Free Fall

The Hoos are running on empty and a service station is nowhere in sight. From a physical standpoint, five games in eleven days has proven too much for a team that is, by the coach's own admission, thin and undermanned. From a mental standpoint, an overtime home loss to Wake combined with tough loss to arch-rival Va Tech in Bleaksburg appears to have broken (or at least severally damaged) the team's spirit. Last night, Virginia dropped it's sixth consecutive contest with a 74-62 road loss to Miami. It was their fourth consecutive double-digit setback, and sadly, the storyline for this one was no different than the previous three. It's as if the Hoos are stuck on repeat. Everyone knows Virginia's problems but it appears the squad is unwilling or unable to find the solution - likely a combination of the two with a hefty portion of the problem stemming from a lack of talent and ability. It's reminiscent of the morning after Foxfields when you're too damn hungover to turn off the stereo that has been playing the same Slackjaw song over and over again all night long. The night before you were too drunk to care, and by morning, you're too sick to move or too mentally drained to notice.

Not long ago, the talk was about finding a consistent third scorer. During Virginia's seven-game winning streak, Sylven Landesburg and Mike Scott were putting up consistent numbers and either Mustapha Farrakhan, Jeff Jones, or (mostly) Sammy Zeglinski were taking turns filling the third -scorer role. Now, the Hoos are simply looking for anyone other than Landesburg to score. Against Miami, Scott failed to score a point and Zeglinski managed only five. Meyinsse posted a solid 13 and Jones pitched in 11, but outside of Zeglinski, no one else managed more than two measly points. That won't cut it. According to Landesburg, it's as if the Cavs have simply forgotten how to win.

Recently this year's squad has started to resemble the Leitao-led Hoos of last season. Over the past several games, Coach Bennett has toyed with various lineups and followed inconsistent substitution patterns. Last night, Farrakhan logged a DNP for the first time this season and Jontel Evans saw little time. Scott was woefully ineffective and sat much of the second half while seldom-used Solomon Tat saw some action. Possibly a bit of desperation or maybe Bennett's way of trying to find a spark...something to jump-start his otherwise lethargic team. While the rotation moves prove interesting but somewhat understandable, the way in which Virginia has played recently is far too similar to last season. Down the stretch the Hoos have become porous on defense and the offense has become non-existent. Once again, teams are keying on Landesburg and no one is stepping up offensively to relieve the pressure. Landesburg posted only four points in a home loss to FSU and too few players stepped up to fill the void. Even though he went off last night, he got too little help from others. This squad simply lacks the offensive talent to compete in the ACC, and that's pretty evident when the Hoos start looking for more production from walk-on Will Sherrill. Take nothing away from Sherrill - he's a great story and does a lot of the intangibles that are so necessary for success. Every team needs a guy like Sherrill to provide that spark and do the dirty work, but when you are relying on him to produce offensively, it speaks volumes about the team's overall talent level.

For optimistic Virginia fans (are there any), where is the silver lining in all of this. Well, if you look hard enough, you can see one - or the potential for one. While it looks bleak, if the Hoos can win two of their last three (not impossible), that would give the Cavs a 7-9 ACC record and probably put them somewhere in the middle of the conference standings. Not bad for a team predicted to finish last. Furthermore, seven conference wins are nearly as many as the nine total ACC wins Leitao's squads collected over the previous two seasons. Going from 8 games below five hundred to a winning record and possible post-season play (NIT) is a nice turnaround from last season and likely more than anyone should have expected from this year's team. Things looked grim before the Hoos rattled off seven straight earlier this season, so it will be interesting to see if Bennett and the boys can regroup and find a way to end the season on an up-swing. It's not too late to salvage a respectable season, but in order to do so, Virginia will need to figure this thing out soon....somebody just has to get up off the couch and hit the stop button so we don't hear AFH for the 100th straight time.


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Virginia Steamrolled ... Again.

It took a while for 16th-ranked Miami to find Virginia's soft underbelly -- its run defense -- but once it did, Miami didn't go away from it.  268 rushing yards later, the Canes broke open a close game at the half, and won going away, 52-17, over the Cavs. 

Some observations with the Hoos one loss away from bowl ineligibility:

• Tip of the cap to the Cavs' secondary.  When Miami characteristically opened the game pass-happy, Virginia's secondary of Dowling, Cook, Woods, and McLeod made a very good pass offense pay.  Dowling's int set up the Hoos' first score, and Heisman-hopeful Jacory Harris looked thoroughly frustrated at halftime. 
• Another tip of the cap to LB Cam Johnson, the most exciting young player in Virginia's stable.  The second year backer had two sacks, unfortunately the second of which changed the momentum of the game.  The call may have been technically correct -- the face mask penalty does include the "helmet opening," and an official can use replay to correct an "egregious" error.  I'm not sure the official's interpretation of either of those terms is correct, but even if they were, I'm not sure what Johnson is supposed to do when he comes clean, and the quarterback ducks into him, causing Johnson to grab what he could to bring an extraordinary athlete to the ground.  Keep going after 'em Cam. 
• While Miami was figuring out how to attack the Hoos' defense (apparently they don't review film or stats from previous games at the U untiul halftime), their talent still staked them to a first half lead.  That top-flight talent was on display first with TE Leonard Hankerson's 35-yard catch and run TD, and then PR Thearon Collier's 60-yard punt return.  Virignia looked like they had both plays hemmed in before that talent took over. 
• Virginia couldn't kick or cover kicks in the first half, but special teams coach Ron Prince clearly saw a hole to exploit in the Canes' punt-blocking scheme.  Terrence Fells-Danzer's block set up Virginia's first touchdown, and then Trey Womack's block led directly to Billy Schautz's return TD.   
• Virginia needed both, as their offense went back to its conservative roots with Marc Verica running the offense.  The Hoos ran the ball effectively, but were awful on third down (2-for-12 for the game) and thus unable to sustain drives. 
• Verica was a brutal 11-29 for 75 yards passing.  If Sewell wasn't healthy, which wasn't reported late in the week but was apparently known by the coaching staff since the Duke game, someone needs to explain to me why Vic Hall too ZERO snaps at QB, as was reported by the TV crew doing the game.  They could have used some of his escapability against that speedy Miami defense.
• Finally, Al Groh produced his second quote in the last week to explain away his team's performace with a lack of talent.  Earlier in the week, Groh was quoted as saying that you can't force an identity without the skills to match it.  After the Miami game, explaining why Wake Forest racked up 515 yards of offense against Miami's porous D while Virginia mustered little, Groh said, "They've got Riley Skinner," referring to the Deacs' QB.  Unfortunately for Groh, he's ultimately responsible for the lack of talent he now sees in Charlottesville.  Fortunately for the rest of us, its inconceivable that he'll be responsible for it much longer.  

