As we've already noted, the national media isn't too peachy on Virginia hoops this season. As part of the annual ACC media poll, Virginia was picked 11th. Collegehoops.net has an interesting high-low projection, picking Virginia to finish anywhere from 7th to 12, but ultimately peg the Cavs at 10th. Baseball Prospectus' little brother is a little more optimistic, predicting Virginia to finish 8-8 in the ACC, as noted over at the Sabre. I share BP's optimism. My colleagues, not so much, although they certainly have more than the national media. Our predictions are after the jump. Feel free to chime in with your own in the comments section. The schedule can be found here.
red4z: As I’m already on the record as saying, 2009-10 will be a turnaround team for Virginia basketball. For all the flack Dave Leitao took for his lack of recruiting acumen, he doesn’t leave the cupboard bare for the incoming Tony Bennett. And unlike football, the administration didn't wait one year too long to pull the plug on a coach that needed to go.
There are few things I expect immediately with Coach Bennett taking the reins. First, no more embarrassing losses. He’s too good a coach, and his teams are characteristically too disciplined for a slip up. So no more losses to Liberty. Second, an established player rotation. As a former NBA player, Bennett understands the importance of everyone knowing their roles. A few players will invariably be left without minutes in the process, but that’s better than players looking over to the bench for the hook every time they make a mistake. Finally, Bennett is a player’s coach. Expect a few guys who wilted under Leitao’s in your face style to flourish under a new voice. Jeff Jones, I’m looking in your direction.
The Hoos will surprise throughout their pre-conference schedule. They’ll drop a game to a loaded Kentucky squad (say hello to John Wall) in Cancun, but will steal a road win at South Florida or Auburn. And the Hoos will take care of business against Penn St. in the ACC Invitational (better known as the ACC/Big Ten Challenge). The Hoos will enter conference play unranked, but 11-2 and people will be wondering just how good they are.
Virginia is well-positioned to start strong in ACC play, and in general. The Cavs open at NC State, home to GT and Miami, at WF, and at home to Va. Tech. They also get UNC and Duke only once each. Its too early to expect wins against those traditional powers, but the Hoos will break through against the ACC’s second tier. My heart says 9-7; my head says 8-8. Either way, without a true marquee win, Virginia is left out of the dance. Disappointing at the time, but in the big picture, a successful first season for Bennett. Prediction: 19-10, 8-8. NIT berth.
cjhoo99: The energy of a new head man, the opportunities that accompany change, and the benefits of new schemes often produce some sort of positive results in year one. Certainly the idea is for the momentum of the first year to carry forward to years two, three, and four, yet, for whatever reason, that part of the puzzle seems to have eluded Virginia’s last two previous basketball coaches. Without a doubt, Hoo fans would like new headman Tony Bennett to find a way to break the recent trend plaguing UVa’s basketball program while still maintaining a little of that “beginner’s luck.” On paper at least it appears modest improvement over the complete debacle that was last season proves well within reason.
Virginia’s non-conference schedule proves very reasonable. If Bennett’s defensive system takes hold early, that should help keep some member of the opposing team from setting a new career-best in scoring against the Cavs (something that happened far too often under both Gillen and Leitao). By simply minimizing the bad losses that have been commonplace in recent years, the Hoos should finish the non-conference portion of the schedule at no worse than 8-5. If everything falls into place early on, it’s not completely inconceivable that Virginia travels to Raleigh sitting at 11-2, and should be 10-3 starting conference play.
Virginia plays a home and home series with N.C. State, Maryland, Va Tech, and Miami, and winning six of those eight games is not out of the question – that means the Hoos sweep either the Wolfpack or Miami while splitting with Maryland and Va. Tech. Certainly possible. An upset over Ga. Tech at home (second ACC game) or Wake Forest could be in the cards, and a road win over either Clemson or Boston College can’t be ruled out. Heck, even a shocker over Duke is not impossible – the Blue Devils tend to bring out the best in Virginia, especially in C’ville. Going .500 in the ACC would be a minor miracle while anything below 5-11 would prove disappointing.
A trip to the Big Dance seems a bit unlikely, though an NIT birth represents a reasonable goal. Getting back to post-season play (the CBI or any other b-grade tourney excluded) would certainly be a nice start to the Bennett era. Prediction: 17-12, 7-9, NIT berth.
ACC COY: Virginia has a new coach with a better system but still does not have very many good players. It's reasonable enough that if the players buy into Bennett's system and work hard, they can surprise a few teams, particularly at home, on the first leg of the home-and-homes. I doubt, however, that they would be able to beat many decent teams on the road, particularly when the opponent has already seen them once or has sufficient tape. Since the ACC is filled with decent to good teams, this is probably going to be a long season for the Wahoos.
