Congratulations, You're Still a Basketball Conference

When the Cavaliers make this weekend's trip down to Chapel Hill, you know as a football fan that the Tar Heels return trip won't occur until next season.  And that's OK, its the nature of football scheduling.  But it reminds me that when the basketball team makes a similar trip in late January, UNC will, as in football, not be making the return trip until the following season.  Similarly, Duke will be gracing the confines of the JPJ this season, but there will be no return trip to Cameron until 2011.  It begs the question -- we're giving that up for what exactly?

Six years ago, the Atlantic Coast Conference expanded its membership to twelve teams.  In came Miami, Virginia Tech, and (out of left field) Boston College.  The idea was to make the ACC a major football conference, complete with large TV contract, annual conference championship game, and more BCS bowl game appearances.  There were rumblings from the likes of Mike Krzyzewski and Gary Williams that it would be bad for the gold standard that is ACC Basketball, but after college presidents reminded them who paid their checks those criticisms largely fell by the wayside. 

Expectations were that this might finally be the year that the ACC lived up to that master plan.  Four teams cracked the Preseason AP Top 25, and a number of other programs, including Clemson and the U, were supposed to make strides back towards respectability.  It was thought that 2009 at least had to be better than 2008, when mediocrity reigned.  No ACC team finished better than 5-3 in the conference, a four-loss Va. Tech team went to the Orange Bowl, and a 7-5 Clemson team went to the Gator.  

It hasn't happened.  On opening weekend, Alabama ran over Virginia Tech, Cal thumped Maryland, and perennial Big 12 Doormat Baylor beat Wake Forest.  And that wasn't even the worst of it.  Duke and Virginia (as we all remember) lost to 1-AA teams.  It hasn't gotten better since Week 1.  Mountain West stalwart TCU now has a pair of road wins against ACC teams on its resume.  Maryland lost (again) to Middle Tennessee State.  Florida State was dropped by S. Fla. over the weekend.  And after all the noise about Miami's revival, it appears they were just beating up on fellow ACC weaklings in light of Va. Tech's demolition of the Canes this past weekend. 

So on January 5, 2010, some middling ACC team, who will have won a conference championship game that won't come close to selling out, will get to play the Big East Champion or an at-large opponent in a meaningless bowl game.  And seven or eight other schools will get to go to contracted bowls too, all the way down to the Eagle Bank Bowl in D.C.  College athletic departments will rake in more money, and the ACC can call itself a football conference when it goes 4-4 in bowl play (even though two or three of those wins will come against MAC teams or service academies). And everyone can look forward to next football season, when the U might really be back, or Florida State might return to national prominence, or Butch Davis might complete the turnaround in Chapel Hill, or Va. Tech might stay healthy.    

Among all those mights, Sylven Landesberg will be looking forward to what might be his only trip to the cathedral that is the Dean Dome, or preparing for what might be his one chance to help vanquish Duke on his team's home floor.  Of course, he'll get to play Virginia Tech, Maryland, N.C. State, and Miami twice each this season.  I'm sure that's the ACC Basketball he was looking forward to when he signed his LOI.  But hey, Wake Forest might get to play football in D.C. in December.   

So again I ask, the ACC did this for what exactly? Continue reading this post...

Memory Lane: The South's Oldest Rivalry

The Hoos and the Heels first butted heads in 1892, and will meet for the 114th time Saturday.  For those of you who've forgotten what its like for Virginia to win a game (its been 11 months), a number of the more recent meetings with North Carolina have resulted in unexpected victories.  So think positive thoughts for Saturday, and step away from the Jack Daniels (well, better keep it close by just in case).  Some of the highlights:

4. 2007: Cedric Peerman rushed for 186 yards, Chris Long snatched a pass out of midair for a highlight-reel int, and Nate Collins batted down a a two-point conversion with less than two minutes to go to preserve a 22-20 victory in Butch Davis' introduction to the rivalry.

3. 2002: The outcome itself wasn't surprising, but that was before North Carolina took a 21-0 lead into the locker room at halftime. Marquis Weeks returned the second half opening kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown, and QB Matt Schaub took it from there, throwing a pair of TD passes, the second of which put the Cavs ahead 28-21 in the fourth quarter. Virignia scored 37 unanswered points in the second half before a purely cosmetic Heels TD provided for the 37-27 final margin. It was the second biggest comeback in UVA history.

2. 2008: After Virginia rebounded from a poor early season start with back-to-back wins against Maryland and ECU, things were supposed to come crashing back down to earth against No. 18 North Carolina.  The Carolina defense was stout, but the Hoos largely matched them after allowing a TD on the opening drive.  That set up QB Marc Verica to march the Hoos down the field in the last two minutes.  RB Cedric Peerman finished the Hoos first TD drive of the game with a 2-yard TD run with :47 to go to force overtime.  Then, in overtime, Verica set the table again with a 19-yard pass to TE John Phillips.  Peerman closed the deal, and a 16-13 OT win, with another 2-yard TD run.  If you're the YouTube type, click here for game highlights.

1. 1996: It was supposed to be a rout.  Virginia entered the game a respectable 6-3, but highly-ranked UNC was looking to lock up a "Bowl Alliance" bid.  The game was going as expected with the Heels leading 17-3, and knocking on the door again to put the game away.  Then Antawn Harris stepped in front of a pass in the flat and returned it 100 yards for a touchdown.  The shell-shocked Heels never recovered, and lost 20-17.  Continue reading this post...

The Case FOR Al Groh

As you can probably guess, we're not huge fans of Al Groh around here, or at the very least, aren't fans of keeping someone around who clearly isn't your guy.  But here at the 7even Win Society, we're always interested in looking at the other side of any issue.  And on this front, the case FOR Al Groh is a little stronger than you might think.  Not that we'd keep him, mind you, but some things to think about:

(1) The Man Can Coach: The occasional complete head-scratcher aside, no one doubts Coach Groh's ability to coach the game, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  His recent adjustments to the Cavaliers' offense only reinforces those credentials.

He's won ACC Coach of the Year twice, in 2002 and 2007.  And the results, over the course of a decade, have been solid.  After an initial 5-7 season, Groh led the Cavs to four straight bowl game appearances.  No one questioned at that time whether the program was headed in the right direction, only (like under Welsh) whether it could make the leap to the next level.  Meanwhile, people were stealing assistants left and right.  Bill Musgrave went to the NFL to be an OC in 2003.  Ron Prince picked up the offensive without missing a beat.  Then he went to Kansas State in 2006.  Al Golden left for Temple in 2005.  All were solid lieutenants, but its hard to attribute too much of the Cavs' success to those men.  Musgrave is now coaching quarterbacks, not calling plays. Prince is back in C'ville coaching special teams.  Golden has yet to break .500 at Temple. 

No, the constant has been Groh.  Nonetheless, in 2007, si.com called Groh the worst coach in college football.  By the end of the season, si.com was eating those words, admitting that "there's no question he's gotten every ounce out of that team," and revisited his preseason column by stating "I ended up going with Groh, and obviously he's the one who's most proven it wrong."  Whether you like him or not, most people would agree that he gets everything out of the kids he's coaching. 

But this is college, not the NFL.  If the players aren't good enough, that's his fault, right?  Well...

