On the day Virginia honored Anthony Poindexter, one of my favorite UVA players of all-time and a guy who literally gave his left knee to the program, Virginia looked a lot like it did when #3 played for them. Good thing they decided to honor Dex this month instead of last since the October Cavaliers look like a completely different animal than the September version.
What's different?
- They Settled on a Quarterback, Not Three: A month after heading into the season opener planning to play all three quarterbacks, someone had the sense to move Vic Hall off the QB spot (it was Hall himself), and Marc Verica did play Saturday, but it was (more appropriately) in mop-up duty. As we've said before, Sewell has his flaws, but he gives this team its best chance to win games. Now at least he has a chance to win them, not 1/3 of a chance.
- They Gave Him the Damn Ball, and Now They're Winning: Before leaving the game with an injury, Mikell Simpson had touched the ball 19 times. Four of those touches ended with touchdowns. For two straight weeks, Virginia has rode its best player (#5 touched the ball 24 times at UNC) instead of treating him like a support player (13 carries in the first two games). Get well soon Mikell.
- Could It Be As Simple As Line Splits? Virginia hasn't scrapped the spread. They're still running out of the shotgun with 4 wides almost every down. But starting with a close loss at S. Miss., Al Groh closed down the wide splits usually associated with the spread. Whether it has helped protection, or simply made his o-linemen more comfortable, Virginia has been a different offense ever since.
- Better Defense, More Specifically Better Pass Rush: Indiana QB Ben Chappell looked miserable all day. Virginia, most notably LB Cam Johnson, lived in the Hoosier backfield. And it looked like a replay of what the Hoos did to TJ Yates a week before. Its nice that Virginia has been able to give opponents a taste of the medicine they were getting last month, when Sewell, et al. were often running for their lives.
- Ras-I Dowling: The Hoos' sole preseason all-ACC selection seemed a step slow early, and was toasted for long touchdowns against William & Mary and TCU. He was the best player on the field Saturday, forcing a fumble on Indiana's opening drive and picking off a pass in the second quarter. Both TOs led to Cavalier touchdowns. If Ras-I continues to play as he has the last two weeks, paired with Chris Cook and a better than expected safety corps, the Virginia secondary should be a real strength the rest of the way.
- The Schedule Eased Up, But Not for Long: When you looked the schedule coming into the season, September didn't look that bad. Well, William & Mary is still a a 1-AA school, but they are 5-1. No one's beaten TCU yet, including Clemson. And Southern Miss has lost three straight since their comeback win against the Hoos, but all of those losses were on the road (makes scheduling a game at Hattiesburg seem even less sensible, if that were possible). Since then, the Hoos have gotten well against an offensively-challenged North Carolina team that they always beat, and an Indiana team that hasn't won since completing the soft portion of their non-conference schedule (E. Kentucky, W. Michigan, and Akron) and looked like they had no interest in being in C'ville Saturday. Unfortunately, the schedule tilts up from here. Next week, the Hoos visit College Park (bring your flame retardant clothing) where its always been tough for them to win, and they may have to do it without Terp-killer Mikell Simpson. And then a ranked Georgia Tech team comes calling looking for revenge for last season's upset loss in Atlanta.
But hey, things are looking up at least for now, even if the Virginia fan base has tuned out (a new post-renovation record low of 45,371 attended the IU game, on homecoming weekend no less). The Hoos have a chance Saturday at College Park to really get their attention back.
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Since its inception in 1999, the Big Ten has never won the ACC-BigTen Challenge. The amusing part? The leagues actually agreed to swap the names every other year, so its the Big Ten-ACC Challenge this and every other year. Um, don't you have to win the challenge to get that privilege? Shouldn't they just change it to the ACC - Big Ten Challenge until further notice? Yet somehow the Big Ten always seems to get equal or more bids to the Big Dance than the ACC.
But that's a rant for another day (although you can tell where my mind is at, October or not). No, Virginia and Indiana play this weekend in football, where the Big Ten should have the advantage, right? Well, not necessarily. The Big Ten's failures (most notably Ohio State's) on the country's biggest stage is well documented, but it goes deeper than that. So how do the conferences stack up against each other on the gridiron?
We decided to look into it. The two conferences have not played yet this season, and only sparsely in the last three years. There's last year's academic bowl - Northwestern 24, Duke 20 (I've yet to confirm the rumor that the winner was decided through a game of Trivial Pursuit). And then there's the 2007 Champs Sports Bowl - Boston College 24, Michigan State 21. So two games over three years, and a split at that. Not much help.
How about non-conference games in general? Thankfully, a Missouri blog - tigerboard.com - has done some great analysis on this, so I don't have to. Not surprisingly from UVA's perspective since they're 0-3 themselves, the ACC has struggled in out of conference games this season. Tigerboard's analysis is only current thru 9/24 (i.e. doesn't count the past two weekend's games). But even if you add those more recent games in, the ACC is 12-11 against FBS teams; the Big Ten is 19-9. Much better for the Big Ten.
However, if you narrow it down to games against other BCS conference teams, the ACC and Big Ten are an identical 6-7 (including games against Notre Dame, of which the Big Ten has three). So it appears that the Big Ten has been fattening up on non-BCS opponents. To be sure, the Big Ten should get some credit for actually beating them - Virginia certainly hasn't - but it does undercut the Big Ten's reputation as a superior football conference.
It gets even shakier for the Big Ten if you look at the last decade. The Big Ten simply does not have the non-conference advantage over the ACC you'd think it would as a supposedly powerhouse football conference. In fact, it has none at all. Since 2000 (for this, I did not adjust tigerboard's numbers to add the last two weekend's games), the ACC is a mediocre 99-108, a .478 winning percentage, against BCS conference opponents. But the Big Ten is actually worse: 84-93, a .475 clip. Now, of course, just as this season's numbers don't take into account strength of opponent, neither do the last decade's numbers. But its a disparity you don't expect between what's known as a football conference and one that's known, even on this blog, as a basketball one.
Of course, nobody thinks of Indiana as being one of the Big Ten's football powers anyway. But when you look at those numbers, the fact that Indiana is 3-2 (wins against W. Ky., E. Mich., and Akron), or that the Hoosiers gamely fell, 36-33, at then-ranked Michigan, doesn't seem to mean a whole lot. That's because it appears, just as in basketball, that the Big Ten is trading on an unwarranted reputation. So Big Ten opponent or not, this is a game Virginia can, and at home probably should, win Saturday.
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