I'd guess 6-10 in the ACC, with one or two big upsets and a growing reputation as a tough out, particularly in JPJ. Maybe one win in the ACC tournament, and all that is possibly enough to get into the NIT, which I think should be considered a major accomplishment considering how bare the cupboard is.
This isn't like Pete Gillen inheriting three bona fide ACC players in Adam Hall, Chris Williams and Donald Hand,* or Leitao getting JR and Sean Singletary. Virginia has exactly one legitimate top-shelf ACC player in Sylven, and maybe another two or three other guys that would be rotation regulars in a good ACC lineup. If this team even gets a sniff at .500 in the conference, Tony Bennett should hit Littlepage up for a 10-year extension with an extensive buyout. Prediction: 16-13, 6-10, NIT Berth.
*---I doubt anyone expected those three to be as good as they were, but doesn't it strike you in retrospect how for two years Virginia had a starting lineup of Williams, Hall, Hand, Watson and Mason (not to mention brief flashes of Mapp and some other guys), all of whom had legitimate professional careers in the minors, overseas or in the NBA, and never won a tournament game? Astounding. What would you give for that rotation right now? If Majestic Mapp does not hurt his knee, you have to figure they make it to the Sweet 16 at least once, right? Wow.
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Its the time of year when everyone goes through the schedule and tries to figure out just how well Virginia is going to do this season. To me, this season seems harder than most, but as cjhoo notes, its felt this way to him for the last ten years.
ESPN's got Virginia finishing behind Duke. Ouch. The Sporting News says 4-8. The Washington Post (I didn't know they covered UVa sports) have them finishing with, at most, three ACC wins.
We're slightly more optimistic here at the Seven Win Society (some more than others). Our season predictions are after the jump. Please feel free to chime in with your thoughts as well.
red4z: Yet another make-or-break season for a major sport coach. Haven’t we seen this movie before? It feels a little bit like Tugg Speedman in Scorcher 6.
The Hoos open against FCS powerhouse William & Mary. It goes better than last year’s foray into the CAA. 27-7 Hoos. Vic Hall looks like the answer.
Week 2 against TCU is everyone’s favorite upset special. I don’t see it. Vic Hall remembers he’s 5-foot-9. Jameel Sewell comes in for the second half and makes it interesting, but the Cavs can’t keep up with the Horned Frogs. 27-24 TCU.
Going into week 3, a prominent media member compares Sewell, who is now the starter, to Aaron Brooks. Seven Win Society reminds said media member that, for all his faults, Aaron Brooks was much better than Jameel Sewell. Here’s your upset special. S. Miss. 21, UVA 17.
The Hoos lose the next one on the road too to UNC, and fall to 1-3. Everyone is screaming for Groh’s head. True to form, Groh says that he will not disclose who will start at QB in Week 5. This does keep the opponents guessing, but it also leaves his own team wondering who their leader is. Maybe the coach should think of that next time.
The Hoos win game 5 behind a QB tandem of Hall and Sewell. Its Indiana, and its not basketball. The same thing happens in Week 8 against Duke (again, not basketball). But those wins are sandwiched around a blowout loss to the Turtles, and vengeance for GT, who return the favor for last year’s home loss by beating the Hoos in C’ville for the first time since 1990 (we all remember that one, don’t we?).
But Groh always keeps it interesting. He does it again with an upset win at Miami. The Hoos follow it up by taking care of business at home against BC. Now, all of a sudden, they’re 5-5, and only need to split one of their last two to be eligible for a bowl (even if it’s DC‘s EagleBank Bowl against Navy).
They can’t do it. CJ Spiller runs wild in Death Valley, and the Hokies beat Groh for the eighth time in nine years. Its Groh’s last game on the UVA sideline.
Cjhoo: As we embark upon the 2009 version of the college football season, the obligatory fearless (more accurately baseless) predictions are in order. This year’s Virginia squad proves a tad reminiscent of the ‘07 Cavs – sure, no preseason standout like Chris Long, but a stronger quarterback situation and proven players in several key positions. Actually, perhaps the ’09 Hoos have very little in common with the squad from two seasons ago, but instead the idea is that they can put together a season similar to that of the 2007 campaign - surprise a few teams, catch a handful of good breaks, exceed expectations, and tally a respectable season. Alright, enough of what equates to “jazz hands” on paper (pure cheese) and on with the flip-of-the-coin predictions.
Early season: After what should be an easy, though mildly unimpressive win against the fighting asparagus (recently proposed mascot) of W&M, Virginia should look to at least split the TCU/Southern Miss games. Winning both leads to early expectations and sets up well for fans to have their hearts stomped on once again.
Almost every year, Virginia seems to pull off an upset of some sort, and the TCU game will be the one for 2009. It’s TCU’s first game, and could be a bit of trap game for the Horned Frogs. They enter the season with considerable expectations, and Virginia welcomes them to Charlottesville with a tune-up game under its belt and nothing to lose.