(2) You say He Can't Recruit, But There Are A Bunch of Former Hoos in the NFL Who Suggest Otherwise: As Doug Doughty noted a few years back, you might be surprised how Virginia players have fared at the next level compared to Virginia Tech, which is generally viewed as having outrecruited the Hoos for years now.  Its no longer true that Virginia has more NFL players on active rosters than the Hokies, but the spread is only two (25 to 23).  A skeptic might point out (and be right) that some of the current Virginia alums playing in the NFL were recruited by George Welsh, but let's remember that the same charge - he can't recruit - was often leveled against him. 

What about elite talent, you might ask?  Well, if you are asking that question, you clearly haven't been paying attention to the last few drafts.  Having a Hoo picked in the first round has almost become an annual rite.  Eugene Monroe (right) is just the latest example (No. 8 to the Jags in 2009).  In 2008, two Cavs went in the first round -- Chris Long at No. 2 to the Rams and Branden Albert at No. 15 to the Chiefs.  D'Brickashaw Ferguson went No. 4 to the Jets in 2006, and Heath Miller just snuck into the first round at No. 30 to the Steelers in 2005. 

Add to that a handful of players who have been picked in the later rounds but have stuck as starters (OT Brad Butler, OG Elton Brown, and DE Chris Canty) and a few others that had the talent to do so (LBs Ahmad Brooks and Darryl Blackstock come to mind), and you've got a solid stable of talent.  It should also be noted that of Virginia's 2009 draft class, all four players who were drafted made NFL rosters, and a fifth - WR Kevin Ogletree - made the Cowboys as an undrafted free agent. 

(3) He Has Been the Victim of Circumstance At the Most Important Position on the Field: After the 2006 graduation of QB Marques Hagans, who led to the Hoos to consecutive bowl games as a starter, Virginia turned to Christian Olsen, a once-heralded recruit who had transferred from Notre Dame, but he quickly flopped.  By Week 4, the Hoos had turned to a true freshman named Jameel Sewell, who showed flashes of brilliance.  But with a rookie signal-caller leading the way, Virginia predictably finished 5-7, and did not make a bowl for the first time in five years.   

With a year under his belt, and stalwart defense led by Chris Long on the other side of the ball, Sewell helped lead a revival in 2007.  The Cavs, picked by many to be no better than a middle of the pack team in the ACC, was in contention for the ACC crown throughout the season, and was 9-2 heading into a season finale showdown with Virginia Tech and a trip to the ACC Championship game on the line.  The matter was in doubt into the fourth quarter when Sewell left the game temporarily with an injury.  The Hoos would not score again.  However, UVA still earned a berth in a New Year's Day Bowl -- the Gator against Texas Tech -- for the first time since 1994.

Things looked secure at the QB spot in 2008, with Sewell returning as a two-year starter, and highly-touted Peter Lalich, who had played as a true freshman, backing him up.  But Sewell was declared academically ineligible, and Lalich, amidst myriad allegations of wrongdoing, was eventually dismissed from the team and decided to transfer to Oregon State.  That left Virginia with third-stringer Marc Verica at QB, and a pair of embarrasing (but predictable) losses at Connecticut and at Duke.  Nonetheless, the Cavs rallied for four straight wins in October, including a pair of wins against ranked opponents North Carolina and Georgia Tech.  Needing only one more win to secure an unlikely bowl berth, the Cavs fell short in OT against Miami, and then lost its last three, including a game effort at Blacksburg in a 17-14 loss that saw converted CB Vic Hall almost Wildcat the Hoos to victory against a superior opponent. 

We, of course, don't know how Virginia would have done with more stability at the QB position in 2006 and 2008.  We're just saying its a little too easy to pin the failures of those seasons on Groh when he was playing short-handed at the most important position on the field. 

(4) We're Not Sure Virginia Could Do Any Better:  When the Hoos went searching for a replacement for George Welsh after the 2000 season, let's remember that it wasn't an easy search.  It won't be any easier this time around.  Is Virginia going to drop its academic standards for recruits?  Unlikely.  Does it still have to fight tooth and nail for in-state recruits with Virginia Tech, who has dominated the state recruiting-wise for years?  Yes, until Frank Beamer calls it quits.  Does it also have to contend with previously sleeping giants to the south (Butch Davis at North Carolina) and west (Lane Kiffin at Tennessee) for recruits?  Yep.  Is the Virginia fan base going to start travelling better, thus ensuring better bowl berths?  I'll let you answer that one.   

Yes, we'd all like to think that Virginia should do better.  But I'm not sure there's much evidence supporting those aspirations.  And all of the above considerations will be on any prospective coach's mind before he signs on the dotted line. 

And I'll leave you with this.  Its said that those who do not learn from the lessons of history are bound to repeat them.  Once upon a time, Virginia had to replace an iconic coach who had built a major program from the ground up.  It turned to one of its own to fill the void.  That coach led the Hoos to the postseason in four of his first five, and five of his first seven, seasons.  After the wheels came off in two of his last three seasons, Virginia fired that coach.  His name was Jeff Jones.

I issue that reminder not to say that the decision to fire Jones was a mistake, or that it would be a mistake to do the same to Groh.  Virginia had reasons beyond performance to part ways with Jones, just as it has reasons beyond performance to fire Groh.  But Jones was also known as a guy who got every ounce out of his players, but couldn't recruit.  Yet people forget that towards the end of his tenure, he brought Courtney Alexander to UVA (only to see him transfer to Fresno State before heading to the NBA) and was in the process of bringing a badly needed big man on campus until Melvin Whitaker decided a pick-up basketball game was important enough to slash someone in the face.  So like Groh, he has in part been the victim of circumstance, and the results he has achieved are eerily similar to Groh's.

So when people say to fire Al Groh, remember that after firing Jones, it has taken we hope only ten years to get it right after him.  People thought the program was in the wilderness under Jones too, but his results (five NCAA tournaments in eight years) look awfully good next to the men who replaced him (Gillen 1 in 7, and Leitao 1 in 4).  So if you think Virginia football is in the wilderness now (five bowl trips in eight seasons), let's just say you may not have seen anything yet.  Maybe, just maybe, you don't want to find out.    Continue reading this post...

Welcome to Hattiesburg

At our weekly Seven Win Society meetings in our red-bricked, white-columned lair on an otherwise nondescript Charlottesville street, I often rail about Virginia's schedule, and it finally got to the point where Red4z told me to stop complaining generally and actually make a coherent argument. Everybody knows that Virginia's trip to Southern Miss (and Wyoming before that, and Middle Tennessee State before that) were likely as not to end poorly. So what?

Coaches and athletics directors often like to act like building a schedule is subject to the whims of fate, that games materialize and disappear at random. I'm sure to some extent that's true, that things change (often at the last minute), resulting in compromises that make few people happy. But then there's Virginia's schedule, which has been a hodgepodge of undesirable opponents (from a marquee standpoint) and horrible road trips for awhile now.

The bottom line is this: Virginia's schedule has been a cause for anger among its fans for the past five years---and that's before the Cavaliers have stepped on the field, let alone after---and shows a lack of critical skills required for the job either on the part of Al Groh or Jon Oliver, the assistant AD who usually answers questions about such things.

Back in the Welsh days, it seemed pretty consistent how Virginia filled out its 11-game schedule: 8 ACC games, Virginia Tech to end the year, a known quantity nonconference opponent (either a BCS team or an established program like BYU) and a I-AA team or a I-A scrub to round things out in September. Virginia rarely went west of the Mississippi, and, most importantly, never played beneath its station on the road.

