Actually, that's three times in four years. Not usually good for one's job security. Has anyone thought about replacing the coach?
Game of inches was a popular media theme -- here and here for example. Although let's not be melodramatic about it, fellas (and I don't mean to pick on these two particular stories -- it was a common refrain from pretty much every media outlet covering the game). Virginia's bowl hopes were extinguished well before Jameel Sewell came up inches short at the BC 12 on fourth down. You see this team winning at Clemson and against Virignia Tech? Yeah, me neither.
Tip of the cap nonetheless to Sewell, who played hurt in the absence of Marc Verica. As we've said in this space before, Sewell has his flaws, but he's always given Virginia its best chance to win. He did so again on Saturday.
And the defense, once again, almost made another impotent offensive showing stand up. Chris Cook got Virginia on the board with an int return for TD to tie the game, and then the D stopped the Eagles three and out to set up a FG that briefly gave the Hoos a 10-7 lead. And last week we asked who would stand out as the Cavs played out the string. LB Billy Shautz raised his hand, registering his first career sack as well as a tackle for loss.
Nonetheless, that defense succumbed in much the same way it has a number of times this season - when a team committed to running it down their throats, the Hoos couldn't stop them. BC marched 70 yards in 12 plays to start the fourth quarter. 10 of the Eagles' 12 plays on that decisive drive were runs, culminating in a gutsy fourth and goal run that just snuck the ball over the line (yes, by inches, we get it).
In any event, the inches don't matter anymore to this group, except to figure out how many inches outside the hole a putt might be sometime in December. It will be interesting to see who else, like Shautz, stands up and makes himself noticed as the team plays out the string.
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What in the world has happened? Only a month ago, this thing was all sorted out – a horrific 0-3 start, including an embarrassing loss to William and Mary, meant had officially hit rock bottom. All signs pointed to Groh’s dismissal as a foregone conclusion, and after being on the proverbial “hot season” for several seasons, it finally seemed like a true consensus had been reached regarding the embattled coach. The only question remaining was whether or not he would be released during the bye week or if Littlepage and company might consider an “exit” plan.
Yet a road win last Saturday over Maryland extended the Cavs winning streak to three, got them to .500 on the season, and as expected, caught the attention of some national media and even elicited some minor praise. While entertaining and good for news stories, Groh’s trademark as an October turnaround specialist proves confounding to most Virginia fans and downright problematic to those who firmly believe “Groh-must-go.” As it stands, the rebound certainly complicates the situation, and a matter that seemed resolved just three games ago once again provokes far more questions and “what-ifs” than answers.
So, the Yellow Jackets come to town tomorrow in what has turned out to be a surprise mid-season ACC showdown in C’ville, yet, no matter the outcome, the game will likely do little to help clarify things for Virginia fans. A loss and clearly things get very dicey, yet not entirely hopeless, and with this crew, who knows how the rest of the season will play out. On the other hand, a Cavalier upset probably only makes the Duke game that much more nerve-wracking. Long-time Wahoo fans have come to almost expect having their hearts stomped on just when things start to look promising, and a flop against Duke at home seems so fitting to follow an upset-win over Ga Tech. Even if UVa finishes October at 5-3, becoming bowl eligible is still no sure bet.
Ultimately, anything after tomorrow’s game is neither here nor there, and as players and coaches alike always take it “one game at a time,” so too should Cav fans. The Ramblin’ Wreck visits tomorrow and recent history favors the Hoos. References to Ga. Tech’s current winless streak in Scott Stadium abound, and for those who follow the Cavaliers, it would not come as a complete shock if Virginia pulls off the upset. These two squads seem to have a knack for making sure the favored team suffers a disappointing and often season-altering defeat. If the Cavaliers want to continue the trend, the overwhelming consensus is that they must find a way to stop Tech’s high-powered running game.
