For the second time in three weeks, Virginia fought gamely for a half against a superiorly talented foe. The Hoos pulled out all the stops -- a little Wildcat, a QB throwback, and even a gutsy and exhilarating go on the last play of the first half. Unfortunately, Virginia didn't seem to have any tricks left for the second half, when things returned to form for Atlantic Division champ Clemson in a 34-21 result.
Some thoughts on the Cavs' eighth loss of the season, their most since 1986:
- The offense to open the game looked like it probably should have all season. All thirteen of the Hoos' offensive plays in the first quarter were on the ground. It didn't matter that the first drive ended in a fumble, or that the second ended in a punt. The score after the first quarter was 7-7, and just as important the time of possession was 8-7 Virginia.
- Like the Virginia Tech game last season when Vic Hall got the surprise start at QB, Virginia broke out a new toy with Mikell Simpson in the wildcat formation. Groh was quoted as saying that they didn't just put that in this week; they just hadn't used it in a game. Um, as many of us were thinking last season when they finally took the wraps off Hall, what took so long?
- The end of the half go for it was one of those no-no-no-yes! moments. You have a chance to cut it to one score with a FG, and you're facing the ACC's best pass rush with 8 seconds left from the 23-yard line. A short pass, which is all they had time for if they still wanted to preserve time for a FG, doesn't get you in the end zone, so why risk it? Instead, Virginia calls a wheel route to Simpson, which if incomplete leaves the Cavs with no time for a FG. But the play worked. 24-21 into halftime. Gutsy, even if foolhardy, call.
- Unfortunately, that was the last play of Simpson's afternoon. Without their star runner in the second half, Virginia gained only 40 more yards, and didn't score again.
- On the other side of the ball, there was only so much Virginia could do to slow down a clicking Clemson offense. But UVA still held the Tigers under 400 yards for the first time in five games. The Hoos actually kept star C.J. Spiller (19 carries, 60 yards) in relative check. They had a little more trouble with speedy wideout Jacoby Ford, who had 6 catches for 106 yards and a TD.
- The last time the Cavs lost eight games was 1986. It will have to beat Tech to avoid its worst season since 1982. Ouch.
Continue reading this post...
Who thought we'd see the day when it would be late October and Virginia would have a worse record than Duke? Anyone? Didn't think so. By this time of year, Duke fans are usually following reports out of early season basketball practice. OK, they probably still are, but Duke football is no longer a free win on the schedule, as evidenced by the 31-3 thrashing Virginia suffered last year in Durham.
The reason is simple, and it starts at the top (hint, hint Craig Littlepage). Head Coach David Cutcliffe, who mentored Peyton Manning as OC at Tennessee and brother Eli as HC at Ole Miss, has brought much-needed credibility to the program. Sure, there have been bumps in the road, like a season-opening loss to Mike London's 1-AA Richmond squad (second hint, hint). Its still Duke, after all. But there have been signs of progress as well. The Blue Devils played Va. Tech closer than expected in a 34-26 loss, and followed that up with two wins at N.C. State and v. Maryland. Its not the Steve Spurrier-era redux just yet, but its respectable.
That's mostly because of the offensive acumen Cutcliffe brought with him. Duke averages just under 30 points a game, with most of the offense coming through the air (322.6 ypg passing v. only 74.4 ypg rushing). QB Thaddeus Lewis, a four-year starter that has only gotten better under Cutcliffe, is the straw that stirs the drink for virtually everything Duke does on offense. Lewis has a cannon for an arm, and has gradually increased his completion percentage and cut down on mistakes as his career has progressed. The result this season is a signal-caller completing 64% of his throws with 14 TDs against only 3 ints.
Fortunately for the Hoos, Duke's strength plays right into theirs. Virginia has struggled this season with run-dominant attacks (203 and 214 yards rushing allowed to TCU and S. Miss. respectively before surrendering last week's jaw-dropping 362 to Ga. Tech). But they've held in check pass-first offenses Indiana and Maryland behind a stalwart secondary. Expect the same Saturday against the Dukies.
