3:45 left.  Plenty of time under college rules, where the clock stops after every first down and you still have a timeout.  The play calls where the running game has worked, but the passing hasn't?  Three passes, two incompletions and a sack that forces a fumble returned for a TD.  That's OK.  Still only down one score.  You now need a TD, but a Minnifield return has just set you up with good field position at the VA 39.  And there's still an eternity left -- 3:22.  Calls?  Four more passes, three incompletions, one sack on fourth down.  A mind-numbing 28-17 loss to Duke at home.

I bring this up not to second-guess the play-calling (OK, maybe I am a little bit), but as a reminder with a trip to Miami and Heisman-candidate Jacory Harris looming on Saturday.  The Canes average 388 yards of offense per game, and have scored more than 27 points in all but two games this season, a number Virginia itself has eclipsed twice all season.  Let's not pretend the Cavs can score with Miami; they can't.  Virginia ranks dead last in the ACC in scoring and total offense.

But the two teams that have held the Canes under 27 had one thing in common -- they ran the ball.  In a September slogfest in Blacksburg, Virginia Tech ran the ball 55 times to 9 passes, and crushed the previously unbeaten Canes.  Then, playing without Heisman coverboy Sam Bradford, Oklahoma broke tendency and ran the ball 42 times to 30 passes against Miami.  The Sooners didn't win, but hung around until the very end in a 21-20 squeaker.  Now, I'm not suggesting the Hoos can run the ball like those two national powers -- they can't -- but if the last two weeks have proven anything, its that Virginia can't win by abandoning the run for a mediocre at-best passing attack.  Let's hope this Saturday, Virginia does what it needs to do, not what it might want to do.