Averaging over 281 yards per game, Ga Tech ranks second in the country in rushing and their 417 yards of total offense per contest is good for second in the ACC. Quarterback Josh Nesbitt orchestrates the Yellow Jackets’ triple-option, and in fact, the junior leads the team with 625 rushing yards on the season – good enough for 34th in the country no less. Reigning ACC offensive player of the year Jonathan Dwyer follows closely behind Nesbitt with 593 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns on the season. How heavily do the Jackets rely on these two guys and their ground attack? Put it this way, last week against the Hokies, Ga Tech ran the ball 63 times (43 of which were either Dwyer or Nesbitt) and the two accounted for 204 of the team’s 309 rushing yards on the afternoon. For the season, Nesbitt has only 80 pass attempts, and last week against Va Tech he was a mere 1-7 for 51 yards. On the rare occasion they do go to the air, look for Demarius Thomas to be the prime target as he leads the team with 27 catches for 671 yards and 4 touchdowns on the year.
While every team facing the Ramblin’ Wreck knows what to expect, few have been able to slow them down. For the Hoos to control the Yellow Jackets' running attack, Hootie of the Daily Progress points to the importance of Virginia maintaining their defensive assignments while Michael Phillips of the RTD stresses being patient defensively. Virginia’s defense has proven decent most of the season and has especially come on strong during the three-game winning streak. The Cavs enter the contest ranked 21st nationally while only allowing 293 yards of total offense per game. Virginia will have to go without defensive end Matt Conrath, and he plays a key role in a unit that has fared relatively well against the run (ranking 59th nationally). Against Maryland the Hoos gave up less than 4 yards per carry (Va Tech surrendered almost 5 yards a carry to the Yellow Jackets last week). Forcing three turnovers was a key contributing factor in last year’s upset victory and this is one area that could likely play a big role in tomorrow’s contest – takeaways are certainly one way to slow Ga Tech’s ground attack, keep their offense off the field, and disrupt their ball control. After digging themselves a deep whole early in the season, Virginia is now back on the plus side in turnover margin and ranks 37th nationally
Of course, UVa's offense could do their part in helping slow the Ramblin' Wreck attack by sustaining long drives and putting plenty of points on the board. Sewell is probable for Saturday's contest and Mikell Simpson is expected to play which is good news for the Cavalier offense. Ga Tech has been allowing opposing offenses to move the ball well against them. The Yellow Jackets surrender almost 378 yards per game and give up 26 points per outing, so Virginia should be able to move the ball and generate some ball control of their own.
Call it Virginia’s version of Oktoberfest, chalk it up as yet another shining example of the “Octgrohber” effect, or simply blame it on Groh continuing to live up to his media nickname of “Mr. October,” but whatever the reason, Virginia's turnaround has certainly made things interesting. The players call him “Jeezy,” for Young Jeezy, and while there seems to be no obvious connection between Groh and the hip-hop artist, Young Jeezy’s single titled “Crazy World” off his 2008 album The Recession seems to aptly sum up the season thus far. Hoo knows, if history continues to repeat itself, things might just get even more crazy after Saturday.
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For the second time in three weeks, Al Groh just made sure his offense didn't lose the game, and put the game in his defense's hands. Nate Collins made good on that gameplan in a muddy slogfest at College Park. Twerps fans might say the better team lost, but Maryland wasn't better in the stat that often determines games (turnover margin was 4-1), and where it matters most: on the scoreboard.
Some observations:
- It appeared that, like last week, it might be a costly win for the Hoos. QB Jameel Sewell looked like he twisted his knee pretty good, but said he was fine after the game. Matt Conrath might be a different story, but no update on either just yet.
- After Collins' heroics late in the third quarter, QB Marc Verica threw one more pass the rest of the game. I couldn't have been happier with the play-calling. Like Groh's decision to punt late in the first half from the Terps' 35, Groh was simply playing the hand he's been dealt (or more appropriately, the hand he's dealt himself as a recruiter).
- In the absence of Mikell Simpson, Rashawn Jackson was pretty good. I wouldn't call him magnificent, as Groh did (I'd expect that a guy as big as Jackson would run over people more, but I'm nitpicking). But he was rugged when he needed to be, specifically when his number was called ten straight times in the fourth quarter to salt the game away.