Now, considerations of how low exactly is Virginia's station aside, the answer as to why the hell Virginia played at Southern Miss last weekend remains unsatisfying to me. More than that, it remains a fairly unexamined heavy criticism of either Al Groh or Jon Oliver or both.

Let's get this story straight: the MAC said it'd give anybody three home games if you'd go TO Middle Tennessee State. Virginia went to Middle Tennessee State. Then the MAC called up UVa and said, sorry, man, no can do on the three home games from one of our 13(!) teams. Everybody's dance card was full, so UVa agreed to do a home-and-home with Southern Miss---except Southern Miss gets the first home game?

This begs the natural question: is Jon Oliver or Al Groh or whoever agrees to these deals a bigger sucker or fool? What exactly is to stop Southern Miss from canceling on Virginia at the last minute in 2011? Our fierce team of litigators which enforced the contracts we (presumably) signed with the MAC?

Presuming Groh had a high measure of control over the schedule starting in 2004, resulting nonconference schedules that have looked like this:
2004: At Temple, Akron, Syracuse.
2005: Western Michigan, at Syracuse, Temple.
2006: At Pittsburgh, Wyoming, Western Michigan, at East Carolina
2007: At Wyoming, Pittsburgh, at Middle Tennessee State, UConn
2008: USC, Richmond, at UConn, East Carolina
2009: W&M, TCU, at Southern Miss, Indiana

Some thoughts:

1) Obviously with the 12-game schedule, a I-AA game against an in-state opponent (likely with a Southern Conference team like the Citadel, Wofford or Furman mixed in from time to time) is going to be a part of the agenda from now on. Even more obviously, Virginia needs to schedule VMI or somebody that has even LESS of a chance of winning than W&M did, because apparently we can't do anything right.

2) Syracuse and Pitt are no-brainers, same as Indiana---these are meat-and-potatoes games.

3) The USC game is awesome, even if Virginia's outscored by 100, because it's USC, and the helmets, and the Song Girls, and that's awesome.

4) I even buy a home-and-home with Temple, because there's a lot of people in the Northeast that went to Virginia that can get to a game more easily in that half-empty stadium, and because most people forget that they got dumped to the MAC.

5) MAC teams at home, even those with a chance of winning, need to be welcomed, because I'm not unrealistic in thinking that there's a finite number of I-A teams, and there's no way somebody could be so diligent as to schedule the worst teams in the MAC and Sun Belt year after year. I get why the Middle Tennessee State deal looked good---I don't get why it wasn't enforced.

6) A home-and-home against ECU might well be a necessary (and convenient) evil---the Pirates are a decent-to-good program, are (relatively) close by, though Greenville's about as far from anything as anywhere within the ACC "footprint."

I'd say a reasonably competent athletics department consistently can get 1-5 right every year, and a very good AD can avoid ECU in favor of a bottom-rung Big East or Big 10 program. That's nothing against ECU, they've clearly accomplished more than Virginia recently, but Greenville is not a good trip to make if you can avoid it and there is not much more upside to beating ECU than there would be to beating a bad Big 10 or Big East team in the grand scheme of things, and a lot more downside, and that's not including spending time in eastern North Carolina, which is a downside in and of itself. ECU is clearly good enough (as is Wyoming) to demand a home-and-home, but it's still a great move for Virginia.

And yet....
At Middle Tennessee State, home-and-home with Wyoming, at Southern Miss. Three seasons begun on the road.

Good BCS conference programs don't do these things. They don't travel across the Mississippi to play at altitude. They don't travel to Mississippi to play an afternoon game in mid-September. They don't travel to Murfreesboro, Tennessee. (By the way, more people attend MTSU than attend UVa. So don't get too snooty.)
Two of these four games ended in easily-predicted disaster, and another nearly did, and it's almost egregious enough to give Groh a pass on those games if scheduling responsibility belonged to Oliver instead of Groh. Almost enough.

Now, let's compare that to three conference schools with (roughly) similar profiles program-wise, Maryland, UNC and NC State (we stopped being Virginia Tech's peer a long time ago):

Maryland:
2004: Northern Illinois, Temple, at West Virginia
2005: Navy (in Baltimore), West Virginia, at Temple
2006: W&M, Middle Tennessee State, at West Virginia, Florida International
2007: Villanova, at Florida International, West Virginia, at Rutgers
2008: Delaware, at Middle Tennessee State, California, Eastern Michigan
2009: at California, JMU, Middle Tennessee State, Rutgers
Future commitments*: Towson, Rhode Island, Navy in Baltimore, Eastern Michigan, home-and-homes with Temple, West Virginia, Connecticut.
A big thumbs' down on the at MTSU game---man, did those MAC officials work over the ACC or what?The West Virginia series was awesome for awhile. The Cal series is fine despite a long road trip, because, a) it's a Pac 10 team; b) it's at sea level. One objectively bad game, and only one season begun on the road.

UNC:
2004: W&M, Louisville, at Utah
2005: Wisconsin, Utah, at Louisville
2006: Rutgers, Furman, South Florida, at Notre Dame
2007: JMU, at East Carolina, at South Florida, South Carolina
2008: McNeese State, at Rutgers, UConn, Notre Dame
2009: The Citadel, at UConn, East Carolina, Georgia Southern
Future commitments: W&M, JMU, return trip to South Carolina, home-and-homes with Rutgers, East Carolina, Tennessee and Minnesota.
Not sure about a home-and-home at Utah during the 11-game era, but otherwise good scheduling by any reasonable definition---no road games to open the season, notice.

NC State:
2004: Richmond, Ohio State, at East Carolina
2005: Eastern Kentucky, Southern Miss, Middle Tennessee State
2006: Appalachian State, Akron, at Southern Miss, East Carolina
2007: UCF, Wofford, Louisville, at East Carolina
2008: at South Carolina, W&M, East Carolina, South Florida
2009: South Carolina, Murray State, Gardner-Webb, Pittsburgh
Future commitments: a trip to UConn, return trips to UCF, South Florida and Pittsburgh, home-and-homes with Cincinnati, South Alabama (in its second and third years in I-A), East Carolina, and a neutral site game with Tennessee.

The loss at Southern Miss in 2006 in mid-September should have provided a cautionary tale for Virginia, but one key factor not to ignore here: Southern Miss came to NC State FIRST. Otherwise, little to quibble with here, including but one road game to open the season (in a year with three nonconference home games).

In short, I would say that each of these three teams made one of Virginia's mistakes over the past five years, but none made two, and none began more than one season with a nonconference road game. (Maryland had a neutral site game in Baltimore against Navy, and a road game at Cal, but that is a minor quibble compared to Virginia).

A pattern seems to have emerged among these schools in the 12-game era: 8 conference games, one BCS opponent, one I-AA game, and two mid-major(MAC or Sun Belt) or near-major (MWC, WAC, Conference USA) I-A games. That seems reasonable enough to me.
Virginia's future commitments---to Richmond, a home-and-home against Penn State in 2012/14, return trips to USC and Indiana, a visit from Southern Miss in 2011---appear heading in the right direction, but there are a lot more gaps on its calendar than for the other teams. Particularly worrisome is the ever-present threat by the NCAA to reinstate the old rule of counting a I-AA win for bowl eligibility only once per four years, thus making I-A games harder to come by.

