Fearless Predictions - Hoops Edition

As we've already noted, the national media isn't too peachy on Virginia hoops this season.  As part of the annual ACC media poll, Virginia was picked 11th.  Collegehoops.net has an interesting high-low projection, picking Virginia to finish anywhere from 7th to 12, but ultimately peg the Cavs at 10th.  Baseball Prospectus' little brother is a little more optimistic, predicting Virginia to finish 8-8 in the ACC, as noted over at the Sabre.  I share BP's optimism.  My colleagues, not so much, although they certainly have more than the national media.  Our predictions are after the jump.  Feel free to chime in with your own in the comments section.  The schedule can be found here.


red4z: As I’m already on the record as saying, 2009-10 will be a turnaround team for Virginia basketball. For all the flack Dave Leitao took for his lack of recruiting acumen, he doesn’t leave the cupboard bare for the incoming Tony Bennett. And unlike football, the administration didn't wait one year too long to pull the plug on a coach that needed to go.

There are few things I expect immediately with Coach Bennett taking the reins. First, no more embarrassing losses. He’s too good a coach, and his teams are characteristically too disciplined for a slip up. So no more losses to Liberty. Second, an established player rotation. As a former NBA player, Bennett understands the importance of everyone knowing their roles. A few players will invariably be left without minutes in the process, but that’s better than players looking over to the bench for the hook every time they make a mistake. Finally, Bennett is a player’s coach. Expect a few guys who wilted under Leitao’s in your face style to flourish under a new voice. Jeff Jones, I’m looking in your direction.

The Hoos will surprise throughout their pre-conference schedule. They’ll drop a game to a loaded Kentucky squad (say hello to John Wall) in Cancun, but will steal a road win at South Florida or Auburn. And the Hoos will take care of business against Penn St. in the ACC Invitational (better known as the ACC/Big Ten Challenge). The Hoos will enter conference play unranked, but 11-2 and people will be wondering just how good they are.

Virginia is well-positioned to start strong in ACC play, and in general. The Cavs open at NC State, home to GT and Miami, at WF, and at home to Va. Tech. They also get UNC and Duke only once each. Its too early to expect wins against those traditional powers, but the Hoos will break through against the ACC’s second tier. My heart says 9-7; my head says 8-8. Either way, without a true marquee win, Virginia is left out of the dance. Disappointing at the time, but in the big picture, a successful first season for Bennett.  Prediction: 19-10, 8-8. NIT berth.

cjhoo99: The energy of a new head man, the opportunities that accompany change, and the benefits of new schemes often produce some sort of positive results in year one. Certainly the idea is for the momentum of the first year to carry forward to years two, three, and four, yet, for whatever reason, that part of the puzzle seems to have eluded Virginia’s last two previous basketball coaches. Without a doubt, Hoo fans would like new headman Tony Bennett to find a way to break the recent trend plaguing UVa’s basketball program while still maintaining a little of that “beginner’s luck.” On paper at least it appears modest improvement over the complete debacle that was last season proves well within reason.

Virginia’s non-conference schedule proves very reasonable. If Bennett’s defensive system takes hold early, that should help keep some member of the opposing team from setting a new career-best in scoring against the Cavs (something that happened far too often under both Gillen and Leitao). By simply minimizing the bad losses that have been commonplace in recent years, the Hoos should finish the non-conference portion of the schedule at no worse than 8-5. If everything falls into place early on, it’s not completely inconceivable that Virginia travels to Raleigh sitting at 11-2, and should be 10-3 starting conference play.

Virginia plays a home and home series with N.C. State, Maryland, Va Tech, and Miami, and winning six of those eight games is not out of the question – that means the Hoos sweep either the Wolfpack or Miami while splitting with Maryland and Va. Tech. Certainly possible. An upset over Ga. Tech at home (second ACC game) or Wake Forest could be in the cards, and a road win over either Clemson or Boston College can’t be ruled out. Heck, even a shocker over Duke is not impossible – the Blue Devils tend to bring out the best in Virginia, especially in C’ville. Going .500 in the ACC would be a minor miracle while anything below 5-11 would prove disappointing.

A trip to the Big Dance seems a bit unlikely, though an NIT birth represents a reasonable goal. Getting back to post-season play (the CBI or any other b-grade tourney excluded) would certainly be a nice start to the Bennett era. Prediction: 17-12, 7-9, NIT berth.

ACC COY: Virginia has a new coach with a better system but still does not have very many good players. It's reasonable enough that if the players buy into Bennett's system and work hard, they can surprise a few teams, particularly at home, on the first leg of the home-and-homes. I doubt, however, that they would be able to beat many decent teams on the road, particularly when the opponent has already seen them once or has sufficient tape. Since the ACC is filled with decent to good teams, this is probably going to be a long season for the Wahoos.

I'd guess 6-10 in the ACC, with one or two big upsets and a growing reputation as a tough out, particularly in JPJ. Maybe one win in the ACC tournament, and all that is possibly enough to get into the NIT, which I think should be considered a major accomplishment considering how bare the cupboard is.

This isn't like Pete Gillen inheriting three bona fide ACC players in Adam Hall, Chris Williams and Donald Hand,* or Leitao getting JR and Sean Singletary. Virginia has exactly one legitimate top-shelf ACC player in Sylven, and maybe another two or three other guys that would be rotation regulars in a good ACC lineup. If this team even gets a sniff at .500 in the conference, Tony Bennett should hit Littlepage up for a 10-year extension with an extensive buyout. Prediction: 16-13, 6-10, NIT Berth.

*---I doubt anyone expected those three to be as good as they were, but doesn't it strike you in retrospect how for two years Virginia had a starting lineup of Williams, Hall, Hand, Watson and Mason (not to mention brief flashes of Mapp and some other guys), all of whom had legitimate professional careers in the minors, overseas or in the NBA, and never won a tournament game? Astounding. What would you give for that rotation right now? If Majestic Mapp does not hurt his knee, you have to figure they make it to the Sweet 16 at least once, right? Wow.