Lower the Curtain

Somewhere the fat lady is singing, because Saturday's loss should put a fork in the 2009 Cavaliers. When is the last time the Cavs lost to the Dookies on the gridiron twice in a row? (1981-1982 to be exact). Is this a sign that the worst of the ACC is getting better (a good sign for the conference) or is Virginia just that bad? Likely a combination of the two, though it appears Virginia's regression is mostly to blame as the Duke game was one the Hoos should have and could have won. There really isn't a whole lot to say about this one - just another prime example of how bad things have gotten in C'ville, another depressing defeat, and another dejecting blow that wiped out what little hope remained for 2009.

It's not as if they did not have their chances against Duke - the Hoos just couldn't get it done on offense. Sure, the defense gave up a huge TD late in the game to give Duke the lead for good, but by and large, this one is on the offense. A mere 196 yards of total offense (one measly yard in the entire first quarter no less) is just not enough to beat many teams.

Virginia's run game once again proved non-existent. For the third game in a row the Hoos failed to net 100 yards on the ground, and the team accounted for only 89 yards against the Blue Devils (86 of which came from Rashawn Jackson who was one of the only bright spots on offense). Mikell Simpson looked as if he was returning to his 2007 form until the injury in the Indiana game and since his return, he has yet to get back on track. Simpson only got 5 touches on Saturday and he and Jackson combined for only 21 carries. Virginia's quarterback play is far to erratic to hold up without the support of a rushing attack, and when neither is clicking, it becomes painful to watch.

Speaking of quarterbacks, Sewell was an eye-popping (amazingly futile) 8-22 for 86 yards...when your starting quarterback puts up those kinds of numbers, it probably doesn't come as a surprise that Virginia ranks 115th in the nation (out of 120 FBS teams) in total offense - and that was before the Duke game. It's hard to remember when the Hoos were actually good offensively as UVa being one of the worst offensive teams in college football has been an on-going theme (actually, more like a reoccurring nightmare). Sewell also tossed a pick and sealed Virginia's fate when his late 4th quarter fumble was recovered for a Duke touchdown. If Verica is the future, then Cav fans don't appear to have a ton to be excited about as he went 5-16 for 21 yards. They say it's just as hard to miss every question on the SAT as it is to get everyone correct (could be an urban legend) - I wonder if the same theory applies to football quarterbacks. It's got to be hard to put up numbers that lousy.

Saturday's crowd once again set a new, post-expansion record low as only 41,713 turned out to witness anything but a treat on Halloween. It's no wonder the Hoos fans have stayed away this season - Saturday's display of futility clearly showed the product on the field just isn't that good. The loss to Duke almost certainly puts the final nail in Groh's coffin, and for the remainder of the season, the most entertaining aspects of Virginia football will likely be the coaching rumors and what-if games. Continue reading this post...

Who is This 4-3 Football Team, and What Have They Done With Duke?

Who thought we'd see the day when it would be late October and Virginia would have a worse record than Duke?  Anyone?  Didn't think so.  By this time of year, Duke fans are usually following reports out of early season basketball practice.  OK, they probably still are, but Duke football is no longer a free win on the schedule, as evidenced by the 31-3 thrashing Virginia suffered last year in Durham.

The reason is simple, and it starts at the top (hint, hint Craig Littlepage).  Head Coach David Cutcliffe, who mentored Peyton Manning as OC at Tennessee and brother Eli as HC at Ole Miss, has brought much-needed credibility to the program.  Sure, there have been bumps in the road, like a season-opening loss to Mike London's 1-AA Richmond squad (second hint, hint).  Its still Duke, after all.  But there have been signs of progress as well.  The Blue Devils played Va. Tech closer than expected in a 34-26 loss, and followed that up with two wins at N.C. State and v. Maryland.  Its not the Steve Spurrier-era redux just yet, but its respectable.

That's mostly because of the offensive acumen Cutcliffe brought with him.  Duke averages just under 30 points a game, with most of the offense coming through the air (322.6 ypg passing v. only 74.4 ypg rushing).  QB Thaddeus Lewis, a four-year starter that has only gotten better under Cutcliffe, is the straw that stirs the drink for virtually everything Duke does on offense.  Lewis has a cannon for an arm, and has gradually increased his completion percentage and cut down on mistakes as his career has progressed.  The result this season is a signal-caller completing 64% of his throws with 14 TDs against only 3 ints.

Fortunately for the Hoos, Duke's strength plays right into theirs.  Virginia has struggled this season with run-dominant attacks (203 and 214 yards rushing allowed to TCU and S. Miss. respectively before surrendering last week's jaw-dropping 362 to Ga. Tech).  But they've held in check pass-first offenses Indiana and Maryland behind a stalwart secondary.  Expect the same Saturday against the Dukies.

It will also help Virginia that while Cutcliffe has improved the offense, its still the same old Duke defense.  The Devils surrender 25 points and 139 yards rushing per contest.  Expect a heavy dose of Mikell Simpson.        

(Ed. note - Simpson should be fresh after only six carries against Ga. Tech.  I know the run game was stifled early, but after playing to the team's strength -- defense -- by playing it close to the vest offensively during a three-game winning streak, Groh didn't do a whole lot to protect his charges against the Jackets.  With no offensive drives that lasted longer than 2:30 in the first half, Virginia was set up to surrender a back-breaking 10+ minute drive to start the second half.  Maybe the run was never going to work, but left with no time to recover because Virginia barely tried to run the ball to at least eat up some clock, the defense was bound to wear down eventually, and it did). 