- Just as important to the Hoos' offense was QB, turned WR, sometimes CB, and occasional PR Vic Hall, who has developed into his roomate's favorite target at wideout. Hall led the Hoos with 5 catches for 53 yards, and Sewell targeted #4 whenever the Hoos needed a play.
- The Turtles outgained the Hoos 284-201 and had 17 first downs to Virginia's 9. But QB Chris Turner looked downright awful in the elements. So it was a little puzzling to me why the Terps didn't run more (their usual M.O. notwithstanding). I guess when your RBs put the ball on the ground as much as they do, that'll change your play-calling, which was run-dominant early. Still, it makes no sense that Maryland threw more than they ran when they were running at four yards a clip in a mosh pit. Virginia, meanwhile, had a much more sensible 38 run-26 pass split.
- Virginia didn't often get to Turner (only one sack), but harassed him all day, and the secondary was sound. On top of his game-winning TD, Collins had the team's only sack, two tackles for loss, and led the Hoos with nine tackles. Not bad, eh?
- Finally, it was nice to see that coaching head-scratchers aren't limited to the Cavalier sideline. With 1:54 on the clock and one timeout left, Maryland Coach Ralph Friedgen actually ran his punt team onto the field on fourth down in a 13-9 game. Granted it was 4th & 18 from their own two, but if you punt, you're essentially conceding defeat in a 4-point game. Virginia saved him by calling timeout (hard to blame them -- I'm sure they were just as confused as I was by the call), at which point Fridge thought better of it and sent his offense back on the field. Amazes me that head coaches, epsecially those who don't call plays anymore like Fridge, can't seamlessly handle these situations. But I guess that's why Maryland is 2-5.
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On the day Virginia honored Anthony Poindexter, one of my favorite UVA players of all-time and a guy who literally gave his left knee to the program, Virginia looked a lot like it did when #3 played for them. Good thing they decided to honor Dex this month instead of last since the October Cavaliers look like a completely different animal than the September version.
What's different?
- They Settled on a Quarterback, Not Three: A month after heading into the season opener planning to play all three quarterbacks, someone had the sense to move Vic Hall off the QB spot (it was Hall himself), and Marc Verica did play Saturday, but it was (more appropriately) in mop-up duty. As we've said before, Sewell has his flaws, but he gives this team its best chance to win games. Now at least he has a chance to win them, not 1/3 of a chance.
- They Gave Him the Damn Ball, and Now They're Winning: Before leaving the game with an injury, Mikell Simpson had touched the ball 19 times. Four of those touches ended with touchdowns. For two straight weeks, Virginia has rode its best player (#5 touched the ball 24 times at UNC) instead of treating him like a support player (13 carries in the first two games). Get well soon Mikell.
- Could It Be As Simple As Line Splits? Virginia hasn't scrapped the spread. They're still running out of the shotgun with 4 wides almost every down. But starting with a close loss at S. Miss., Al Groh closed down the wide splits usually associated with the spread. Whether it has helped protection, or simply made his o-linemen more comfortable, Virginia has been a different offense ever since.
- Better Defense, More Specifically Better Pass Rush: Indiana QB Ben Chappell looked miserable all day. Virginia, most notably LB Cam Johnson, lived in the Hoosier backfield. And it looked like a replay of what the Hoos did to TJ Yates a week before. Its nice that Virginia has been able to give opponents a taste of the medicine they were getting last month, when Sewell, et al. were often running for their lives.
- Ras-I Dowling: The Hoos' sole preseason all-ACC selection seemed a step slow early, and was toasted for long touchdowns against William & Mary and TCU. He was the best player on the field Saturday, forcing a fumble on Indiana's opening drive and picking off a pass in the second quarter. Both TOs led to Cavalier touchdowns. If Ras-I continues to play as he has the last two weeks, paired with Chris Cook and a better than expected safety corps, the Virginia secondary should be a real strength the rest of the way.