The bottom line is this: Virginia's athletics department has had a demonstrable critical failure of planning for years now, putting its football team in a bad position before it takes the field. It can argue that it was at the mercy of circumstances beyond its control, but it finds itself in that position far more than peer schools (beyond just the sample of three above). If the failing is Groh's, fine, add it to the list of black marks next to his tenure. If the failing is Oliver's, that needs to be addressed either by changing his responsibility or at least by him acknowledging the poor job the program has done over the past five years and the lessons learned in the interim. Either way, the lack of accountability is striking and endemic within the program, and it's further evidence (as if any were needed) that change needs to come, sooner rather than later, and it likely needs to spread beyond just the football coach's office.

*---Future commitments can be found here.

Continue reading this post...

Some Signs of Life, but Still No W

It wasn't unwatchable this week (well, unless you don't get College Sports TV, one of the only networks to be offered in less households than ESPN U Don't Get It).  For those of you who could watch, you were treated to non-stop cliches from Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila's younger brother Akbar, who was "analyzing" the game for CSTV.  O where, o where have you gone, Mac McDonald.

Some thoughts on the game: 

• Al Groh attempted to take control of his own fate this week, ditching parts of the spread while reinstalling more traditional pro sets.  The result was 268 first half yards, an offense that outgained USM for the game, and 25 first downs, six more than the Hoos had in their first two games combined. 
• But Virginia did appear to return to more spread-like playcalling in the 2nd half, particularly in the way they ran the football, to their detriment.  Notably, Cavalier RBs had 13 carries to Sewell's nine in the first half.  Relying more on RB runs also set up play action, including a 69-yard TD bomb to Tim Smith in the first half.  But after a handful of Sewell draws led to a late touchdown in the first half, the Hoos seemed to fall in love with the QB run, to the tune of 14 second half carries for Sewell against only seven RB carries.  It was effective at times (Sewell did finish with 79 rushing yards), but the proof is in the pudding - 27 first-half points to 7 in the second.     
• Hootie aptly noted last week that the Hoos' offensive problems start in the trenches.  The o-line was better against USM, which Hootie attributed to ditching the wider splits usually associated with the spread. 
• The D-line was not.  When Damion Fletcher decided to serve notice that he was the best player on the field, the Cavs' D did little to stop him.  The senior back, who will play on Sundays, finished with 26 carries for 132 yards, but it was his counterpart in the wildcat formation, Tory Harrison, who broke the Cavs' back with a 57-yard touchdown run that proved to be the decisive score.
• The Hoos were helped by some sloppy play by the Golden Eagles early in the game.  A pair of fumbles in their own end, which were more given away than forced, led to a pair of UVA FGs. Unfortunately, the final result would probably have been different if Virginia finished those drives off turnovers with TDs instead of stalling inside the USM 20 and settling for FGs.    
• Welcome back to relevance Jared Green.  Darrell's son had 5 catches for 30 yards.  Four of those catches resulted in first downs.  
• Chris Cook missed the contest with a groin injury. And in what is becoming a familar refrain, Mikell Simpson also missed the game with an injury, this time with a bruised shin.
• Finally, the last two times Virginia had gone 0-2 to start a season, the Cavs won their third game en route to a bowl game berth.  In Groh's second season in 2002, the Cavs lost their first two to Colorado State and Florida State, but rebounded to finish 9-5.  The last time before that Virginia lost its first two was 1987, when George Welsh led the Hoos to an 8-4 mark after dropping a pair to Georgia and Maryland.  Now that the Cavs have broken that trend, its probably time to settle in for a long season ... and ask when basketball season starts.    

Continue reading this post...

Pack the Road Whites

It’s only the third game of the season, and for some reason, it feels like we have been stuck in the twilight zone for ages. William and Mary’s game clinching pick six made Sportscenter’s top plays and last Saturday's infamous Cavalier tossing has garnered more attention than the Hoos’ actual on-field play. Furthermore, mention Virginia football and the conversation almost always ends with, “don’t fear, at least U2 is coming to Scott Stadium.”

So, while Cavalier fans should essentially continue to expect the unexpected, it also makes sense to take a look at the few things we do know. In a pair of firsts, Virginia’s first road game of the season and their first-ever trip to Hattiesburg, Virginia faces Southern Miss. on Saturday. Looking to avoid their first 0-3 start since the beginning of the Welsh era, UVa treks to the friendly confines of “The Rock” to square off with the undefeated Golden Eagles. Sadly, the Cavs would likely describe anywhere other than Scott Stadium as “friendly confines.” 

After going 7-6 in 2008, their first season under head coach Larry Fedora, USM entered the 2009 campaign expecting to contend for its first Conference USA title since 2003. The Golden Eagles closed out last season with five straight wins, and so far this year, they have picked up right where they left off. After thrashing in-state foe Alcorn State 52-0 to open the season, USM picked up their first conference win last Saturday by defeating UCF 26-19. The Golden Eagles are off to their first 2-0 start since ’04 and they are currently riding a seven game winning streak (spanning back to last season). So far, the young ‘09 season has been highlighted by statistically impressive play on both sides of the ball.

Sure, USM padded their stats a bit against Alcorn State (630 total yards), but still, the Golden Eagles are averaging 507.5 yards of total offense per game, which is good for 13th in the nation. Sophomore QB Austin Davis has already thrown for 470 yards on the season with 4 TD’s, no picks, and a QB rating of 169.1. Unlike Virginia’s signal callers, accuracy proves a strength for Davis who boasts a stout 75% completion rate on the year.

Senior tailback Damion Fletcher is looking to become only the ninth player in NCAA history to run for over 1,000 yards in four consecutives seasons amidst difficult circumstances. Fletcher is already well on his way, amassing 229 through the first two games while averaging 5.7 yards per carry.

After missing the Alcorn State game, prime target DeAndre Brown posted a solid effort against UCF finishing the day with 7 catches for 75 yards. A freshman All-America in 2008, The Post notes Brown is regarded as one of the top receivers in the country and looks to be back in form after breaking his leg in last year’s New Orleans Bowl. Entering the season, Cavalier fans might have figured its secondary, the so-called bright spot of the defense, and lock-down corner Ras-I Dowling would be up to challenge in defending Brown. However, after two anemic performances from that group, you can expect USM to go to Brown early and often.

Speaking of defense, USM has a solid unit anchored by eight returning starters from a year ago. In 2009, the Golden Eagles have held opponents to 182.5 yard of total offense per game (the shutout against Alcorn State certainly helped the cause) which ranks 9th in the NCAA. Last week against UCF, the defense allowed only 15 rushing yards on 27 attempts and gave up a mere 179 yards through the air. At least on paper, USM’s defensive numbers don’t bode well for a Virginia squad that once again ranks near the bottom of the NCAA in total offense.

For the second straight week, the Hoos find themselves in ESPN's infamous Bottom 10. With an inept offense and shaky defense things likely won’t change unless the Cavs can unexpectedly put together a complete game on both sides of the ball. Then again, so far this season the unexpected is really about the only thing Virginia fans can count on. Continue reading this post...

An Open Letter to Craig Littlepage

Dear Mr. Littlepage:

For the last two weeks, Al Groh has been the subject of fans' criticism, scorn, and boos. Sometime in the next few months (or if unsubstantiated rumors are to be believed the next week), you'll begin the search for a new football coach, and the heat will be on you.   

