ESPN on the ACC: Judging on Reputation, Not Reality

With college basketball kicking off Monday night, college hoops previews are everywhere.  As part of its coverage, ESPN the Magazine ranked the top 64 teams (ignore the fact that the top 64 don't make the dance, but rather 31 auto bids plus 34 at-large teams do, and oh yeah, its 65 teams because God forbid a 9-9 Big Ten team lose a spot for an automatic qualifier).   

Its one of those years where no one can tell who's any good, so "experts" are largely sticking with the big names.  Case in point, North Carolina, who lost their top four scorers from a year ago, are ranked sixth in the AP poll based on the return of Ed Davis and an uber-talented freshman class.  The Heels will be good, especially towards the end of the season, but there's no way they're the sixth best team in the country right now.

But you can excuse a little North Carolina bias (Duke bias is another matter).  They're always good, always have at least one lottery pick on the roster, and are well coached by Roy Williams.  I also won't quibble with ESPN putting Duke at 12, since the Dukies always maximize talent (during the regular season at least), or Georgia Tech at 25, since Derrick Favors may be the best player in the country right out of high school (the last time Paul Hewitt brought Favors' kind of talent to Atlanta was 2006-07, when one-and-doners Thaddeus Young and Javaris Crittenden led the Jackets to a 20-12 record and an NCAA berth). And I won't even kill them too bad for putting Maryland at 19, although most people will tell you that merry band of turtles played over its head last season and its unlikely they'll be able to do it again.  Same with Wake Forest at 33, but the Deacs will severely miss their two best players - Teague and Johnson - regardless of how high Al-Farouq Aminu can jump. 

But once you get past them, I was shocked by the utter lack of homework ESPN did as part of its ESPN the Magazine College Hoops preview.  They're not the only ones, but as the 700-pound gorilla in the sports world, they're an easy target.

First, the ACC was propped up last season by a couple of singularly great players on otherwise bad teams: Tyrese Rice at BC, Toney Douglas at Florida State, and Jack McClinton at Miami.  All are gone; all three should expect to take a step back.  Yet ESPN has BC at 28, essentially 5th in the ACC, based on the return of Reggie Jackson and all of his 7 ppg?  Florida State is at 35 based on Darwin Kitchen?  And Miami is at 56, based apparently on a couple of guys averaging just around 10 ppg?  Sorry, folks, don't see it with any of them.  Maybe BC is a bubble team based on Al Skinner and what's left of Rice's tough supporting cast, but make no mistake, they are nothing more than that - a supporting cast.  BC's barely an NIT team last season without Rice.  And don't expect FSU and Miami to be even bubble good without their do-everything leaders.  Solomon Alabi's a nice NBA big-man prospect, but he can't score, something the 'Noles had enough trouble doing even with Douglas.  And you want to know what life will be like for the Canes without Shooter Jack?  Harken back to their ACC-Big Ten Challenge game last season against Ohio State.  They led by 14 at the half with McClinton.  Playing without him in the second half after he was ejected, they were outscored by 19.  Get used to the latter.

ESPN also apparently thought another pair of senior-led teams - Virginia Tech at 42 and Clemson at 47 - were getting their leaders back.  But no, AD Vasallo is not coming back for what seems like his seventh year of eligibility.  I can't see the Hokies building an NCAA resume, which they didn't have last season even with Vasallo, on the backs of Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen.  And Clemson lost not only KC Rivers to graduation, but also 3-point bomber and Reggie Cleveland candidate Terrence Oglesby to Italian pro ball.  That's 27.4 ppg out the door.  Trevor Booker is a man among boys, but I'm not sure who's getting him the ball, or loosening up defenses for him, anymore.  

The point of all this, other than the national media is sometimes lazy and stupid?  A middle of the pack spot in the ACC -- and the bubble talk that goes with that spot -- is ripe for the taking.  Wake, BC, FSU, Miami, Va. Tech, and Clemson are all less than they were a year ago.  Maryland's no better.  So there's no reason Virginia, with five returning starters and the ACC ROY in its stable, can't fill that void.  Its something I hope Tony Bennett's thinking, even if he's not saying it.  The national media certainly isn't.