- The Schedule Eased Up, But Not for Long: When you looked the schedule coming into the season, September didn't look that bad. Well, William & Mary is still a a 1-AA school, but they are 5-1. No one's beaten TCU yet, including Clemson. And Southern Miss has lost three straight since their comeback win against the Hoos, but all of those losses were on the road (makes scheduling a game at Hattiesburg seem even less sensible, if that were possible). Since then, the Hoos have gotten well against an offensively-challenged North Carolina team that they always beat, and an Indiana team that hasn't won since completing the soft portion of their non-conference schedule (E. Kentucky, W. Michigan, and Akron) and looked like they had no interest in being in C'ville Saturday. Unfortunately, the schedule tilts up from here. Next week, the Hoos visit College Park (bring your flame retardant clothing) where its always been tough for them to win, and they may have to do it without Terp-killer Mikell Simpson. And then a ranked Georgia Tech team comes calling looking for revenge for last season's upset loss in Atlanta.
But hey, things are looking up at least for now, even if the Virginia fan base has tuned out (a new post-renovation record low of 45,371 attended the IU game, on homecoming weekend no less). The Hoos have a chance Saturday at College Park to really get their attention back.
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Amidst all the talk of the new offense, the fact that the defense has uncharacteristically struggled has been lost in the conversation. Not Saturday. They could have played eight quarters, and the Heels still wouldn't have crossed the goal line. Some thoughts on Virginia's first win of the season:
- LB Steve Greer set the tone on the opening drive with two tackles for loss. Matt Conrath (3 batted balls) continued the momentum. Nate Collins finished the job with a hit on T.J. Yates that led to a Chase Minnifield interception, setting up the game-clinching TD.
- If he's going down, Al Groh is going to go down his way. From his offensive adjustments two weeks ago to his defensive game plan against UNC, Al Groh is putting his stamp on this team. Even on offense, the game was called to avoid mistakes under the assumption that UNC couldn't score without help. They couldn't.
- I'll admit I was a little nervous about how Virignia would respond after literally getting run over in back to back weeks against TCU and S. Miss. Then I saw John Shoop in the coach's box calling UNC's plays and immediately felt better.
- As we've said in this space before, Mikell Simpson is the best offensive player on the team, and UVA should be getting him the ball more. Inspired by watching 2007 game film Friday night, Simpson WAS the offense on Saturday, with 20 carries for 102 yards and a TD, and a team-leading four catches for 45 yards. That wasn't so hard, was it?
- Less than a month after Virginia played three QBs in the season opener, its now exclusively Jameel Sewell's show. Marc Verica made a brief appearance, but only because Sewell was nursing a hand injury at the time. And Vic Hall took himself out of the QB picture with an act of selflessness. Sewell is flawed - he makes bad decisions from time to time, sails throws on an almost regular basis, and doesn't always seem to see the field particularly well - but he gives Virginia its best chance to win. If Sewell can stick to the script - only 169 total yards but ZERO turnovers on Saturday - Virginia will at least be competitive the rest of the way.
- Jared Green isn't a star but he's developing a nice little niche as 3rd down receiver. Only two catches, but both moved the sticks on 3rd down.
- Tip of the cap to K Robert Randolph. Teams often don't notice the kicker unless he's missing kicks, so we should recogize them when they do the job. Randoph went 3-for-3 to stake Virginia to a lead before Simpson's TD sealed the deal.
Virginia is now 7-2 against North Carolina under Groh and 10-1 in October under Groh since 2007. Perfect storm? Maybe. But the calendar doesn't turn from October until four more games are played. November largely has been a different story (13-17, including 0-4 last year, under Groh), so UVA better get fat while it can.
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It wasn't unwatchable this week (well, unless you don't get College Sports TV, one of the only networks to be offered in less households than ESPN U Don't Get It). For those of you who could watch, you were treated to non-stop cliches from Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila's younger brother Akbar, who was "analyzing" the game for CSTV. O where, o where have you gone, Mac McDonald.
Some thoughts on the game:
- Al Groh attempted to take control of his own fate this week, ditching parts of the spread while reinstalling more traditional pro sets. The result was 268 first half yards, an offense that outgained USM for the game, and 25 first downs, six more than the Hoos had in their first two games combined.