Its a game Virginia should win, and if Groh holds out any hope (if there's any left) of keeping his job, a game he almost has to win.  It'd also help Groh's cause if more than 40,000 Virginia fans show up to watch.  I'm relatively confident about the win, less so about the attendance.  That might be a more damning commentary on the state of the program than any doubt surrounding the outcome of the Duke game. Continue reading this post...

I guess what did you expect?

At some point, the offense was going to have to do something if Virginia was going to beat anybody above the middle of the ACC table. Saturday was not that day. While it’s possible that Virginia’s invulnerability against Georgia Tech in Charlottesville could’ve been maintained if a few breaks (particularly, two possessions that ended inside the Georgia Tech 10) went their way instead of a trio of field goals, it’s a little hard to argue that the better team did not win.

Is this the real identity of the 2009 Virginia Cavaliers? Among the best of the mediocre? Seems that way, as the gap between Virginia and Georgia Tech wasn’t exactly as big as the scoreboard indicated, though the difference was clear.

In the grand scheme of things, this was far from unexpected, as Virginia’s hold on first place was tenuous at best. Given the remaining schedule has exactly one game in which the Cavaliers are surefire favorites, Duke, and even Duke isn’t quite Duke anymore, I’d put the over-under on remaining victories at 2, maybe 2.5, meaning it’s going to be a race to the finish to see if Al Groh can get to 6-6 and perhaps keep his job.

Some observations:
• While Georgia Tech’s running game was every bit as awesome as advertised (71 rushes!) it’s hard to discern how much of its success was due to the cumulative effect of having the ball roughly 75% of the time. By that, I mean, was it that the Cavaliers coaches were unable to scheme or the players lacked the talent to stop a good option attack, or was it just a death-by-a-thousand-paper-cuts situation? Some combination of both, obviously, but still, the inability for the offense to string together first downs was damning.
• Sewell did was Sewell, to me at least, offering a good sign for the future. He continues to be proficient enough to hold serve, but if he has a good game, Virginia is going to do well enough down the stretch to make Groh’s future interesting.
• Seriously, one drive of more than seven plays, one drive that lasts more than 150 seconds? How is this possible? I know there is not exactly a ton of talent there, and they’re not exactly bursting with gamebreakers, but at some point it’s not the players’ fault. I don’t think anyone is expecting anything more from Sewell or Simpson, who both may be hurt, but Simpson (6 rushes for 4 yards) can’t be effective, I don’t know, but there needs to be some issue with the playcalling at this point. Whatever issues the talent base might have, it is good enough to do more than have 44 offensive plays in a game, especially one with just one fumble. Georgia Tech’s defense had not established itself as anything particularly special before the game, particularly against the run, and for them to be that dominant at the line of scrimmage indicates to me that there’s some critical failure on someone’s part.
• Seriously, Virginia was terrible on third downs. Two-for-11. Ugh. Failure to convert three possessions that began at roughly midfield or better into touchdowns is in large part due to their inability to extend drives. Let’s look at the three third downs on the Cavaliers’ three possessions that began at their 47-yard-line or better. The first, a 3rd-and-18 due to a holding penalty, it’s easy enough to excuse, though a holding penalty at that point is silly enough. But to fail three times practically at the Tech goal line, then to fail at both 2nd-and-5 and 3rd-and-5 at the Tech 18, and settle for six points total of the aforementioned possessions, oh man, not so much. Of those five plays, three incomplete passes and two rushes for no gain is horrific.
• Okay, everyone has known all season and for however long Paul Johnson has been coaching that the option attack is pretty incredible in its execution. And while I don’t expect the defensive coaching staff to cook up some elaborate counterscheme a la Craig T. Nelson’s decision to go goal line for the entire Walnut Heights game in All the Right Moves, I don’t think that for a defense that had been pretty good at stopping third downs all year (best in the ACC), and somewhere between shaky and mediocre at stopping the run for the most part could’ve done a little better tactically. Then again, when you’re on the field for 45 minutes, it’s hard to assert yourself. Tech threw 8 passes, which is in line with their average for the season, so I guess it comes down to execution, which Tech was pretty awesome at. I mean, 18 plays, 82 yards, almost 11 minutes of clock time on that third quarter touchdown. Four third downs, three converted, one fourth down, converted, only one pass in all five of those critical plays. What a monster drive.
• Vic Hall will go down as arguably the most misused athlete in Virginia history. Obviously a tremendous weapon, obviously nobody knows exactly what to do with him. Continue reading this post...

Oktoberfest Buzz

What in the world has happened? Only a month ago, this thing was all sorted out – a horrific 0-3 start, including an embarrassing loss to William and Mary, meant had officially hit rock bottom. All signs pointed to Groh’s dismissal as a foregone conclusion, and after being on the proverbial “hot season” for several seasons, it finally seemed like a true consensus had been reached regarding the embattled coach. The only question remaining was whether or not he would be released during the bye week or if Littlepage and company might consider an “exit” plan.

Yet a road win last Saturday over Maryland extended the Cavs winning streak to three, got them to .500 on the season, and as expected, caught the attention of some national media and even elicited some minor praise. While entertaining and good for news stories, Groh’s trademark as an October turnaround specialist proves confounding to most Virginia fans and downright problematic to those who firmly believe “Groh-must-go.” As it stands, the rebound certainly complicates the situation, and a matter that seemed resolved just three games ago once again provokes far more questions and “what-ifs” than answers.

So, the Yellow Jackets come to town tomorrow in what has turned out to be a surprise mid-season ACC showdown in C’ville, yet, no matter the outcome, the game will likely do little to help clarify things for Virginia fans. A loss and clearly things get very dicey, yet not entirely hopeless, and with this crew, who knows how the rest of the season will play out. On the other hand, a Cavalier upset probably only makes the Duke game that much more nerve-wracking. Long-time Wahoo fans have come to almost expect having their hearts stomped on just when things start to look promising, and a flop against Duke at home seems so fitting to follow an upset-win over Ga Tech. Even if UVa finishes October at 5-3, becoming bowl eligible is still no sure bet.