To be sure, Virginia fans have unreasonable expectations. When a George Welsh-led football program won at least seven games from 1987-99, Virginia fans often complained that he couldn't get the program over the hump to being great, and cited his contemporaries (Georgia Tech's Co Nat'l Championship team in 1990, Mack Brown's 1997 UNC team that went 11-1, and Frank Beamer's pair of 11-1 squads in 1999 and 2000) as evidence that it should have been possible. Similarly, Virginia fans didn't fully appreciate its own Jeff Jones, who brought his team to the NCAA Tournament in his first five seasons, including an improbable run to the Elite Eight in 1995 behind one marginal NBA player (Junior Burrough) and a guard who got the absolute maxium out of his limited physical ability (Harold Deane). Since being shown the door here, Jones has made the Dance twice at former doormat American, while Virginia was either sitting at home or hosting CBI games.

But its been a tough couple of years, and that can humble a fan base.  They've lost to teams that don't belong on the same field or court as the University of Virginia. William & Mary is the most recent example, but its been too common in recent years: Liberty (Hoops '08), Wyoming (Football '07), Western Michigan (Football '06), Fordham (Hoops '05). They've been embarrassed by teams they should always be able to compete with, especially at home. A post-renovation low graced the confines of Scott Stadium Saturday because everyone else that thought about attending cringed at what they might see. Perhaps they had flashbacks to a pair of whippings by Xavier (the last two season in Hoops), a 35-point gridiron loss in 2008 at Connecticut, who just started a I-A program this decade, or a 25-point thrashing at the hands of a Dave Wannstedt-led Pittsburgh squad in 2007. And they've gotten their brains beat in by Virginia Tech. We'd like to beat Virginia Tech more than once a decade in football, and we'd like to beat their brains in in everything else.

In the meantime, we're happy you've built an Athletic Department that competes for the Director's Cup. We congratulate the ACC Champions in Tennis, Cross-Country, Swimming & Diving, Track & Field, and Baseball. We applaud the fact that our lacrosse and soccer teams regularly compete for NCAA titles. And we think its great that you've revitalized some programs (field hockey) and built others from the ground up (rowing). But tennis and field hockey don't fill the stands, attract alumni donations, and generate money so all your others sports can compete on a national level.

Football and men's basketball do.  And fair or not, you won't be judged on building Stanford-East; you'll be judged on the successes and failures of the University's most visible programs.  And the blame for their present failures ultimately lies at the feet of the guy picking the men to run those programs.  You whiffed on your first big hire (Dave Leitao in 2005). The returns on Tony Bennett, the man you picked to replace him, have been good so far, but you'll have to deliver on your next hire if you want to avoid repeats of the sparse crowd you saw against TCU on Saturday.  We won't pretend to know for certain who the best man for the job is, although I'm sure we'll have our opinions.  But its on you to get it right.  Otherwise, there's plenty of room on that hot seat once Coach Groh vacates it.   

Signed,

The Scribes of the 7even Win Society

P.S. - if you do bring us the next George Welsh or Jeff Jones, we reserve the right to raise our expectations again.  Sorry, comes with the territory.      Continue reading this post...

On the Long and Winding Road to An Inevitable Coaching Change

For the eternal optimists among us, Saturday was yet another opportunity for an Al Groh-coached team to rebound from a jarring early season loss.  TCU was having none of it.  Some thoughts:

• QB Jameel Sewell will undoubtedly incur the wrath of most Virginia fans for the loss, but especially those who went to the game saw an O-line that didn't block (8 sacks) and receivers that got ZERO separation (2 catches for 9 yards before a pair of purely cosmetic TD catches late in the game against the Frogs' second-string D).  For those of you pining for Verica, he wouldn't have done much better against the rush Jerry Hughes & Co. were bringing.  At least Sewell could run for his life (21 carries for 35 net yards rushing).
• From Last Week's Head-Scratcher Dept.: One week after going with 3 QBs, and worse yet admitting that he planned to do so, Groh stuck with 1 signal-caller this week.  If it was such a good idea last week, why do a 180 the following week?  [Answer: it was a bad idea last week.] 
• From This Week's Head Scratcher Dept.: For those who noticed that the Hoos were letting the play clock run all the way down before snapping the ball, it was by design, said Groh, to keep down TCU's usual advantage in time of possession.  Coach, you win the time of possession battle by successfully running the ball and converting third downs, and stopping your opponent from doing the same, not by manufacturing that advantage.  Its not like the Hoos were playing the 2007 Patriots, and thus trying to keep them off the field.  I apologize to those who overheard me screaming at the radio during that answer in the post-game presser.
• The result of the HC's gimmick to try to win the time of possession battle?  TCU 34:49, Virginia 25:11.  Better luck next time, Coach.  Maybe the Hoos can ensure no worse than a tie in the turnover battle next week by taking a knee on every offensive play.  
• The defense was helped out early by a shaky opening game start by TCU QB Andy Dalton.  But when the Frogs committed to just running the ball late in the first half, they moved it at will and took a 14-0 lead into the locker room.  Not a good sign with run at will teams like Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech still on the schedule.
• Dalton was much sharper to open the second half.  Ras-I Dowling has the burn marks to prove it. 
• Mike London Watch: I can't help those who may be pining for the football program's version of Tubby Smith, but a pretty good coach is just down I-64 at the University of Richmond and did a pretty good job when he was here as the DC in C'ville.  A week after slaying their own ACC opponent (a 24-16 win at Duke), last year's FCS champions and this year's No. 1 FCS-ranked team won at Delaware in dramatic fashion.      
• Finally, at some point, they may have to fire Groh for the sake of the kids busting their butt to win games. It was hard to watch the majority of Virginia fans booing as the Cavaliers ran into the tunnel after a difficult first half.  I know most of them at least they were booing the coach, not the team, but tell that to a bunch of 18-22 year olds.  Cavalier fans are also talking with their wallet.  Saturday's official attendance of 48,366 was the lowest total since the latest renovation to Scott Stadium in 2000. 

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Know Your Enemy: The TCU Horned Frogs

Ugly SOB, isn't he? 

Since we have some idea what to dread expect from U.Va., time to turn to Virginia's opponent for the week: the TCU Horned Frogs.

• TCU finished 7th in the final AP poll a year ago after an 11-2 record out of the Mountain West Conference and a victory over previously unbeaten Boise State in the Poinsetta Bowl. 
• The Horned Frogs have yet to play a game this season, but their conference is looking pretty good so far after BYU’s upset of No. 3 Oklahoma last weekend.  TCU didn’t fare nearly as well against the Sooners last season, falling 35-10 in their only foray into major conference land. The Horned Frogs are upping the ante this season, following their trip to Charlottesville with a visit to Death Valley on September 26.
• The Frogs are coached by Gary Patterson, who worked his way up the coaching ladder the old-fashioned way.  Did I mention he's pretty good?  TCU is 73-27 since he took over in 2000 (Al Groh is 56-44 in that same span).
• TCU's hallmark, especially last season, is defense.  The Frogs led the nation in team defense a year ago (217.8 ypg), the third time they have led the nation in that category under Patterson.  They gave up a paltry 11.3 points per game last season (and that's with giving up 35 to Oklahoma).     