- But Virginia did appear to return to more spread-like playcalling in the 2nd half, particularly in the way they ran the football, to their detriment. Notably, Cavalier RBs had 13 carries to Sewell's nine in the first half. Relying more on RB runs also set up play action, including a 69-yard TD bomb to Tim Smith in the first half. But after a handful of Sewell draws led to a late touchdown in the first half, the Hoos seemed to fall in love with the QB run, to the tune of 14 second half carries for Sewell against only seven RB carries. It was effective at times (Sewell did finish with 79 rushing yards), but the proof is in the pudding - 27 first-half points to 7 in the second.
- Hootie aptly noted last week that the Hoos' offensive problems start in the trenches. The o-line was better against USM, which Hootie attributed to ditching the wider splits usually associated with the spread.
- The D-line was not. When Damion Fletcher decided to serve notice that he was the best player on the field, the Cavs' D did little to stop him. The senior back, who will play on Sundays, finished with 26 carries for 132 yards, but it was his counterpart in the wildcat formation, Tory Harrison, who broke the Cavs' back with a 57-yard touchdown run that proved to be the decisive score.
- The Hoos were helped by some sloppy play by the Golden Eagles early in the game. A pair of fumbles in their own end, which were more given away than forced, led to a pair of UVA FGs. Unfortunately, the final result would probably have been different if Virginia finished those drives off turnovers with TDs instead of stalling inside the USM 20 and settling for FGs.
- Welcome back to relevance Jared Green. Darrell's son had 5 catches for 30 yards. Four of those catches resulted in first downs.
- Chris Cook missed the contest with a groin injury. And in what is becoming a familar refrain, Mikell Simpson also missed the game with an injury, this time with a bruised shin.
- Finally, the last two times Virginia had gone 0-2 to start a season, the Cavs won their third game en route to a bowl game berth. In Groh's second season in 2002, the Cavs lost their first two to Colorado State and Florida State, but rebounded to finish 9-5. The last time before that Virginia lost its first two was 1987, when George Welsh led the Hoos to an 8-4 mark after dropping a pair to Georgia and Maryland. Now that the Cavs have broken that trend, its probably time to settle in for a long season ... and ask when basketball season starts.
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For the eternal optimists among us, Saturday was yet another opportunity for an Al Groh-coached team to rebound from a jarring early season loss. TCU was having none of it. Some thoughts:
- QB Jameel Sewell will undoubtedly incur the wrath of most Virginia fans for the loss, but especially those who went to the game saw an O-line that didn't block (8 sacks) and receivers that got ZERO separation (2 catches for 9 yards before a pair of purely cosmetic TD catches late in the game against the Frogs' second-string D). For those of you pining for Verica, he wouldn't have done much better against the rush Jerry Hughes & Co. were bringing. At least Sewell could run for his life (21 carries for 35 net yards rushing).
- From Last Week's Head-Scratcher Dept.: One week after going with 3 QBs, and worse yet admitting that he planned to do so, Groh stuck with 1 signal-caller this week. If it was such a good idea last week, why do a 180 the following week? [Answer: it was a bad idea last week.]
- From This Week's Head Scratcher Dept.: For those who noticed that the Hoos were letting the play clock run all the way down before snapping the ball, it was by design, said Groh, to keep down TCU's usual advantage in time of possession. Coach, you win the time of possession battle by successfully running the ball and converting third downs, and stopping your opponent from doing the same, not by manufacturing that advantage. Its not like the Hoos were playing the 2007 Patriots, and thus trying to keep them off the field. I apologize to those who overheard me screaming at the radio during that answer in the post-game presser.
- The result of the HC's gimmick to try to win the time of possession battle? TCU 34:49, Virginia 25:11. Better luck next time, Coach. Maybe the Hoos can ensure no worse than a tie in the turnover battle next week by taking a knee on every offensive play.
- The defense was helped out early by a shaky opening game start by TCU QB Andy Dalton. But when the Frogs committed to just running the ball late in the first half, they moved it at will and took a 14-0 lead into the locker room. Not a good sign with run at will teams like Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech still on the schedule.
- Dalton was much sharper to open the second half. Ras-I Dowling has the burn marks to prove it.