Ultimately, anything after tomorrow’s game is neither here nor there, and as players and coaches alike always take it “one game at a time,” so too should Cav fans. The Ramblin’ Wreck visits tomorrow and recent history favors the Hoos. References to Ga. Tech’s current winless streak in Scott Stadium abound, and for those who follow the Cavaliers, it would not come as a complete shock if Virginia pulls off the upset. These two squads seem to have a knack for making sure the favored team suffers a disappointing and often season-altering defeat. If the Cavaliers want to continue the trend, the overwhelming consensus is that they must find a way to stop Tech’s high-powered running game.

Averaging over 281 yards per game, Ga Tech ranks second in the country in rushing and their 417 yards of total offense per contest is good for second in the ACC. Quarterback Josh Nesbitt orchestrates the Yellow Jackets’ triple-option, and in fact, the junior leads the team with 625 rushing yards on the season – good enough for 34^th in the country no less. Reigning ACC offensive player of the year Jonathan Dwyer follows closely behind Nesbitt with 593 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns on the season. How heavily do the Jackets rely on these two guys and their ground attack? Put it this way, last week against the Hokies, Ga Tech ran the ball 63 times (43 of which were either Dwyer or Nesbitt) and the two accounted for 204 of the team’s 309 rushing yards on the afternoon. For the season, Nesbitt has only 80 pass attempts, and last week against Va Tech he was a mere 1-7 for 51 yards. On the rare occasion they do go to the air, look for Demarius Thomas to be the prime target as he leads the team with 27 catches for 671 yards and 4 touchdowns on the year.

While every team facing the Ramblin’ Wreck knows what to expect, few have been able to slow them down. For the Hoos to control the Yellow Jackets' running attack, Hootie of the Daily Progress points to the importance of Virginia maintaining their defensive assignments while Michael Phillips of the RTD stresses being patient defensively. Virginia’s defense has proven decent most of the season and has especially come on strong during the three-game winning streak. The Cavs enter the contest ranked 21st nationally while only allowing 293 yards of total offense per game. Virginia will have to go without defensive end Matt Conrath, and he plays a key role in a unit that has fared relatively well against the run (ranking 59th nationally). Against Maryland the Hoos gave up less than 4 yards per carry (Va Tech surrendered almost 5 yards a carry to the Yellow Jackets last week). Forcing three turnovers was a key contributing factor in last year’s upset victory and this is one area that could likely play a big role in tomorrow’s contest – takeaways are certainly one way to slow Ga Tech’s ground attack, keep their offense off the field, and disrupt their ball control. After digging themselves a deep whole early in the season, Virginia is now back on the plus side in turnover margin and ranks 37th nationally

Of course, UVa's offense could do their part in helping slow the Ramblin' Wreck attack by sustaining long drives and putting plenty of points on the board. Sewell is probable for Saturday's contest and Mikell Simpson is expected to play which is good news for the Cavalier offense. Ga Tech has been allowing opposing offenses to move the ball well against them. The Yellow Jackets surrender almost 378 yards per game and give up 26 points per outing, so Virginia should be able to move the ball and generate some ball control of their own.

Call it Virginia’s version of Oktoberfest, chalk it up as yet another shining example of the “Octgrohber” effect, or simply blame it on Groh continuing to live up to his media nickname of “Mr. October,” but whatever the reason, Virginia's turnaround has certainly made things interesting. The players call him “Jeezy,” for Young Jeezy, and while there seems to be no obvious connection between Groh and the hip-hop artist, Young Jeezy’s single titled “Crazy World” off his 2008 album The Recession seems to aptly sum up the season thus far. Hoo knows, if history continues to repeat itself, things might just get even more crazy after Saturday.
Continue reading this post...

Why Plan for 2013 When You Can Go 5-7 in 2009?

Those of you who read the blog regularly know I've been critical of the media from time to time.  I'm sure its not always fair.  When you have to create material daily for often the most important sport your media outlet covers, it can be hard to come up with an original piece, especially when you've been doing it as long as some of these guys have.  Its even harder when the team stinks.

So I'd be remiss if I didn't recognize when journalists try to break out of the mundacity of daily coverage with a thought-provoking piece or two.  For people who follow UVA sports, the Washington Post's coverage (or lack thereof) of Virginia athletics is a popular whipping boy.  Their Twerp-centric coverage of Virginia's 20-9 victory over now 2-5 Maryland doesn't help.  But in the week leading up to the Maryland-Virginia tilt, I thought Zach Berman, who's been doing a solid job (not great -- you have to get more front page stories than Navy for that) covering UVA sports as part of the Post's new Cavalier Journal, had two such stories.  

The first was on Tuesday (we'll cover the second later in the week), when Berman examined Al Groh's sometimes maddening failure to redshirt freshmen.  This is real inside baseball stuff, as most casual Virginia fans wouldn't notice, and only the true die-hards harp about it.  But that's precisely why I applaud Berman tackling this topic instead of preparing the 105th "Groh is Mr. October piece."  I would have preferred that he dug a little deeper than just this season because this is a pattern, not an isolated occurrence, with Groh, and I didn't agree with what appeared to be his conclusion propped up by Groh's quotes on the subject - that it helps prepare players to contribute as sophomores, or even this year.   Unfortunately, my short-term schedule doesn't allow me to dig any deeper right now (perhaps a future post).  But I did want to throw it out there now.