It will also help Virginia that while Cutcliffe has improved the offense, its still the same old Duke defense. The Devils surrender 25 points and 139 yards rushing per contest. Expect a heavy dose of Mikell Simpson.
(Ed. note - Simpson should be fresh after only six carries against Ga. Tech. I know the run game was stifled early, but after playing to the team's strength -- defense -- by playing it close to the vest offensively during a three-game winning streak, Groh didn't do a whole lot to protect his charges against the Jackets. With no offensive drives that lasted longer than 2:30 in the first half, Virginia was set up to surrender a back-breaking 10+ minute drive to start the second half. Maybe the run was never going to work, but left with no time to recover because Virginia barely tried to run the ball to at least eat up some clock, the defense was bound to wear down eventually, and it did).
Its a game Virginia should win, and if Groh holds out any hope (if there's any left) of keeping his job, a game he almost has to win. It'd also help Groh's cause if more than 40,000 Virginia fans show up to watch. I'm relatively confident about the win, less so about the attendance. That might be a more damning commentary on the state of the program than any doubt surrounding the outcome of the Duke game.
Continue reading this post...
What in the world has happened? Only a month ago, this thing was all sorted out – a horrific 0-3 start, including an embarrassing loss to William and Mary, meant had officially hit rock bottom. All signs pointed to Groh’s dismissal as a foregone conclusion, and after being on the proverbial “hot season” for several seasons, it finally seemed like a true consensus had been reached regarding the embattled coach. The only question remaining was whether or not he would be released during the bye week or if Littlepage and company might consider an “exit” plan.
Yet a road win last Saturday over Maryland extended the Cavs winning streak to three, got them to .500 on the season, and as expected, caught the attention of some national media and even elicited some minor praise. While entertaining and good for news stories, Groh’s trademark as an October turnaround specialist proves confounding to most Virginia fans and downright problematic to those who firmly believe “Groh-must-go.” As it stands, the rebound certainly complicates the situation, and a matter that seemed resolved just three games ago once again provokes far more questions and “what-ifs” than answers.
So, the Yellow Jackets come to town tomorrow in what has turned out to be a surprise mid-season ACC showdown in C’ville, yet, no matter the outcome, the game will likely do little to help clarify things for Virginia fans. A loss and clearly things get very dicey, yet not entirely hopeless, and with this crew, who knows how the rest of the season will play out. On the other hand, a Cavalier upset probably only makes the Duke game that much more nerve-wracking. Long-time Wahoo fans have come to almost expect having their hearts stomped on just when things start to look promising, and a flop against Duke at home seems so fitting to follow an upset-win over Ga Tech. Even if UVa finishes October at 5-3, becoming bowl eligible is still no sure bet.
Ultimately, anything after tomorrow’s game is neither here nor there, and as players and coaches alike always take it “one game at a time,” so too should Cav fans. The Ramblin’ Wreck visits tomorrow and recent history favors the Hoos. References to Ga. Tech’s current winless streak in Scott Stadium abound, and for those who follow the Cavaliers, it would not come as a complete shock if Virginia pulls off the upset. These two squads seem to have a knack for making sure the favored team suffers a disappointing and often season-altering defeat. If the Cavaliers want to continue the trend, the overwhelming consensus is that they must find a way to stop Tech’s high-powered running game.
Averaging over 281 yards per game, Ga Tech ranks second in the country in rushing and their 417 yards of total offense per contest is good for second in the ACC. Quarterback Josh Nesbitt orchestrates the Yellow Jackets’ triple-option, and in fact, the junior leads the team with 625 rushing yards on the season – good enough for 34th in the country no less. Reigning ACC offensive player of the year Jonathan Dwyer follows closely behind Nesbitt with 593 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns on the season. How heavily do the Jackets rely on these two guys and their ground attack? Put it this way, last week against the Hokies, Ga Tech ran the ball 63 times (43 of which were either Dwyer or Nesbitt) and the two accounted for 204 of the team’s 309 rushing yards on the afternoon. For the season, Nesbitt has only 80 pass attempts, and last week against Va Tech he was a mere 1-7 for 51 yards. On the rare occasion they do go to the air, look for Demarius Thomas to be the prime target as he leads the team with 27 catches for 671 yards and 4 touchdowns on the year.