While beating the Golden Eagles in Hattiesburg is certainly possible; this could be the TCU game in reverse. There is no doubt Southern Miss will be excited to host an ACC school, and in typical Wahoo fashion, the excitement stemming from the TCU upset will quickly be tempered with a hard-fought loss on the road, leaving the Hoos 2-1 headed into ACC play.
Swing Games: While wins at UNC and Clemson look unlikely (though a split would be huge), Virginia has a chance to win any and all of four games @ Maryland, v. Ga. Tech, @ Miami, and v. Boston College. Going .500 against these four serves as a reasonable goal, and anything above that sets things up for a relatively exciting season.
When the Hoos head to College Park they should collect their first road win of the year at Maryland. The spread offense starts to really take shape and helps the Cavs notch a key conference win. Virginia will likely travel down to Florida as an underdog and they should come away with a mild upset and a solid conference road win against a young but talented Miami team.
Things might not fare as well at home. Looking to avenge a surprise loss to the Hoos last year in Atlanta, the Yellow Jackets, one of the contenders for the ACC crown, take care of business on the road.
And just as Virginia typically pulls off a nice upset game each season, the Hoos tend to also post a wildly disappointing loss (still trying to wash the taste of last year’s Duke-job out of my mouth). With a decent season in the works and a little confidence after the Miami win on the road, the Cavs come home and completely fall flat against Boston College. A crushing defeat against a team Virginia should beat.
Va Tech: The season unfolds like a script from a Lifetime Original Series, and thus, it all comes down to this game. The Groh rumors are swirling, and the Hoos could use one more marquee win to secure a bowl birth in a rivalry game that has been quite lopsided during Groh’s tenure. The Hoos finally end the streak, finish 7-5, head to a marginal bowl, and Groh gets an ambiguous vote of confidence – a year extension, which still leaves him with only 3 years left on his contract.
ACC COY: Let’s start with the season narrative; easy enough to pick, given I’m the optimistic sort:
Week One: Narrower-than-should-be win against the Tribe, everybody gets excited about whichever quarterback comes in second;
Week Two: New starting quarterback! Blowout loss to TCU, which is complicated by one of the other two quarterbacks playing better than the original No. 2 in garbage time, Groh won’t say who starts, just that he has a good idea who it’ll be;
Week Three: New starting quarterback! Three-point loss at Southern Miss, and renewed talk of Groh resigning. Groh will instead talk about building a team that’s hard to beat;
Sidebar: WHY is VIRGINIA playing AT SOUTHERN MISS exactly? Talk about no upside. If UVA is going to play nonconference games against teams with some pedigree, I can buy it; I can get into Texas Christian, even if they’ll probably kick our ass. I can’t get into Wyoming. Or ECU. Or Southern Miss. Or any of these teams that do nothing for us when we win that beating, say, Troy or Buffalo wouldn’t do (presuming Virginia COULD beat Troy or Buffalo). Indiana is at least a Big 10 team. I mean, seriously. This is the height of poor planning, and I don’t care what the excuses are. There are, what, almost 100 Division I-A schools that are not members of the ACC? Virginia couldn’t find ANY that were either easy enough to beat or name enough to get on national TV? Playing AT Southern Miss. Ugh.
Week Four: Bye Week. Groh says it was a good time for everybody to come together, makes some reference to a bye week that went well in the League;
Week Five: New starting quarterback! (Well, really, just whoever started the opener or second game). Upset of North Carolina, because even if it is in Chapel Hill, Virginia owns UNC when it’s not supposed to;
Weeks Six/Seven/Eight: Wins over Indiana and Maryland (of course come-from-behind) have Virginia somehow in first place in the division midway through the year. Beating Georgia Tech (who, again, we own when we’re not supposed to) has people talking extension for Groh;
Week Nine: Groh for ACC Coach of the Year! Barely squeaking by Duke reminds people how this season is going to end. People are talking Gator or Peach Bowl at 6-2, but it’s really time to start looking at hotels up the road in Charlotte;
Weeks 10-12: Virginia loses at Miami, bad; beats Boston College, people again start talking about how if nine different unlikely combinations of things happen that Virginia Could Still Win The Division, then an ugly loss at Clemson shuts that up, and people start thinking DC, not Charlotte;
Week 13: Hokies deliver their Thanksgiving beatdown, take over Scott Stadium, and remind us what a football program looks like;
Week 14: UVa creeps into the EagleBank Bowl, fans talk themselves into a Tuesday afternoon game in DC, Littlepage lets the story dangle for a week or two but decides to keep Groh but doesn’t bother to sign on the option, and the cycle begins anew.
Week 20 (my math might be off): A 14-10 win over Army in DC gives Groh an “eight-win” season to crow about.
The sad thing is, I think most people would look at this as a dream season. I know because I am one of those people.
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