In the article, Berman correctly notes that two players - Eugene Monroe and Alex Field - played as true freshman, and thus exhausted their eligibility last year and were not eligible to return to the Orange and Blue this season.  Monroe played in every game as a freshman, and isn't necessarily a fair example because as a projected top 10 pick, he probably would have left last year anyway.  But Field, who played five games, saw the field for 33 plays, and recorded all of two tackles as a freshman, is not playing football anywhere right now.  Even duplicating his 2008 line - 48 tackles, 7.5 TFL, and 4.5 sacks - would have made what looks like a solid defense even better.  

As ACC Sports Journal notes, Groh this season has already played twelve true freshman, some of whom no longer even travel with the team.  Think about that as you watch Groh burn a year of eligibility for speedster Tim Smith, who has no doubt contributed, but is now squarely behind at least Kris Burd, Vic Hall, and Jared Green on the depth chart, and who's skill set (speed on deep patterns) is readily duplicated by redshirt freshman Javaris Brown.  Or that Groh may have burned a year of eligibility for Dominique Wallace (who will have to hope for a medical redshirt after suffering a season-ending foot injury) when he had Mikell Simpson, Rashawn Jackson, and Torrey Mack on the roster. 

Now, we don't know what promises (if any) were made to players when they were recruited, and sometimes positional scarcity mandates that true freshman play.  Will Hill, who's now next in line at DE behind Nate Collins and Zane Parr now that Matt Conrath has gone down, probably would have been forced to play anyway.  Of course, that wouldn't be the case if the Hoos still had Field.  See how this pattern needs to be broken?

And even if true freshman are capable of contributing, I don't buy the notion, peddled by Groh in the article, that it helps prepare them for when they do play.  The best example I or anyone could come up with is Michael Vick.  When I was covering the same beat Berman now walks, Virginia Tech beat writers were quite literally giddy about Vick in the fall of 1998.  He wasn't playing, mind you, on a 9-3 Hokie squad that played later converted to safety Nick Sorenson as its signal-caller at times.  Vick seemed to do just fine without playing as a true freshman, going 11-0 in his redshirt year before losing a memorable National Championship game against Florida State.

Could Vick have helped Tech in 1998?  Absolutely.  Could he have helped avert the greatest comeback in Virginia history, when the Hoos rebounded from a 29-7 halftime deficit to nip the Hokies 36-32 in Blacksburg?  Probably, but we're glad he didn't.  Could he have made a very good 1998 Hokie team perhaps a great one a year ahead of schedule?  Sure.  It would even have been defensible - Tech needed help at QB in 1998, and Vick ended up leaving after two years anyway.   

But its damning on a team that isn't any good, and downright destructive to the future of the program, whether Groh's going to be here or not.  Alex Field will almost certainly never play on Sundays, but he's no longer a member of the Cavaliers because of 33 plays as a freshman.  Tim Smith won't be a member of the 2013 Hoos, and all he's got to show for it so far is a pair of TD catches in losing efforts.  As a fan of the team, I'm happy to see Tim Smith flying up and down the field on Saturdays.  As a supporter of the program, I see no reason why I couldn't wait a year to see it, with the promise of an extra year down the road when Smith could be really good.

So yeah, its great that Groh is Mr. October.  We just wonder whether he'd be doing a little better in September and November if he managed his redshirts a little better.  And we're glad Zach is talking about it.       Continue reading this post...

Ladies and Gentlemen, Your First Place Virginia Cavaliers

For the second time in three weeks, Al Groh just made sure his offense didn't lose the game, and put the game in his defense's hands.  Nate Collins made good on that gameplan in a muddy slogfest at College Park.  Twerps fans might say the better team lost, but Maryland wasn't better in the stat that often determines games (turnover margin was 4-1), and where it matters most: on the scoreboard. 

Some observations:

• It appeared that, like last week, it might be a costly win for the Hoos.  QB Jameel Sewell looked like he twisted his knee pretty good, but said he was fine after the game.  Matt Conrath might be a different story, but no update on either just yet. 
• After Collins' heroics late in the third quarter, QB Marc Verica threw one more pass the rest of the game.  I couldn't have been happier with the play-calling.  Like Groh's decision to punt late in the first half from the Terps' 35, Groh was simply playing the hand he's been dealt (or more appropriately, the hand he's dealt himself as a recruiter).
• In the absence of Mikell Simpson, Rashawn Jackson was pretty good.  I wouldn't call him magnificent, as Groh did (I'd expect that a guy as big as Jackson would run over people more, but I'm nitpicking). But he was rugged when he needed to be, specifically when his number was called ten straight times in the fourth quarter to salt the game away.
• Just as important to the Hoos' offense was QB, turned WR, sometimes CB, and occasional PR Vic Hall, who has developed into his roomate's favorite target at wideout.  Hall led the Hoos with 5 catches for 53 yards, and Sewell targeted #4 whenever the Hoos needed a play.
• The Turtles outgained the Hoos 284-201 and had 17 first downs to Virginia's 9.  But QB Chris Turner looked downright awful in the elements.  So it was a little puzzling to me why the Terps didn't run more (their usual M.O. notwithstanding).  I guess when your RBs put the ball on the ground as much as they do, that'll change your play-calling, which was run-dominant early.  Still, it makes no sense that Maryland threw more than they ran when they were running at four yards a clip in a mosh pit.  Virginia, meanwhile, had a much more sensible 38 run-26 pass split. 
• Virginia didn't often get to Turner (only one sack), but harassed him all day, and the secondary was sound.  On top of his game-winning TD, Collins had the team's only sack, two tackles for loss, and led the Hoos with nine tackles.  Not bad, eh?
• Finally, it was nice to see that coaching head-scratchers aren't limited to the Cavalier sideline.  With 1:54 on the clock and one timeout left, Maryland Coach Ralph Friedgen actually ran his punt team onto the field on fourth down in a 13-9 game.  Granted it was 4th & 18 from their own two, but if you punt, you're essentially conceding defeat in a 4-point game.  Virginia saved him by calling timeout (hard to blame them -- I'm sure they were just as confused as I was by the call), at which point Fridge thought better of it and sent his offense back on the field.  Amazes me that head coaches, epsecially those who don't call plays anymore like Fridge, can't seamlessly handle these situations.  But I guess that's why Maryland is 2-5.

