Not even close. Without Sylven Landesburg, Virginia didn't stand a chance. Kyle Singler, John Scheyer and the rest of the Dookies got the memo. It appears the Hoos also read the writing on the wall and bought into their own demise before the game even started. Duke immediately opened the game with a 20-4 run and never looked back. Both teams knew the storyline and played their roles accordingly. The weekend produced a handful of upsets in college basketball, but sadly, this one went exactly as scripted. Not a whole lot to say about this one, but here are few random musings following the debacle.
- Entering the season, the Society thought the cupboard might not be all that bare and that Tony Bennett had inherited more talent than the 4th estate realized (given they predicted the Hoos to finish last). Landesburg's absence last night presented a good opportunity for some others to step up and prove their mettle. Jerome Meyinsse came to play and posted a career high 21 points. Yet, you know it's likely not a good sign when a guy who has seen very little action prior to this year scores nearly 50% of the team's points for the game. No one else could muster double figures. For the second game in a row, Mike Scott was shut out. Bottom line, the cupboard is bare, and this Virginia squad is remarkably devoid of ACC-caliber talent. Guys like Sammy Zeglinski, Mustapha Farakhan and Jeff Jones all show flashes which leads fans to think these guys could blossom into solid scorers and make Virginia a dangerous team. Zeglinski has done the best of the three, showed some nice improvement to start the season, but has seemingly disappeared down the stretch - only a sophomore, there's still time. Farakhan will likely finish out his career as a streaky hot and cold player while, by all accounts, Jones looks destine to be an overall bust. Mike Scott continues to improve year-over-year (statistically) but still seems to be continuing a pattern of fading towards the end of the season. Meyinsse has been a very nice surprise this season - had Cav fans been saying similar things about Zeglinski, Farakhan, and Jones, this season might have turned out a little differently.
- Recently, Doug Doughty of the Roanoke Times suggested he was "not going to let first-year head coach Tony Bennett off the hook" in terms of his role in Virginia's recent skid. Hey, the Hoos have lost seven straight, so certainly everyone involved in the program deserves some portion of the blame. Doughty notes the team has regressed - fair assessment - and that a coaching getting 1.7M a year should get the most out of his players. The latter view appears to be a slippery slope....Mike Scott has failed to make a basket in the past two games. Last time I checked, the coaches don't play the game (though the Hoos would likely get a big boost offensively if Bennett suited up - he looks like he can still knock it down). Can coaches get players to make shots? Last night marked the third time Virginia has failed to crack 50 points in a game - the last time that happened was 25 years ago. Again, it's sort of a chicken or the egg - some will blame coaching, and some will blame talent. What is more tangible is recruiting (many argue it's all about the Jimmies and Joes not the X's and O's), and even when faced with a shortened recruiting cycle, Bennett put together a class that exceeds anything assembled by Leitao. That combined with the fact UVa could still likely finish the season better than most expected gives the impression that coaching might not be the biggest issue.
- With all that said, Virginia does need to find a way to stop the bleeding. The Hoos made strides to start conference play, yet the recent slide has nearly wiped out the earlier accomplishments. Finishing the year on a 10-game skid (dropping the next two and bowing out in the first round of the ACC) would make for an extremely long offseason. If the Hoos can show some life and muster a couple of wins to end the season on a positive note, it would go a long way in providing the slight glimmer of hope Virginia fans so desperately need. For those lukewarm on Bennett, a couple of wins could help prove the coach can find a way to reverse the fortunes when the chips are down. For those convinced the squad is too undermanned, ending the season on a winning streak would show the team's got a little pride left. Either way, for the most part, we all want to believe, and we had reason, but now it appears to be slipping away. Just give us something to hold on to - any signs of life will do.
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Who thought we'd see the day when it would be late October and Virginia would have a worse record than Duke? Anyone? Didn't think so. By this time of year, Duke fans are usually following reports out of early season basketball practice. OK, they probably still are, but Duke football is no longer a free win on the schedule, as evidenced by the 31-3 thrashing Virginia suffered last year in Durham.
The reason is simple, and it starts at the top (hint, hint Craig Littlepage). Head Coach David Cutcliffe, who mentored Peyton Manning as OC at Tennessee and brother Eli as HC at Ole Miss, has brought much-needed credibility to the program. Sure, there have been bumps in the road, like a season-opening loss to Mike London's 1-AA Richmond squad (second hint, hint). Its still Duke, after all. But there have been signs of progress as well. The Blue Devils played Va. Tech closer than expected in a 34-26 loss, and followed that up with two wins at N.C. State and v. Maryland. Its not the Steve Spurrier-era redux just yet, but its respectable.
That's mostly because of the offensive acumen Cutcliffe brought with him. Duke averages just under 30 points a game, with most of the offense coming through the air (322.6 ypg passing v. only 74.4 ypg rushing). QB Thaddeus Lewis, a four-year starter that has only gotten better under Cutcliffe, is the straw that stirs the drink for virtually everything Duke does on offense. Lewis has a cannon for an arm, and has gradually increased his completion percentage and cut down on mistakes as his career has progressed. The result this season is a signal-caller completing 64% of his throws with 14 TDs against only 3 ints.
Fortunately for the Hoos, Duke's strength plays right into theirs. Virginia has struggled this season with run-dominant attacks (203 and 214 yards rushing allowed to TCU and S. Miss. respectively before surrendering last week's jaw-dropping 362 to Ga. Tech). But they've held in check pass-first offenses Indiana and Maryland behind a stalwart secondary. Expect the same Saturday against the Dukies.
It will also help Virginia that while Cutcliffe has improved the offense, its still the same old Duke defense. The Devils surrender 25 points and 139 yards rushing per contest. Expect a heavy dose of Mikell Simpson.
(Ed. note - Simpson should be fresh after only six carries against Ga. Tech. I know the run game was stifled early, but after playing to the team's strength -- defense -- by playing it close to the vest offensively during a three-game winning streak, Groh didn't do a whole lot to protect his charges against the Jackets. With no offensive drives that lasted longer than 2:30 in the first half, Virginia was set up to surrender a back-breaking 10+ minute drive to start the second half. Maybe the run was never going to work, but left with no time to recover because Virginia barely tried to run the ball to at least eat up some clock, the defense was bound to wear down eventually, and it did).
Its a game Virginia should win, and if Groh holds out any hope (if there's any left) of keeping his job, a game he almost has to win. It'd also help Groh's cause if more than 40,000 Virginia fans show up to watch. I'm relatively confident about the win, less so about the attendance. That might be a more damning commentary on the state of the program than any doubt surrounding the outcome of the Duke game.
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