• The unquestioned star of that defense is rush end Jerry Hughes.  Keep your eye out for #98.  He's a monster.  6-3, 257, and speed to burn.  May have been a first-round pick last year, but decided to return for his senior season.  He's still projected as a first round pick, and if you have ESPN Insider, his draft profile can be found here. 
• But Hughes may have less help this year, as the Horned Frogs must replace seven defensive starters, including a pair of stud LBs that led the team in tackles last season.  The Post thinks they'll be fine, but will have to learn a bit on the fly.  May be that the first game is the best time to catch them.
• On offense, TCU likes to run the ball.  They averaged 220 ypg on the ground, 11th best in the nation in 2008.  Their leading rusher - Sr. Joseph Turner - returns, but the Frogs tend to employ a RB by committee, so you'll probably see multiple ball carriers tomorrow.
• TCU is led at QB by third-year starter Andy Dalton. He's more of a game-manager type (he only threw 5 picks in '08).  Dalton can also run it; he had 432 yards rushing and 8 rushing TDs last season.  But he may throw more in '09 because his receivers should be pretty good this season, led by Jr. Jimmy Young.  #88 caught 64 passes for 1,012 last season. 
• As the USA Today notes, in light of Virginia's loss against W&M, Saturday's showdown with the Hoos is now almost a no-win situation for the Horned Frogs.  Kind of like playing S. Miss., right? 

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Around Virginia Football

Surfing the interweb, picking out the best UVA stories of the week for your reading pleasure:

• As the DP notes, the defense was OK. Should have been better against a 1-AA opponent. 
• Hootie also chimes in to add that TCU Head Coach Gary Patterson is saying all the right things about a possible Virginia rebound. I think he’s more interested in routing a BCS Conference school on national television, and wants to make sure he gets maximum return on such a win.
• Doug Doughty sings the praises of Steve Greer, perhaps the next stud Cavalier LB. 
• Also in LB news, Mike Phillips over at the RTD notes that Cam Johnson didn’t start, but played a ton. Expect the true sophomore to continue to play more, especially on passing downs to get after the opposing QB.
• For those of you looking for a 2007-style renaissance, Norm Wood at the Daily Press reminds us that team had 19 returning starters, not 11 like the 2009 team.
• Finally, Paul Montana at the Sabre aptly notes that TCU was great last season in TO margin and time of possession. In light of UVA's performance against W&M, that doesn’t bode well for Saturday.

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Seriously, why on earth is Groh still the coach? No, seriously.

As red4z noted in yesterday’s post, it is too easy to simply write a “Fire Groh” post. But given that William & Mary sealed Al Groh’s fate, let’s get into the real question of the hour: why is he coaching against TCU? To me, it’s sort of the opposite of what Harry told Sally: when you figure out you don’t want to spend your Saturdays with someone, you want to stop spending your Saturdays with that person as soon as possible.

Groh coaching Saturday creates a lose-lose situation for both Groh and Virginia. If TCU and Southern Miss beat Virginia, it’s expected and the long march to December continues, tension mounting with each loss for when the hammer will drop.

If Virginia somehow manages to beat TCU or Southern Miss, it raises the possibility of Groh doing just enough to keep his job but not enough to actually get the program out of neutral, and puts off the inevitable for another year or two. The entire season becomes defined by the Groh Death Watch, which is a horrible way for the year to play out and does the school no public relations favors.

If, say, Ron Prince (the uninspiring but obvious choice) gets a battlefield promotion, and has the exact same best-case-scenario season that Groh would have had, it is a cause for excitement. Littlepage gets the chance to evaluate a candidate on the job, things start getting pointed towards the future a little earlier. If team stinks, it is not like anyone would have expected that results would have been far better WITH Groh, so there really is very little opportunity cost.

To be clear, losing to William & Mary IS a firing offense. Don’t give me any them-be-the-breaks, that’s-how-the-ball-bounces, they’re-a-I-AA-playoff-team bull. Yes, losing to I-AA teams happens. To badly-coached teams.


Virginia has much more talent in both quality and quantity than William & Mary. This is not an argument. There is a massive advantage in the number of scholarships a I-A team has versus a I-AA team, and it is incredibly unlikely that any player on William & Mary would have gone there if Virginia had offered an opportunity.

Now, I would not doubt that a half-dozen players on William & Mary are better than many players on Virginia’s roster, maybe even a dozen players are better. But even if those players are perfectly distributed in impact positions (quarterback, receiver, offensive and defensive backfield, left tackle, right end, etc.), Virginia’s overall superiority in talent should have persevered in the end. With relative ease.

Or, think about it this way: if Virginia and W&M are remotely equal in talent, that means that Groh is either INCREDIBLY deficient at recruiting and/or developing talent, OR that William & Mary’s coaching staff is VASTLY superior tactically than Groh. Either way, it’s damning.

The “Virginia has turned things around before” chorus is not a good counterpoint. Any program that has this much experience at “turning things around” from terrible starts has some serious problems. The argument of “We Play Better with Our Backs Against the Wall” implies that a team gets its back to the wall often enough to have a well-established track record there---and I’m looking at you, Washington Capitals. Good teams don’t do that. Good teams win enough not to constantly put themselves in the position of needing to win.

Also, it’s not like Virginia isn’t bound to play better after playing so poorly. Virginia played terribly on Saturday, and it will play better at some point in the near future simply because the Cavaliers are not truly THAT bad, just as they weren’t as bad as they looked against Wyoming and Directional Michigan and USC and even Richmond and all the other craptastic early season performances in years past. Regression towards the mean dictates that teams tend towards their true ability in the long run, and by starting out poorly year after year, Virginia really has nowhere to regress but up.

So, Virginia WILL play better, and it will have little to do with Groh; it’ll play better because it IS a better team than it looked like. (Additionally, some amount of randomness went into that turd of a performance last Saturday, though not enough to compensate for the loss). This natural tendency to “improve” only increases the danger of Groh winning six or seven games and creating a narrative that gives Littlepage cover to keep Groh.

This is not a Steinbrennerian (Snyderian?) spur-of-the-moment decision. Groh’s been coach FOR EIGHT YEARS. Freshmen and sophomores in high school don’t remember George Welsh coaching Virginia. If those freshmen and sophomores happen to run a sub-4.5 40-yard-dash, they can use a reason to pay attention.

It’s not hasty to fire Groh now, even if it’s in midseason. It’s set against a backdrop of questionable and alienating moves since almost day one, ranging from the not-go-for-two decision against Wisconsin (which was perhaps the first step on the slippery slope to where we’re at) to the bizarre scheduling choices, to the losses to the teams scheduled in the bizarre scheduling choices, to the problematic drain of talent both of coaches and player off-field issues. Any semblance of a relationship with the fans is gone, setting up a perverse incentive to root against a sixth win (were there to be a miracle and Virginia to reach that point) to ensure that Littlepage can’t rehire him without facing a riot.

Groh has defenders, not supporters, at this point.

The two most similar decisions that leap to my mind (though others I’m sure are out there), are Frank Broyles firing Jack Crowe after Arkansas lost to the Citadel in an opener in the early 1990s and Clemson canning Tommy Bowden after a month last year. The Citadel was similarly I-AA, and while expectations are presumably higher at both programs (they’ve both won national titles, after all), Bowden had a similar path of success (even slightly superior) to Groh, mixed with a reputation for arrogance and aloofness from the fanbase.

Crowe’s firing didn’t end up working out so well for Arkansas---they were stuck for awhile in the mud, but again, it’s not like anyone was lamenting the Jack Crowe era afterwards. Bowden’s firing so far has seemed to work out for Clemson---the Tigers found value in a lost season, removing the interim tag from Dabo Swinney’s job description last December after the Tigers turned things around.