Continue reading this post...

Another Border War

Last Saturday marked the first time all season a Virginia football game went according to the script. The Hoos and Hoosiers entered the contest moving in opposite directions and, as the odds-maker's favorite, those who set the lines were betting Virginia would be able to continue the trend. The Cavaliers did thier part by extending their winning streak to two games while sending a listless Indiana squad back to Bloomington with their third consecutive loss. The only real surprise was Virginia's complete dominance as the offense exploded for 47 points and the defense only surrendered a late touchdown after the outcome was already decided. In fact, last week's offensive output prompted one long-time fan who attended the game to admit she "almost" got tired of singing the Good Ol' Song. Thankfully almost every Hoo fan will gladly accept that as a good problem to have.

Tomorrow, the Cavaliers visit College Park for their second ACC road contest, and this time it's against their border rival to the north. Virginia's recent two-game winning streak has sparked a guarded sense of optimism, and Saturday's game against Maryland proves pivotal on many levels. Going 0-3 in September makes it hard to believe, but another conference win actually keeps the Hoos squarely in the ACC Championship race and improves their overall record to .500 on the season. In addition, a win would likely go a long way in helping further revive fan confidence as well as force outsiders to at least begin to take notice.

Most Wahoo fans remember Mikell Simpson's breakout performance against Maryland in 2007, and in that contest, he was at the center of two controversial plays that secured the win for Virginia. Heading into tomorrow's showdown with Maryland Simpson once again found himself in the spotlight, yet this time the questions were about whether or not he would play on Saturday. Unlike two seasons ago, it looks like things will not fall in Virginia's favor as Simpson is likely out for tomorrow's contest.

For the second week in a row, the Hoos play in a homecoming game, yet this time they serve as the guests. At 2-4 overall and 1-1 in the conference, the Terrapins, like Virginia, are looking at tomorrow's game as a chance to stay relevant in the ACC race and help make up for some bad early-season losses - including a home setback to Middle Tennessee State. Maryland's offense is led by senior quarterback Chris Turner who is coming off a solid outing last weekend against Wake Forest. The two-year starter ranks fifth in the conference averaging just under 250 passing yards per contest and recorded his fourth career 300-yard game last week in the loss to the Demon Deacons. Turner also tied a career best with 3 TD tosses.

Another Terrapin drawing a lot of attention is wide receiver Torrey Smith. Like N.C. State quarterback Russell Wilson, Smith is being billed as another in-state product that got away and proves a true multi-dimensional player. Smith ranks first in the nation averaging nearly 240 all-purpose yard per game and is 32nd in the nation with 85 receiving yards per outing. A prolific kick returner, Smith set the ACC single-season record last year with 1089 kick return yards, and last week against Wake Forest he returned his first kick 85 yards. Smith could present serious problems since the Cavalier's special teams unit continues to struggle.

Maryland's defense is anchored by linebacker Alex Wujciak and defensive back Anthony Wiseman. Wujciak averages 11 tackles per contest which is good enough to put him as the nation's active leader in career tackles per game, and he leads the ACC in tackles this season. Yet, despite their efforts, Maryland's total defense ranks 102nd in the nation and their scoring defense is 114th. So a renewed Sewell along with Vic Hall at the slot receiver spot should help ensure the Hoos pick where they left off a week ago. Even with Simpson out, Rashawn Jackson and Torrey Mack should still be able establish a solid ground attack.

With last week's record-low attendance (post-expansion) proves Cavalier fans aren't too terribly eager to hop right back on the bandwagon at the first sign of success - a surprise road win against Carolina wasn't enough to restore their faith. Two losing seasons out of the past three combined with a horrendous start to the '09 campaign, and Hoo nation has begun to expect the worst while, from the comfort of their couches, hope for the best. Virginia fans want to believe but are fearful of another collapse similar to last season. Members of the national media are starting to see signs of life but need more proof before truly buying into the idea that the Cavaliers are truly a different team from the one that lost to William and Mary. A win against the Terrapins might not be a complete cure, but it would serve as another step in the right direction.
Continue reading this post...

Thank God for Hoops Season

Amidst what appears to be another meh football campaign, buzz has been building all fall for the start of hoops season, which for true junkies starts Friday with the beginning of practice.  The buzz surrounding Virginia, of course, begins and ends with new coach Tony Bennett, the latest coaching savior brought over from a major conference school (albeit a lower tier school in said conference) to bring the Hoos back to the level they were in the 80s and early 90s under Terry Holland and, for a time, Jeff Jones. 

This is nothing new, of course.  The same buzz surrounded the fast-talking Pete Gillen and "we're going to play the right way" Calhoun-disciple Dave Leitao.  Anyone that tells you the buzz is any greater this time around is lying (and anyone that tells you that they're glad Virginia at least didn't go the mid-major route again is an idiot, since Gillen and Leitao came via the Big East from Providence and DePaul respectively).  Still, that hasn't stopped the Fourth Estate from the obligatory renewed optimism and different feel pieces in advance of the season.