While every team facing the Ramblin’ Wreck knows what to expect, few have been able to slow them down. For the Hoos to control the Yellow Jackets' running attack, Hootie of the Daily Progress points to the importance of Virginia maintaining their defensive assignments while Michael Phillips of the RTD stresses being patient defensively. Virginia’s defense has proven decent most of the season and has especially come on strong during the three-game winning streak. The Cavs enter the contest ranked 21st nationally while only allowing 293 yards of total offense per game. Virginia will have to go without defensive end Matt Conrath, and he plays a key role in a unit that has fared relatively well against the run (ranking 59th nationally). Against Maryland the Hoos gave up less than 4 yards per carry (Va Tech surrendered almost 5 yards a carry to the Yellow Jackets last week). Forcing three turnovers was a key contributing factor in last year’s upset victory and this is one area that could likely play a big role in tomorrow’s contest – takeaways are certainly one way to slow Ga Tech’s ground attack, keep their offense off the field, and disrupt their ball control. After digging themselves a deep whole early in the season, Virginia is now back on the plus side in turnover margin and ranks 37th nationally
Of course, UVa's offense could do their part in helping slow the Ramblin' Wreck attack by sustaining long drives and putting plenty of points on the board. Sewell is probable for Saturday's contest and Mikell Simpson is expected to play which is good news for the Cavalier offense. Ga Tech has been allowing opposing offenses to move the ball well against them. The Yellow Jackets surrender almost 378 yards per game and give up 26 points per outing, so Virginia should be able to move the ball and generate some ball control of their own.
Call it Virginia’s version of Oktoberfest, chalk it up as yet another shining example of the “Octgrohber” effect, or simply blame it on Groh continuing to live up to his media nickname of “Mr. October,” but whatever the reason, Virginia's turnaround has certainly made things interesting. The players call him “Jeezy,” for Young Jeezy, and while there seems to be no obvious connection between Groh and the hip-hop artist, Young Jeezy’s single titled “Crazy World” off his 2008 album The Recession seems to aptly sum up the season thus far. Hoo knows, if history continues to repeat itself, things might just get even more crazy after Saturday.
Continue reading this post...
Last Saturday marked the first time all season a Virginia football game went according to the script. The Hoos and Hoosiers entered the contest moving in opposite directions and, as the odds-maker's favorite, those who set the lines were betting Virginia would be able to continue the trend. The Cavaliers did thier part by extending their winning streak to two games while sending a listless Indiana squad back to Bloomington with their third consecutive loss. The only real surprise was Virginia's complete dominance as the offense exploded for 47 points and the defense only surrendered a late touchdown after the outcome was already decided. In fact, last week's offensive output prompted one long-time fan who attended the game to admit she "almost" got tired of singing the Good Ol' Song. Thankfully almost every Hoo fan will gladly accept that as a good problem to have.
Tomorrow, the Cavaliers visit College Park for their second ACC road contest, and this time it's against their border rival to the north. Virginia's recent two-game winning streak has sparked a guarded sense of optimism, and Saturday's game against Maryland proves pivotal on many levels. Going 0-3 in September makes it hard to believe, but another conference win actually keeps the Hoos squarely in the ACC Championship race and improves their overall record to .500 on the season. In addition, a win would likely go a long way in helping further revive fan confidence as well as force outsiders to at least begin to take notice.
Most Wahoo fans remember Mikell Simpson's breakout performance against Maryland in 2007, and in that contest, he was at the center of two controversial plays that secured the win for Virginia. Heading into tomorrow's showdown with Maryland Simpson once again found himself in the spotlight, yet this time the questions were about whether or not he would play on Saturday. Unlike two seasons ago, it looks like things will not fall in Virginia's favor as Simpson is likely out for tomorrow's contest.