More than anything, firing Groh now gives hope, perhaps fleeting, of better Saturdays to come, even this year. If nothing else, it gives certainty to a situation that has needed it for three years, and avoids the biggest problem of all: Groh winning more games.

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From the Captain Obvious Department

As noted in our opening post, one of the things we're looking for here at the 7even Win Society is intelligent discussion of UVA sports. Judging from the Fourth Estate's coverage of Saturday's debacle against William & Mary, we're still looking.  A sampling (and these are the highlights people): 

• Kris Wright over at the Sabre thinks Saturday's loss is the last straw.  We agree, but as ACC COY noted last week, did we really need to wait for this?
• Jeff White blamed turnovers (seven is too much, eh?), and then played cheerleader.  I hope Jeff's experiment writing for Virginiasports.com isn't always just a cheerleading gig.
• The DP said the spread laid an egg.  Hootie gets a gold star for writing something at least somewhat insightful. 
• Doug Doughty ponders whether this was UVA's worst loss ever.  I really like Doug as a writer, but it seems to me he's always trying remind people how long he's been around.
• And Heather Dinich over at ESPN's new ACC Blog thinks UVA is looking at a possible 0-4 start.  Sorry Heather, we can peruse the schedule too, and we're more worried about something like 2-10.
• The Washington Post is trying to create a "turning point" for its coverage of UVA athletics by starting a Cavaliers Journal Blog.  Well, its Tuesday, and all I've seen is that Zach Berman's 9/3 post that he's happy he won't be trekking up and down I-81 anymore.  Bang up coverage as usual WP!

I know its easy to Monday Morning Quarterback the media (although it shouldn't be this easy).  Its also too easy to simply write a "Fire Groh" Post.  I won't rant too much about a game many of us are trying to simply eject from our consciousness as quickly as possible.  And really, there's not much to analyze - a team that had a lot more talent was outplayed in pretty much every aspect of the game by a team from a lower division - so maybe I'm being too hard on the media.  But ...

• As the old football saying goes, if you have two quarterbacks, you really have none. If you have three quarterbacks, well, you have a coach with ADD.  Don't tell me it was Gregg Brandon's idea to rotate three different kids at QB in his first game as OC.  And if it was, someone (i.e. the head coach) should have stopped him from doing it. 
• Vic Hall’s opening drive 34-yard touchdown scamper was breathtaking, but he appears to be a one-trick pony. Or at the very least the coaches think he is. He threw all of five passes at QB. If you don’t trust him to throw, Hall is the NFL version of a Wildcat QB. A nice change of pace, but not a QB. Stop pretending he is.
• But Hall wasn’t doing that badly, which made the switch to Sewell after all of three drives such a head-scratcher. The football gods immediately punished UVA for the change with a fumbled snap on Sewell’s first play. After that, it was vintage Sewell – a strike between coverage to Chris Byrd. Two plays later, he sailed a throw three feet over Byrd’s head to the other team. Get used to it folks. Sewell is the Hoos best chance at QB. But he is what he is – flashes of brilliance followed closely by complete exasperation.
• We’ll just pretend the desperation switch to Marc Verica in the fourth quarter didn’t happen, shall we? And hope it doesn’t happen again. I’m sure he’s a nice guy, but Verica should have joined the ranks Virginia QBs that never got in a game. The fact that he plays (and has even started games) is horrifying for a program that hopes to compete for conference titles.
• Mikell Simpson carried the ball five times for 32 yards, and caught six passes for 28 yards. I know a lot of those running yards were on one play late in the first half, but Simpson’s probably their best offensive player. Let’s get him the ball, not throw to receivers you or I couldn't pick out of a lineup.
• Is it possible – just possible – that they’re asking Hall to do too much? Not only does Hall have to learn a new offense, learn a new position, and split out wide at receiver every once in a while, but he also needs to return punts? Why exactly? Its hard to get mad at the kid when he’s asked to do that much, and then fumbles a punt. But very easy to get mad at the coaching staff that asks him to do it.
• The defense wasn’t as bad as the score indicated. It wasn’t good, mind you, against a 1-AA opponent, but not that bad. Redshirt freshman Steve Greer (10 tackles) used to be Jon Copper’s understudy; looks more like a clone to me. And a year after returning from academic suspension, Chris Cook looks like the best corner on the roster (yes, I’m looking at you Ras-I Dowling).
• Finally, another old football saying (one I happen to believe in) is that players take on the personality of their head coach.  Saturday's performance did not reflect well on the head coach.  The program's history under Groh says they will rebound, of course, but we're not sure that matters.  We suspect there will be ruminations all week about Groh's job status on one side, and attempts to rally the troops on the other.  Far from the discussion we thought we'd be having this week, huh?  Doesn't that tell you everything you need to know?

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The Search for a New Coach Started Sunday

William & Mary 26, Virginia 14

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Kicking off another season of UVA Football

Normally in this space at this time, I'd be filling you in on the enemy for the week, but I don't think anyone really cares what UVA's academic little brother (or as cjhoo noted to me, the the future Fighting Asparagus) is going to bring to the table this week (no pun intended). 

But I did want to add a quick word about a guy who would have been looking forward to this game just as much as anyone, and that's the recently departed Mike Colley, former Assistant Director for Media Relations at the University and a lifelong Cavalier fan who died earlier this summer from a sudden heart attack.

I knew Mike back when I was just a young journalist, and he was always good to me even though he was often annoyed with me (I know because he'd tell me so).  I won't pretend Mike & I were fast friends, so I'll leave more appropriate tributes to those who knew him better than I -- here and here.  But for those of us who knew him, we know he'll be watching wherever he is (and happy he doesn't have to round up anyone for quotes afterwards).  Go Hoos!  Continue reading this post...

Fearless Predictions

Its the time of year when everyone goes through the schedule and tries to figure out just how well Virginia is going to do this season.  To me, this season seems harder than most, but as cjhoo notes, its felt this way to him for the last ten years. 

ESPN's got Virginia finishing behind Duke.  Ouch.  The Sporting News says 4-8.  The Washington Post (I didn't know they covered UVa sports) have them finishing with, at most, three ACC wins.

We're slightly more optimistic here at the Seven Win Society (some more than others).  Our season predictions are after the jump.  Please feel free to chime in with your thoughts as well.

red4z: Yet another make-or-break season for a major sport coach. Haven’t we seen this movie before? It feels a little bit like Tugg Speedman in Scorcher 6.

The Hoos open against FCS powerhouse William & Mary. It goes better than last year’s foray into the CAA. 27-7 Hoos. Vic Hall looks like the answer.

Week 2 against TCU is everyone’s favorite upset special. I don’t see it. Vic Hall remembers he’s 5-foot-9. Jameel Sewell comes in for the second half and makes it interesting, but the Cavs can’t keep up with the Horned Frogs. 27-24 TCU.

Going into week 3, a prominent media member compares Sewell, who is now the starter, to Aaron Brooks. Seven Win Society reminds said media member that, for all his faults, Aaron Brooks was much better than Jameel Sewell. Here’s your upset special. S. Miss. 21, UVA 17.

The Hoos lose the next one on the road too to UNC, and fall to 1-3. Everyone is screaming for Groh’s head. True to form, Groh says that he will not disclose who will start at QB in Week 5. This does keep the opponents guessing, but it also leaves his own team wondering who their leader is. Maybe the coach should think of that next time.