We've also seen a number of pieces praising Bennett's superior recruiting efforts, here and here for example.  But let's not shortchange his predecessors, although it was popular to do so while they were here.  Leitao brought in, just last season, consensus top-25 prospect Sylven Landesberg, top-100 center Jon Brandenburg, and another highly-sought after big man (just ask UConn fans in particular) Assane Sene.  Before that, Leitao landed a highly-praised 2007 class, highlighted by top-100 guard Jeff Jones and in-state get Mike Scott.  Leitao also lined up top-100 SF Tristan Spurlock before he left.

My point is not relitigate the decision to fire Leitao (a decision I agreed with), or to caution against crowning Bennett as a crackerjack recruiter just yet based on getting LOIs from five kids, only two of which are top-100 players (but let's keep it in perspective, OK?).   

No, the point is that the cupboard is not exactly bare in Charlottesville.  So its possible, and maybe even likely, that Bennett will be able to avoid the obligatory rebuilding year that Gillen experienced in 1998-99, when he famously held open tryouts in his first season to fill out the roster (remember Raleigh "the Bartender" Harbour) and went 14-16, or that Leitao experienced in 2005-06, when he only had seven scholarship players and went 15-15.  Instead, Bennett should be able to skip right ahead to the second-year surge (like when Gillen finished 19-12 and just missed the tourney, or Leitao went 21-11 and didn't).  Both were based, in larger part for Leitao, on inheirited players (Leitao inheirited Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds from Gillen, just as Gillen benefitted from Jones-recruits Chris Williams and Adam Hall).  Even more than Gillen or Leitao, Bennett will benefit from the recruiting fruits of his predecessor.  He'll have five returning starters, including an all-ACC performer in Landesberg, a double-double machine in Mike Scott, and number of potentially emerging talents in SG Jeff Jones, PG Sammy Zieglinski, and C Assane Sene.  The only "meaningful" loss from last year's roster is Mamadi Diane, who averaged all of six points per game and was puzzlingly pulled in and out of the lineup by Leitao, and he should be easly replaced in the rotation by Spurlock. 

So if he can coach, and he won in Pullman, WA, a dumptruck of a college basketball town, so you know he can coach, things should get interesting, and exciting, real fast this season.  I'm reserving judgment on whether Bennett is the right fit long term (remember that Gillen and Leitao also spiked early in their careers, but couldn't continue the momentum).  But you should feel free to ignore early season prodictions of gloom for Virginia, like here for example, and those that are likely to come in the near future from the national media.  The Hoos will be good, and should contend for an NCAA bid this season.  Just remember that you heard it here first. 

And then, like I said, thank God for hoops season.   Continue reading this post...

Dominating Like #3 Used To

On the day Virginia honored Anthony Poindexter, one of my favorite UVA players of all-time and a guy who literally gave his left knee to the program, Virginia looked a lot like it did when #3 played for them.  Good thing they decided to honor Dex this month instead of last since the October Cavaliers look like a completely different animal than the September version. 

What's different? 

• They Settled on a Quarterback, Not Three: A month after heading into the season opener planning to play all three quarterbacks, someone had the sense to move Vic Hall off the QB spot (it was Hall himself), and Marc Verica did play Saturday, but it was (more appropriately) in mop-up duty.  As we've said before, Sewell has his flaws, but he gives this team its best chance to win games.  Now at least he has a chance to win them, not 1/3 of a chance.  
• They Gave Him the Damn Ball, and Now They're Winning: Before leaving the game with an injury, Mikell Simpson had touched the ball 19 times.  Four of those touches ended with touchdowns.  For two straight weeks, Virginia has rode its best player (#5 touched the ball 24 times at UNC) instead of treating him like a support player (13 carries in the first two games).  Get well soon Mikell. 
• Could It Be As Simple As Line Splits?  Virginia hasn't scrapped the spread.  They're still running out of the shotgun with 4 wides almost every down.  But starting with a close loss at S. Miss., Al Groh closed down the wide splits usually associated with the spread.  Whether it has helped protection, or simply made his o-linemen more comfortable, Virginia has been a different offense ever since.
• Better Defense, More Specifically Better Pass Rush: Indiana QB Ben Chappell looked miserable all day.  Virginia, most notably LB Cam Johnson, lived in the Hoosier backfield.  And it looked like a replay of what the Hoos did to TJ Yates a week before.  Its nice that Virginia has been able to give opponents a taste of the medicine they were getting last month, when Sewell, et al. were often running for their lives.
• Ras-I Dowling: The Hoos' sole preseason all-ACC selection seemed a step slow early, and was toasted for long touchdowns against William & Mary and TCU.  He was the best player on the field Saturday, forcing a fumble on Indiana's opening drive and picking off a pass in the second quarter.  Both TOs led to Cavalier touchdowns.  If Ras-I continues to play as he has the last two weeks, paired with Chris Cook and a better than expected safety corps, the Virginia secondary should be a real strength the rest of the way.
• The Schedule Eased Up, But Not for Long: When you looked the schedule coming into the season, September didn't look that bad.  Well, William & Mary is still a a 1-AA school, but they are 5-1.  No one's beaten TCU yet, including Clemson.  And Southern Miss has lost three straight since their comeback win against the Hoos, but all of those losses were on the road (makes scheduling a game at Hattiesburg seem even less sensible, if that were possible).  Since then, the Hoos have gotten well against an offensively-challenged North Carolina team that they always beat, and an Indiana team that hasn't won since completing the soft portion of their non-conference schedule (E. Kentucky, W. Michigan, and Akron) and looked like they had no interest in being in C'ville Saturday.  Unfortunately, the schedule tilts up from here.  Next week, the Hoos visit College Park (bring your flame retardant clothing) where its always been tough for them to win, and they may have to do it without Terp-killer Mikell Simpson.  And then a ranked Georgia Tech team comes calling looking for revenge for last season's upset loss in Atlanta.  