For the second week in a row, the Hoos play in a homecoming game, yet this time they serve as the guests. At 2-4 overall and 1-1 in the conference, the Terrapins, like Virginia, are looking at tomorrow's game as a chance to stay relevant in the ACC race and help make up for some bad early-season losses - including a home setback to Middle Tennessee State. Maryland's offense is led by senior quarterback Chris Turner who is coming off a solid outing last weekend against Wake Forest. The two-year starter ranks fifth in the conference averaging just under 250 passing yards per contest and recorded his fourth career 300-yard game last week in the loss to the Demon Deacons. Turner also tied a career best with 3 TD tosses.
Another Terrapin drawing a lot of attention is wide receiver Torrey Smith. Like N.C. State quarterback Russell Wilson, Smith is being billed as another in-state product that got away and proves a true multi-dimensional player. Smith ranks first in the nation averaging nearly 240 all-purpose yard per game and is 32nd in the nation with 85 receiving yards per outing. A prolific kick returner, Smith set the ACC single-season record last year with 1089 kick return yards, and last week against Wake Forest he returned his first kick 85 yards. Smith could present serious problems since the Cavalier's special teams unit continues to struggle.
Maryland's defense is anchored by linebacker Alex Wujciak and defensive back Anthony Wiseman. Wujciak averages 11 tackles per contest which is good enough to put him as the nation's active leader in career tackles per game, and he leads the ACC in tackles this season. Yet, despite their efforts, Maryland's total defense ranks 102nd in the nation and their scoring defense is 114th. So a renewed Sewell along with Vic Hall at the slot receiver spot should help ensure the Hoos pick where they left off a week ago. Even with Simpson out, Rashawn Jackson and Torrey Mack should still be able establish a solid ground attack.
With last week's record-low attendance (post-expansion) proves Cavalier fans aren't too terribly eager to hop right back on the bandwagon at the first sign of success - a surprise road win against Carolina wasn't enough to restore their faith. Two losing seasons out of the past three combined with a horrendous start to the '09 campaign, and Hoo nation has begun to expect the worst while, from the comfort of their couches, hope for the best. Virginia fans want to believe but are fearful of another collapse similar to last season. Members of the national media are starting to see signs of life but need more proof before truly buying into the idea that the Cavaliers are truly a different team from the one that lost to William and Mary. A win against the Terrapins might not be a complete cure, but it would serve as another step in the right direction.
Continue reading this post...
On the day Virginia honored Anthony Poindexter, one of my favorite UVA players of all-time and a guy who literally gave his left knee to the program, Virginia looked a lot like it did when #3 played for them. Good thing they decided to honor Dex this month instead of last since the October Cavaliers look like a completely different animal than the September version.
What's different?
- They Settled on a Quarterback, Not Three: A month after heading into the season opener planning to play all three quarterbacks, someone had the sense to move Vic Hall off the QB spot (it was Hall himself), and Marc Verica did play Saturday, but it was (more appropriately) in mop-up duty. As we've said before, Sewell has his flaws, but he gives this team its best chance to win games. Now at least he has a chance to win them, not 1/3 of a chance.
- They Gave Him the Damn Ball, and Now They're Winning: Before leaving the game with an injury, Mikell Simpson had touched the ball 19 times. Four of those touches ended with touchdowns. For two straight weeks, Virginia has rode its best player (#5 touched the ball 24 times at UNC) instead of treating him like a support player (13 carries in the first two games). Get well soon Mikell.
- Could It Be As Simple As Line Splits? Virginia hasn't scrapped the spread. They're still running out of the shotgun with 4 wides almost every down. But starting with a close loss at S. Miss., Al Groh closed down the wide splits usually associated with the spread. Whether it has helped protection, or simply made his o-linemen more comfortable, Virginia has been a different offense ever since.