The Hoos win game 5 behind a QB tandem of Hall and Sewell. Its Indiana, and its not basketball. The same thing happens in Week 8 against Duke (again, not basketball). But those wins are sandwiched around a blowout loss to the Turtles, and vengeance for GT, who return the favor for last year’s home loss by beating the Hoos in C’ville for the first time since 1990 (we all remember that one, don’t we?).

But Groh always keeps it interesting. He does it again with an upset win at Miami. The Hoos follow it up by taking care of business at home against BC. Now, all of a sudden, they’re 5-5, and only need to split one of their last two to be eligible for a bowl (even if it’s DC‘s EagleBank Bowl against Navy).

They can’t do it. CJ Spiller runs wild in Death Valley, and the Hokies beat Groh for the eighth time in nine years. Its Groh’s last game on the UVA sideline.

Cjhoo: As we embark upon the 2009 version of the college football season, the obligatory fearless (more accurately baseless) predictions are in order. This year’s Virginia squad proves a tad reminiscent of the ‘07 Cavs – sure, no preseason standout like Chris Long, but a stronger quarterback situation and proven players in several key positions. Actually, perhaps the ’09 Hoos have very little in common with the squad from two seasons ago, but instead the idea is that they can put together a season similar to that of the 2007 campaign - surprise a few teams, catch a handful of good breaks, exceed expectations, and tally a respectable season. Alright, enough of what equates to “jazz hands” on paper (pure cheese) and on with the flip-of-the-coin predictions.

Early season: After what should be an easy, though mildly unimpressive win against the fighting asparagus (recently proposed mascot) of W&M, Virginia should look to at least split the TCU/Southern Miss games. Winning both leads to early expectations and sets up well for fans to have their hearts stomped on once again.

Almost every year, Virginia seems to pull off an upset of some sort, and the TCU game will be the one for 2009. It’s TCU’s first game, and could be a bit of trap game for the Horned Frogs. They enter the season with considerable expectations, and Virginia welcomes them to Charlottesville with a tune-up game under its belt and nothing to lose.

While beating the Golden Eagles in Hattiesburg is certainly possible; this could be the TCU game in reverse. There is no doubt Southern Miss will be excited to host an ACC school, and in typical Wahoo fashion, the excitement stemming from the TCU upset will quickly be tempered with a hard-fought loss on the road, leaving the Hoos 2-1 headed into ACC play.

Swing Games: While wins at UNC and Clemson look unlikely (though a split would be huge), Virginia has a chance to win any and all of four games @ Maryland, v. Ga. Tech, @ Miami, and v. Boston College. Going .500 against these four serves as a reasonable goal, and anything above that sets things up for a relatively exciting season.

When the Hoos head to College Park they should collect their first road win of the year at Maryland. The spread offense starts to really take shape and helps the Cavs notch a key conference win. Virginia will likely travel down to Florida as an underdog and they should come away with a mild upset and a solid conference road win against a young but talented Miami team.

Things might not fare as well at home. Looking to avenge a surprise loss to the Hoos last year in Atlanta, the Yellow Jackets, one of the contenders for the ACC crown, take care of business on the road.

And just as Virginia typically pulls off a nice upset game each season, the Hoos tend to also post a wildly disappointing loss (still trying to wash the taste of last year’s Duke-job out of my mouth). With a decent season in the works and a little confidence after the Miami win on the road, the Cavs come home and completely fall flat against Boston College. A crushing defeat against a team Virginia should beat.

Va Tech: The season unfolds like a script from a Lifetime Original Series, and thus, it all comes down to this game. The Groh rumors are swirling, and the Hoos could use one more marquee win to secure a bowl birth in a rivalry game that has been quite lopsided during Groh’s tenure. The Hoos finally end the streak, finish 7-5, head to a marginal bowl, and Groh gets an ambiguous vote of confidence – a year extension, which still leaves him with only 3 years left on his contract.

ACC COY: Let’s start with the season narrative; easy enough to pick, given I’m the optimistic sort:

Week One: Narrower-than-should-be win against the Tribe, everybody gets excited about whichever quarterback comes in second;

Week Two: New starting quarterback! Blowout loss to TCU, which is complicated by one of the other two quarterbacks playing better than the original No. 2 in garbage time, Groh won’t say who starts, just that he has a good idea who it’ll be;

Week Three: New starting quarterback! Three-point loss at Southern Miss, and renewed talk of Groh resigning. Groh will instead talk about building a team that’s hard to beat;

Sidebar: WHY is VIRGINIA playing AT SOUTHERN MISS exactly? Talk about no upside. If UVA is going to play nonconference games against teams with some pedigree, I can buy it; I can get into Texas Christian, even if they’ll probably kick our ass. I can’t get into Wyoming. Or ECU. Or Southern Miss. Or any of these teams that do nothing for us when we win that beating, say, Troy or Buffalo wouldn’t do (presuming Virginia COULD beat Troy or Buffalo). Indiana is at least a Big 10 team. I mean, seriously. This is the height of poor planning, and I don’t care what the excuses are. There are, what, almost 100 Division I-A schools that are not members of the ACC? Virginia couldn’t find ANY that were either easy enough to beat or name enough to get on national TV? Playing AT Southern Miss. Ugh.

Week Four: Bye Week. Groh says it was a good time for everybody to come together, makes some reference to a bye week that went well in the League;

Week Five: New starting quarterback! (Well, really, just whoever started the opener or second game). Upset of North Carolina, because even if it is in Chapel Hill, Virginia owns UNC when it’s not supposed to;

Weeks Six/Seven/Eight: Wins over Indiana and Maryland (of course come-from-behind) have Virginia somehow in first place in the division midway through the year. Beating Georgia Tech (who, again, we own when we’re not supposed to) has people talking extension for Groh;

Week Nine: Groh for ACC Coach of the Year! Barely squeaking by Duke reminds people how this season is going to end. People are talking Gator or Peach Bowl at 6-2, but it’s really time to start looking at hotels up the road in Charlotte;

Weeks 10-12: Virginia loses at Miami, bad; beats Boston College, people again start talking about how if nine different unlikely combinations of things happen that Virginia Could Still Win The Division, then an ugly loss at Clemson shuts that up, and people start thinking DC, not Charlotte;

Week 13: Hokies deliver their Thanksgiving beatdown, take over Scott Stadium, and remind us what a football program looks like;

Week 14: UVa creeps into the EagleBank Bowl, fans talk themselves into a Tuesday afternoon game in DC, Littlepage lets the story dangle for a week or two but decides to keep Groh but doesn’t bother to sign on the option, and the cycle begins anew.

Week 20 (my math might be off): A 14-10 win over Army in DC gives Groh an “eight-win” season to crow about.

The sad thing is, I think most people would look at this as a dream season. I know because I am one of those people.


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Getting off the Ground...

Hope everyone has enjoyed the first week-plus of the Seven Win Society.  A number of you have asked how you can help, get involved, etc.  The best thing you can do for the site right now is spread the word, and comment when you agree (or don't agree) with something we've written.  We like discussion.  For example, we'd be interested to hear what everyone else thinks about Groh's status (yesterday's post), and how everyone else thinks the football team will do this season (tomorrow's post).   

If you keep reading, we'll keep writing.  We wouldn't have done this if there wasn't a niche for this type of blog for UVA Sports, and if we weren't committed to making it work.  If you have any suggestions, thoughts, or just think of something you want written about, post a comment somewhere, or send us an e-mail at sevenwinsociety@gmail.com.

Thanks,

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