But hey, things are looking up at least for now, even if the Virginia fan base has tuned out (a new post-renovation record low of 45,371 attended the IU game, on homecoming weekend no less).  The Hoos have a chance Saturday at College Park to really get their attention back.    Continue reading this post...

Hoosiers in Hooville

Coming off their first win of the season, the Cavs host the Indiana Hoosiers for homecoming tomorrow. At first glance, the match-up looks more suited to be on the basketball schedule as Indiana is best known for its storied hoops program, and the Hoos reside in one of the country’s premiere basketball conferences. With that in mind, it comes as no big shock this marks the first time Indiana’s football program has made the trip to Charlottesville. On top of that, when two basketball-heavy schools meet on the gridiron, it becomes a made-for-internet event. If you don’t have a ticket, you at least better have broadband, since this game can only be seen on ESPN360.

At the moment, these two teams are literally the complete opposites of one another (arguably it started in the spring when Tony Bennett accepted the UVa job after having turned down Indiana the year before). This is the last non-conference game for both teams, and Indiana is 3-0 on the season against non Big-10 teams while the Hoos are 0-2 when playing teams outside the ACC. Virginia maintains an unblemished conference record while the Hoosiers have yet to log a win in the Big-10. The Hoosiers limp into the Hook on a two-game skid while the Hoos return home after notching their first win. So, after rattling off some relatively meaningless trends in an attempt to build some sort of a back drop, here is some reading material to help fill time during your internet refreshes and site reconnections.

Usually a Big-10 cellar dweller, IU has hopes of going to a bowl game for only the third time in past 16 seasons. A 3-0 start followed by an impressive, hard-fought loss at Michigan has the Hoosier squad thinking this could be the year. Sophomore Tandon Doss makes up a big part of Indiana’s offensive attack. The wide receiver ranks second in the Big-10 with 94 yards per game and averages 131 all purpose yards per contest. Quarterback Ben Campbell has completed 64% of his passes on the season and has already amassed over 1150 passing yards this year. Last week, Campbell became the first quarterback this year to throw for over 200 yards against Ohio State. However, with 6 picks to 5 touchdowns on the season, Ras-I, Chris Cook, and the gang might be able to turn some defense into offense.

In terms of defense, the Hoosiers appear to match up well against the Cavaliers, and in fact, the whole opposite thing comes into play again, yet this time it's advantage Indiana. IU has notched 14 sacks on the season, which ranks second in the Big-10. Virginia, on the other hand, has allowed 17 sacks which is good for second most in the ACC. The Hoosier Defense is led by All-America candidates Jammie Kirlew and Greg Middleton, and the two defensive ends have a combined career total of 43 sacks which represents the most of any tandem in the country. Kirlew leads the way this year with 9.5 tackles for a loss (good for 2nd in the Big-10 and 8th nationally) to go along with 3.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles. While Indiana's pass rush proves stout, the run defense appears a bit suspect after giving up 219 rushing yards and 4.7 yards per carry last week against the Buckeyes. This could be a weakness UVa can take advantage of as Mikell Simpson looks like he might be returning to form, and he looked a lot like the Simpson of 2007 last week against the Heels.

Typically, homecoming games are set up to be a cakewalk for the host team, yet Saturday's contest is an important game for both squads. In fact, it is a game Indiana circled on the schedule at the start of the season. Hopes of bowl games are still alive for both programs (albeit barely for the Hoos) and both teams probably like their chances on Saturday. On the surface, both teams recently started heading down somewhat opposite paths, yet the game likely proves to be good one. It will be interesting to see if the Cavs can continue the theme and keep the two squads moving in different directions.

Continue reading this post...

ACC-Big Ten Challenge, Football Version

Since its inception in 1999, the Big Ten has never won the ACC-BigTen Challenge.  The amusing part? The leagues actually agreed to swap the names every other year, so its the Big Ten-ACC Challenge this and every other year.  Um, don't you have to win the challenge to get that privilege?  Shouldn't they just change it to the ACC - Big Ten Challenge until further notice? Yet somehow the Big Ten always seems to get equal or more bids to the Big Dance than the ACC.

But that's a rant for another day (although you can tell where my mind is at, October or not).  No, Virginia and Indiana play this weekend in football, where the Big Ten should have the advantage, right?  Well, not necessarily.  The Big Ten's failures (most notably Ohio State's) on the country's biggest stage is well documented, but it goes deeper than that.  So how do the conferences stack up against each other on the gridiron?

We decided to look into it.  The two conferences have not played yet this season, and  only sparsely in the last three years.  There's last year's academic bowl - Northwestern 24, Duke 20 (I've yet to confirm the rumor that the winner was decided through a game of Trivial Pursuit).  And then there's the 2007 Champs Sports Bowl - Boston College 24, Michigan State 21.  So two games over three years, and a split at that.  Not much help.

How about non-conference games in general? Thankfully, a Missouri blog - tigerboard.com - has done some great analysis on this, so I don't have to.  Not surprisingly from UVA's perspective since they're 0-3 themselves, the ACC has struggled in out of conference games this season.  Tigerboard's analysis is only current thru 9/24 (i.e. doesn't count the past two weekend's games).  But even if you add those more recent games in, the ACC is 12-11 against FBS teams; the Big Ten is 19-9.  Much better for the Big Ten. 

However, if you narrow it down to games against other BCS conference teams, the ACC and Big Ten are an identical 6-7 (including games against Notre Dame, of which the Big Ten has three). So it appears that the Big Ten has been fattening up on non-BCS opponents.  To be sure, the Big Ten should get some credit for actually beating them - Virginia certainly hasn't - but it does undercut the Big Ten's reputation as a superior football conference.   