- Better Defense, More Specifically Better Pass Rush: Indiana QB Ben Chappell looked miserable all day. Virginia, most notably LB Cam Johnson, lived in the Hoosier backfield. And it looked like a replay of what the Hoos did to TJ Yates a week before. Its nice that Virginia has been able to give opponents a taste of the medicine they were getting last month, when Sewell, et al. were often running for their lives.
- Ras-I Dowling: The Hoos' sole preseason all-ACC selection seemed a step slow early, and was toasted for long touchdowns against William & Mary and TCU. He was the best player on the field Saturday, forcing a fumble on Indiana's opening drive and picking off a pass in the second quarter. Both TOs led to Cavalier touchdowns. If Ras-I continues to play as he has the last two weeks, paired with Chris Cook and a better than expected safety corps, the Virginia secondary should be a real strength the rest of the way.
- The Schedule Eased Up, But Not for Long: When you looked the schedule coming into the season, September didn't look that bad. Well, William & Mary is still a a 1-AA school, but they are 5-1. No one's beaten TCU yet, including Clemson. And Southern Miss has lost three straight since their comeback win against the Hoos, but all of those losses were on the road (makes scheduling a game at Hattiesburg seem even less sensible, if that were possible). Since then, the Hoos have gotten well against an offensively-challenged North Carolina team that they always beat, and an Indiana team that hasn't won since completing the soft portion of their non-conference schedule (E. Kentucky, W. Michigan, and Akron) and looked like they had no interest in being in C'ville Saturday. Unfortunately, the schedule tilts up from here. Next week, the Hoos visit College Park (bring your flame retardant clothing) where its always been tough for them to win, and they may have to do it without Terp-killer Mikell Simpson. And then a ranked Georgia Tech team comes calling looking for revenge for last season's upset loss in Atlanta.
But hey, things are looking up at least for now, even if the Virginia fan base has tuned out (a new post-renovation record low of 45,371 attended the IU game, on homecoming weekend no less). The Hoos have a chance Saturday at College Park to really get their attention back.
Continue reading this post...
Amidst all the talk of the new offense, the fact that the defense has uncharacteristically struggled has been lost in the conversation. Not Saturday. They could have played eight quarters, and the Heels still wouldn't have crossed the goal line. Some thoughts on Virginia's first win of the season:
- LB Steve Greer set the tone on the opening drive with two tackles for loss. Matt Conrath (3 batted balls) continued the momentum. Nate Collins finished the job with a hit on T.J. Yates that led to a Chase Minnifield interception, setting up the game-clinching TD.
- If he's going down, Al Groh is going to go down his way. From his offensive adjustments two weeks ago to his defensive game plan against UNC, Al Groh is putting his stamp on this team. Even on offense, the game was called to avoid mistakes under the assumption that UNC couldn't score without help. They couldn't.
- I'll admit I was a little nervous about how Virignia would respond after literally getting run over in back to back weeks against TCU and S. Miss. Then I saw John Shoop in the coach's box calling UNC's plays and immediately felt better.
- As we've said in this space before, Mikell Simpson is the best offensive player on the team, and UVA should be getting him the ball more. Inspired by watching 2007 game film Friday night, Simpson WAS the offense on Saturday, with 20 carries for 102 yards and a TD, and a team-leading four catches for 45 yards. That wasn't so hard, was it?
- Less than a month after Virginia played three QBs in the season opener, its now exclusively Jameel Sewell's show. Marc Verica made a brief appearance, but only because Sewell was nursing a hand injury at the time. And Vic Hall took himself out of the QB picture with an act of selflessness. Sewell is flawed - he makes bad decisions from time to time, sails throws on an almost regular basis, and doesn't always seem to see the field particularly well - but he gives Virginia its best chance to win. If Sewell can stick to the script - only 169 total yards but ZERO turnovers on Saturday - Virginia will at least be competitive the rest of the way.
- Jared Green isn't a star but he's developing a nice little niche as 3rd down receiver. Only two catches, but both moved the sticks on 3rd down.