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Doing What You Need to Do, Not What You Want to Do

As you've probably noticed, we've been a little thin on content the last few weeks here at the 7even Win Society.  We had grand plans to discuss whether the University's academic standards excuse Virginia's poor recruiting (as Groh hinted at during a press conference a few weeks back), perhaps look into how a few rumored coaching candidates are doing these days (because the end for Groh is all but certain to be nearing, no?), and maybe even start up some basketball banter (because we can't wait for a team that offers some hope).  But things like work, school, and family intervene sometimes, and you gotta do what you gotta do, not what you want to do.  (Don't worry, though, those posts are coming).

Unfortunately, while the scribes of the 7even Win Society did what we needed to do, not what we wanted to do in the last few weeks, Al Groh hasn't.  During a modest three-game winning streak, Coach Groh went to a gameplan that a talent-deprived roster had to in order to win some games -- play close to the vest offensively by running the ball, and rely on the team's relative strength on defense.  It was ironic and downright defiant, since Groh had been forced during the offseason to fire his own son and hire Gregg Brandon to revolutionize Virginia's offense.  But reverting back to his conservative roots is what Groh needed to do, and he seemed to be saying, starting with that game at Chapel Hill when Virginia ran the ball 43 times v. 27 pass attempts, that if he was going down, Groh was going down his way.

Groh followed the script the next two weeks.  Against an overmatched Indiana team, Virginia ran the ball 45 times to 31 passes.  Then, against a pass happy Terp squad on a muddy track, the Cavs ran the ball 38 times to 26 passes even though they were only averaging 1.7 yards a carry.  Nate Collins made good on that strategy when he snatched a Chris Turner pass out of mid-air and ran it back for a TD, just as Collins and Chase Minnifield had by forcing an interception that led to a game-clinching TD in Chapel Hill.  It wasn't pretty, but it was winning football.

So its been mind-boggling to watch the Hoos decide they're a passing team again the last few weeks.  Against Ga. Tech, Virginia ran the ball only 12 times, only 7 of which were RB carries.  It was a game that screamed out for Virginia to protect its defense, which bent but did not break in the first half against the Jackets' vaunted running game.  But with no time to recover, because Virginia was passing the ball, time of possession be damned (GT 42:43, Virginia 17:17), the defense predictably wore down.  But hey, you play to win the game, and perhaps the Virginia coaching staff thought it had to score to keep up with the Ramblin' Wreck.  Not that its offense has consistently scored by passing, mind you, but I was willing to give Groh a mulligan, since it was hard to see how Virginia wins that game regardless of the offensive strategy.

Duke was another matter.  Game in doubt throughout, and a game Virginia led early in the fourth quarter.  What's the breakdown?  Runs 28, Passes 38.  In a game in which Virginia's running backs averaged 5 yards a carry, no less, and Sewell and Verica were putting together a stinkfest passing (107 yards for the game).  

But Virginia still has time to redeem itself, or so we thought.  Duke scores the go-ahead TD to take a 18-17 lead.  3:45 left.  Plenty of time under college rules, where the clock stops after every first down and you still have a timeout.  The play calls where the running game has worked, but the passing hasn't?  Three passes, two incompletions and a sack that forces a fumble returned for a TD.  That's OK.  Still only down one score.  You now need a TD, but a Minnifield return has just set you up with good field position at the VA 39.  And there's still an eternity left -- 3:22.  Calls?  Four more passes, three incompletions, one sack on fourth down.  A mind-numbing 28-17 loss to Duke at home.

I bring this up not to second-guess the play-calling (OK, maybe I am a little bit), but as a reminder with a trip to Miami and Heisman-candidate Jacory Harris looming on Saturday.  The Canes average 388 yards of offense per game, and have scored more than 27 points in all but two games this season, a number Virginia itself has eclipsed twice all season.  Let's not pretend the Cavs can score with Miami; they can't.  Virginia ranks dead last in the ACC in scoring and total offense.

But the two teams that have held the Canes under 27 had one thing in common -- they ran the ball.  In a September slogfest in Blacksburg, Virginia Tech ran the ball 55 times to 9 passes, and crushed the previously unbeaten Canes.  Then, playing without Heisman coverboy Sam Bradford, Oklahoma broke tendency and ran the ball 42 times to 30 passes against Miami.  The Sooners didn't win, but hung around until the very end in a 21-20 squeaker.  Now, I'm not suggesting the Hoos can run the ball like those two national powers -- they can't -- but if the last two weeks have proven anything, its that Virginia can't win by abandoning the run for a mediocre at-best passing attack.  Let's hope this Saturday, Virginia does what it needs to do, not what it might want to do.      Continue reading this post...