On the Long and Winding Road to An Inevitable Coaching Change

For the eternal optimists among us, Saturday was yet another opportunity for an Al Groh-coached team to rebound from a jarring early season loss.  TCU was having none of it.  Some thoughts:

• QB Jameel Sewell will undoubtedly incur the wrath of most Virginia fans for the loss, but especially those who went to the game saw an O-line that didn't block (8 sacks) and receivers that got ZERO separation (2 catches for 9 yards before a pair of purely cosmetic TD catches late in the game against the Frogs' second-string D).  For those of you pining for Verica, he wouldn't have done much better against the rush Jerry Hughes & Co. were bringing.  At least Sewell could run for his life (21 carries for 35 net yards rushing).
• From Last Week's Head-Scratcher Dept.: One week after going with 3 QBs, and worse yet admitting that he planned to do so, Groh stuck with 1 signal-caller this week.  If it was such a good idea last week, why do a 180 the following week?  [Answer: it was a bad idea last week.] 
• From This Week's Head Scratcher Dept.: For those who noticed that the Hoos were letting the play clock run all the way down before snapping the ball, it was by design, said Groh, to keep down TCU's usual advantage in time of possession.  Coach, you win the time of possession battle by successfully running the ball and converting third downs, and stopping your opponent from doing the same, not by manufacturing that advantage.  Its not like the Hoos were playing the 2007 Patriots, and thus trying to keep them off the field.  I apologize to those who overheard me screaming at the radio during that answer in the post-game presser.
• The result of the HC's gimmick to try to win the time of possession battle?  TCU 34:49, Virginia 25:11.  Better luck next time, Coach.  Maybe the Hoos can ensure no worse than a tie in the turnover battle next week by taking a knee on every offensive play.  
• The defense was helped out early by a shaky opening game start by TCU QB Andy Dalton.  But when the Frogs committed to just running the ball late in the first half, they moved it at will and took a 14-0 lead into the locker room.  Not a good sign with run at will teams like Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech still on the schedule.
• Dalton was much sharper to open the second half.  Ras-I Dowling has the burn marks to prove it. 
• Mike London Watch: I can't help those who may be pining for the football program's version of Tubby Smith, but a pretty good coach is just down I-64 at the University of Richmond and did a pretty good job when he was here as the DC in C'ville.  A week after slaying their own ACC opponent (a 24-16 win at Duke), last year's FCS champions and this year's No. 1 FCS-ranked team won at Delaware in dramatic fashion.      
• Finally, at some point, they may have to fire Groh for the sake of the kids busting their butt to win games. It was hard to watch the majority of Virginia fans booing as the Cavaliers ran into the tunnel after a difficult first half.  I know most of them at least they were booing the coach, not the team, but tell that to a bunch of 18-22 year olds.  Cavalier fans are also talking with their wallet.  Saturday's official attendance of 48,366 was the lowest total since the latest renovation to Scott Stadium in 2000. 

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Know Your Enemy: The TCU Horned Frogs

Ugly SOB, isn't he? 

Since we have some idea what to dread expect from U.Va., time to turn to Virginia's opponent for the week: the TCU Horned Frogs.

• TCU finished 7th in the final AP poll a year ago after an 11-2 record out of the Mountain West Conference and a victory over previously unbeaten Boise State in the Poinsetta Bowl. 
• The Horned Frogs have yet to play a game this season, but their conference is looking pretty good so far after BYU’s upset of No. 3 Oklahoma last weekend.  TCU didn’t fare nearly as well against the Sooners last season, falling 35-10 in their only foray into major conference land. The Horned Frogs are upping the ante this season, following their trip to Charlottesville with a visit to Death Valley on September 26.
• The Frogs are coached by Gary Patterson, who worked his way up the coaching ladder the old-fashioned way.  Did I mention he's pretty good?  TCU is 73-27 since he took over in 2000 (Al Groh is 56-44 in that same span).
• TCU's hallmark, especially last season, is defense.  The Frogs led the nation in team defense a year ago (217.8 ypg), the third time they have led the nation in that category under Patterson.  They gave up a paltry 11.3 points per game last season (and that's with giving up 35 to Oklahoma).     

• The unquestioned star of that defense is rush end Jerry Hughes.  Keep your eye out for #98.  He's a monster.  6-3, 257, and speed to burn.  May have been a first-round pick last year, but decided to return for his senior season.  He's still projected as a first round pick, and if you have ESPN Insider, his draft profile can be found here. 
• But Hughes may have less help this year, as the Horned Frogs must replace seven defensive starters, including a pair of stud LBs that led the team in tackles last season.  The Post thinks they'll be fine, but will have to learn a bit on the fly.  May be that the first game is the best time to catch them.
• On offense, TCU likes to run the ball.  They averaged 220 ypg on the ground, 11th best in the nation in 2008.  Their leading rusher - Sr. Joseph Turner - returns, but the Frogs tend to employ a RB by committee, so you'll probably see multiple ball carriers tomorrow.
• TCU is led at QB by third-year starter Andy Dalton. He's more of a game-manager type (he only threw 5 picks in '08).  Dalton can also run it; he had 432 yards rushing and 8 rushing TDs last season.  But he may throw more in '09 because his receivers should be pretty good this season, led by Jr. Jimmy Young.  #88 caught 64 passes for 1,012 last season. 
• As the USA Today notes, in light of Virginia's loss against W&M, Saturday's showdown with the Hoos is now almost a no-win situation for the Horned Frogs.  Kind of like playing S. Miss., right? 

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Around Virginia Football

Surfing the interweb, picking out the best UVA stories of the week for your reading pleasure:

• As the DP notes, the defense was OK. Should have been better against a 1-AA opponent. 
• Hootie also chimes in to add that TCU Head Coach Gary Patterson is saying all the right things about a possible Virginia rebound. I think he’s more interested in routing a BCS Conference school on national television, and wants to make sure he gets maximum return on such a win.
• Doug Doughty sings the praises of Steve Greer, perhaps the next stud Cavalier LB. 
• Also in LB news, Mike Phillips over at the RTD notes that Cam Johnson didn’t start, but played a ton. Expect the true sophomore to continue to play more, especially on passing downs to get after the opposing QB.
• For those of you looking for a 2007-style renaissance, Norm Wood at the Daily Press reminds us that team had 19 returning starters, not 11 like the 2009 team.
• Finally, Paul Montana at the Sabre aptly notes that TCU was great last season in TO margin and time of possession. In light of UVA's performance against W&M, that doesn’t bode well for Saturday.

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