- Mike London Watch: I can't help those who may be pining for the football program's version of Tubby Smith, but a pretty good coach is just down I-64 at the University of Richmond and did a pretty good job when he was here as the DC in C'ville. A week after slaying their own ACC opponent (a 24-16 win at Duke), last year's FCS champions and this year's No. 1 FCS-ranked team won at Delaware in dramatic fashion.
- Finally, at some point, they may have to fire Groh for the sake of the kids busting their butt to win games. It was hard to watch the majority of Virginia fans booing as the Cavaliers ran into the tunnel after a difficult first half. I know
most of them at least they were booing the coach, not the team, but tell that to a bunch of 18-22 year olds. Cavalier fans are also talking with their wallet. Saturday's official attendance of 48,366 was the lowest total since the latest renovation to Scott Stadium in 2000.
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As noted in our opening post, one of the things we're looking for here at the 7even Win Society is intelligent discussion of UVA sports. Judging from the Fourth Estate's coverage of Saturday's debacle against William & Mary, we're still looking. A sampling (and these are the highlights people):
I know its easy to Monday Morning Quarterback the media (although it shouldn't be this easy). Its also too easy to simply write a "Fire Groh" Post. I won't rant too much about a game many of us are trying to simply eject from our consciousness as quickly as possible. And really, there's not much to analyze - a team that had a lot more talent was outplayed in pretty much every aspect of the game by a team from a lower division - so maybe I'm being too hard on the media. But ...
- As the old football saying goes, if you have two quarterbacks, you really have none. If you have three quarterbacks, well, you have a coach with ADD. Don't tell me it was Gregg Brandon's idea to rotate three different kids at QB in his first game as OC. And if it was, someone (i.e. the head coach) should have stopped him from doing it.
- Vic Hall’s opening drive 34-yard touchdown scamper was breathtaking, but he appears to be a one-trick pony. Or at the very least the coaches think he is. He threw all of five passes at QB. If you don’t trust him to throw, Hall is the NFL version of a Wildcat QB. A nice change of pace, but not a QB. Stop pretending he is.
- But Hall wasn’t doing that badly, which made the switch to Sewell after all of three drives such a head-scratcher. The football gods immediately punished UVA for the change with a fumbled snap on Sewell’s first play. After that, it was vintage Sewell – a strike between coverage to Chris Byrd. Two plays later, he sailed a throw three feet over Byrd’s head to the other team. Get used to it folks. Sewell is the Hoos best chance at QB. But he is what he is – flashes of brilliance followed closely by complete exasperation.
- We’ll just pretend the desperation switch to Marc Verica in the fourth quarter didn’t happen, shall we? And hope it doesn’t happen again. I’m sure he’s a nice guy, but Verica should have joined the ranks Virginia QBs that never got in a game. The fact that he plays (and has even started games) is horrifying for a program that hopes to compete for conference titles.
- Mikell Simpson carried the ball five times for 32 yards, and caught six passes for 28 yards. I know a lot of those running yards were on one play late in the first half, but Simpson’s probably their best offensive player. Let’s get him the ball, not throw to receivers you or I couldn't pick out of a lineup.
- Is it possible – just possible – that they’re asking Hall to do too much? Not only does Hall have to learn a new offense, learn a new position, and split out wide at receiver every once in a while, but he also needs to return punts? Why exactly? Its hard to get mad at the kid when he’s asked to do that much, and then fumbles a punt. But very easy to get mad at the coaching staff that asks him to do it.
- The defense wasn’t as bad as the score indicated. It wasn’t good, mind you, against a 1-AA opponent, but not that bad. Redshirt freshman Steve Greer (10 tackles) used to be Jon Copper’s understudy; looks more like a clone to me. And a year after returning from academic suspension, Chris Cook looks like the best corner on the roster (yes, I’m looking at you Ras-I Dowling).
- Finally, another old football saying (one I happen to believe in) is that players take on the personality of their head coach. Saturday's performance did not reflect well on the head coach. The program's history under Groh says they will rebound, of course, but we're not sure that matters. We suspect there will be ruminations all week about Groh's job status on one side, and attempts to rally the troops on the other. Far from the discussion we thought we'd be having this week, huh? Doesn't that tell you everything you need to know?
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