- Tip of the cap to K Robert Randolph. Teams often don't notice the kicker unless he's missing kicks, so we should recogize them when they do the job. Randoph went 3-for-3 to stake Virginia to a lead before Simpson's TD sealed the deal.
Virginia is now 7-2 against North Carolina under Groh and 10-1 in October under Groh since 2007. Perfect storm? Maybe. But the calendar doesn't turn from October until four more games are played. November largely has been a different story (13-17, including 0-4 last year, under Groh), so UVA better get fat while it can.
Continue reading this post...
As noted in our opening post, one of the things we're looking for here at the 7even Win Society is intelligent discussion of UVA sports. Judging from the Fourth Estate's coverage of Saturday's debacle against William & Mary, we're still looking. A sampling (and these are the highlights people):
I know its easy to Monday Morning Quarterback the media (although it shouldn't be this easy). Its also too easy to simply write a "Fire Groh" Post. I won't rant too much about a game many of us are trying to simply eject from our consciousness as quickly as possible. And really, there's not much to analyze - a team that had a lot more talent was outplayed in pretty much every aspect of the game by a team from a lower division - so maybe I'm being too hard on the media. But ...
- As the old football saying goes, if you have two quarterbacks, you really have none. If you have three quarterbacks, well, you have a coach with ADD. Don't tell me it was Gregg Brandon's idea to rotate three different kids at QB in his first game as OC. And if it was, someone (i.e. the head coach) should have stopped him from doing it.
- Vic Hall’s opening drive 34-yard touchdown scamper was breathtaking, but he appears to be a one-trick pony. Or at the very least the coaches think he is. He threw all of five passes at QB. If you don’t trust him to throw, Hall is the NFL version of a Wildcat QB. A nice change of pace, but not a QB. Stop pretending he is.
- But Hall wasn’t doing that badly, which made the switch to Sewell after all of three drives such a head-scratcher. The football gods immediately punished UVA for the change with a fumbled snap on Sewell’s first play. After that, it was vintage Sewell – a strike between coverage to Chris Byrd. Two plays later, he sailed a throw three feet over Byrd’s head to the other team. Get used to it folks. Sewell is the Hoos best chance at QB. But he is what he is – flashes of brilliance followed closely by complete exasperation.
- We’ll just pretend the desperation switch to Marc Verica in the fourth quarter didn’t happen, shall we? And hope it doesn’t happen again. I’m sure he’s a nice guy, but Verica should have joined the ranks Virginia QBs that never got in a game. The fact that he plays (and has even started games) is horrifying for a program that hopes to compete for conference titles.
- Mikell Simpson carried the ball five times for 32 yards, and caught six passes for 28 yards. I know a lot of those running yards were on one play late in the first half, but Simpson’s probably their best offensive player. Let’s get him the ball, not throw to receivers you or I couldn't pick out of a lineup.
- Is it possible – just possible – that they’re asking Hall to do too much? Not only does Hall have to learn a new offense, learn a new position, and split out wide at receiver every once in a while, but he also needs to return punts? Why exactly? Its hard to get mad at the kid when he’s asked to do that much, and then fumbles a punt. But very easy to get mad at the coaching staff that asks him to do it.
- The defense wasn’t as bad as the score indicated. It wasn’t good, mind you, against a 1-AA opponent, but not that bad. Redshirt freshman Steve Greer (10 tackles) used to be Jon Copper’s understudy; looks more like a clone to me. And a year after returning from academic suspension, Chris Cook looks like the best corner on the roster (yes, I’m looking at you Ras-I Dowling).
- Finally, another old football saying (one I happen to believe in) is that players take on the personality of their head coach. Saturday's performance did not reflect well on the head coach. The program's history under Groh says they will rebound, of course, but we're not sure that matters. We suspect there will be ruminations all week about Groh's job status on one side, and attempts to rally the troops on the other. Far from the discussion we thought we'd be having this week, huh? Doesn't that tell you everything you need to know?
Continue reading this post...