It gets even shakier for the Big Ten if you look at the last decade.  The Big Ten simply does not have the non-conference advantage over the ACC you'd think it would as a supposedly powerhouse football conference.  In fact, it has none at all.  Since 2000 (for this, I did not adjust tigerboard's numbers to add the last two weekend's games), the ACC is a mediocre 99-108, a .478 winning percentage, against BCS conference opponents.  But the Big Ten is actually worse: 84-93, a .475 clip.  Now, of course, just as this season's numbers don't take into account strength of opponent, neither do the last decade's numbers.  But its a disparity you don't expect between what's known as a football conference and one that's known, even on this blog, as a basketball one.  

Of course, nobody thinks of Indiana as being one of the Big Ten's football powers anyway.  But when you look at those numbers, the fact that Indiana is 3-2 (wins against W. Ky., E. Mich., and Akron), or that the Hoosiers gamely fell, 36-33, at then-ranked Michigan, doesn't seem to mean a whole lot.  That's because it appears, just as in basketball, that the Big Ten is trading on an unwarranted reputation.  So Big Ten opponent or not, this is a game Virginia can, and at home probably should, win Saturday.   
  Continue reading this post...

Nothing Like a Trip to Chapel Hill to Cure What Ails You

Amidst all the talk of the new offense, the fact that the defense has uncharacteristically struggled has been lost in the conversation.  Not Saturday.  They could have played eight quarters, and the Heels still wouldn't have crossed the goal line.  Some thoughts on Virginia's first win of the season:

• LB Steve Greer set the tone on the opening drive with two tackles for loss.  Matt Conrath (3 batted balls) continued the momentum.  Nate Collins finished the job with a hit on T.J. Yates that led to a Chase Minnifield interception, setting up the game-clinching TD. 
• If he's going down, Al Groh is going to go down his way.  From his offensive adjustments two weeks ago to his defensive game plan against UNC, Al Groh is putting his stamp on this team. Even on offense, the game was called to avoid mistakes under the assumption that UNC couldn't score without help.  They couldn't.  
• I'll admit I was a little nervous about how Virignia would respond after literally getting run over in back to back weeks against TCU and S. Miss.  Then I saw John Shoop in the coach's box calling UNC's plays and immediately felt better. 
• As we've said in this space before, Mikell Simpson is the best offensive player on the team, and UVA should be getting him the ball more.  Inspired by watching 2007 game film Friday night, Simpson WAS the offense on Saturday, with 20 carries for 102 yards and a TD, and a team-leading four catches for 45 yards.  That wasn't so hard, was it?
• Less than a month after Virginia played three QBs in the season opener, its now exclusively Jameel Sewell's show.  Marc Verica made a brief appearance, but only because Sewell was nursing a hand injury at the time.  And Vic Hall took himself out of the QB picture with an act of selflessness.  Sewell is flawed - he makes bad decisions from time to time, sails throws on an almost regular basis, and doesn't always seem to see the field particularly well - but he gives Virginia its best chance to win.  If Sewell can stick to the script - only 169 total yards but ZERO turnovers on Saturday - Virginia will at least be competitive the rest of the way.   
• Jared Green isn't a star but he's developing a nice little niche as 3rd down receiver.  Only two catches, but both moved the sticks on 3rd down.
• Tip of the cap to K Robert Randolph.  Teams often don't notice the kicker unless he's missing kicks, so we should recogize them when they do the job.  Randoph went 3-for-3 to stake Virginia to a lead before Simpson's TD sealed the deal.

Virginia is now 7-2 against North Carolina under Groh and 10-1 in October under Groh since 2007.  Perfect storm?  Maybe.  But the calendar doesn't turn from October until four more games are played.  November largely has been a different story (13-17, including 0-4 last year, under Groh), so UVA better get fat while it can. Continue reading this post...

Cavs/Heels, Part 114

Its probably too late to discuss turnarounds or bowl chances.  Too many tough games left on the schedule, and not enough signs of life.  As the Daily Press notes, Virginia is in the midst of its longest losing streak since 1982 (seven and counting dating back to last season).  But as we noted earlier in the week, Virginia's annual matchup with its state-school neighbor to the south has often produced surprising Cavalier victories.

Reports abound of a productive bye week, here and here.  Hootie, noting Groh's 6-2 mark against UNC, thinks this might be the week the Cavs may be able to break through with a W. North Carolina has struggled offensively, especially in last week's 24-7 loss at Georgia Tech.  Although its a bit much to call them hapless.  Last time I checked, hapless looked a lot more like 0-3 than 3-1, even if those wins are against the Citadel, UConn, and ECU.  And after watching TCU's Jerry Hughes live in the Cavalier backfield three weeks ago, Virginia can't be looking forward to seeing Robert Quinn, he of 5.5 TFL, three sacks, and an uplifting comeback story.  Mr. Quinn is probably licking his chops to get after the team that has surrendered the most sacks in the nation this season. 

Speaking of struggling offenses, the Post notes its Sewell's show with Hall's status still uncertain.  Doug Doughty notes that they'd just like to keep Sewell upright.  At least perhaps his receiving corps are coming around.  After two games in which they were largely invisible, the Cavs' receiving corps showed improvement against S. Miss.  The Cavs are hoping rookies Tim Smith and Javaris Brown continue to develop in order to supplement the production of "vets" Kris Burd and Jared Green.  The Post also notes that Smith is working his way into the KO return rotation.

Finally, its not surprising to see guys like Hootie picking the Cavs to win, but it is a little surprising to see ESPN saying the same thing.  Its not out of the realm of possibility, but something tells me Carolina is looking to make a statement at home coming off last week's loss at Ga. Tech.  So don't hold your breath, and remind yourself its only two weeks until basketball practice starts. Continue reading this post...