NEXT!

You won't have to see this anymore.  AP Story here.  UVA statement here.   

The next Virginia Coach?

We'll have more on each of these and other candidates as the week (and the search) progresses. 

Continue reading this post...

Outmanned Again (This is Getting Old)

For the second time in three weeks, Virginia fought gamely for a half against a superiorly talented foe.  The Hoos pulled out all the stops -- a little Wildcat, a QB throwback, and even a gutsy and exhilarating go on the last play of the first half.  Unfortunately, Virginia didn't seem to have any tricks left for the second half, when things returned to form for Atlantic Division champ Clemson in a 34-21 result.

Some thoughts on the Cavs' eighth loss of the season, their most since 1986:

• The offense to open the game looked like it probably should have all season.  All thirteen of the Hoos' offensive plays in the first quarter were on the ground.  It didn't matter that the first drive ended in a fumble, or that the second ended in a punt.  The score after the first quarter was 7-7, and just as important the time of possession was 8-7 Virginia. 
• Like the Virginia Tech game last season when Vic Hall got the surprise start at QB, Virginia broke out a new toy with Mikell Simpson in the wildcat formation.  Groh was quoted as saying that they didn't just put that in this week; they just hadn't used it in a game.  Um, as many of us were thinking last season when they finally took the wraps off Hall, what took so long?
• The end of the half go for it was one of those no-no-no-yes! moments.  You have a chance to cut it to one score with a FG, and you're facing the ACC's best pass rush with 8 seconds left from the 23-yard line.  A short pass, which is all they had time for if they still wanted to preserve time for a FG, doesn't get you in the end zone, so why risk it?  Instead, Virginia calls a wheel route to Simpson, which if incomplete leaves the Cavs with no time for a FG.  But the play worked.  24-21 into halftime.  Gutsy, even if foolhardy, call.
• Unfortunately, that was the last play of Simpson's afternoon.  Without their star runner in the second half, Virginia gained only 40 more yards, and didn't score again.
• On the other side of the ball, there was only so much Virginia could do to slow down a clicking Clemson offense.  But UVA still held the Tigers under 400 yards for the first time in five games.  The Hoos actually kept star C.J. Spiller (19 carries, 60 yards) in relative check.  They had a little more trouble with speedy wideout Jacoby Ford, who had 6 catches for 106 yards and a TD.  
• The last time the Cavs lost eight games was 1986.  It will have to beat Tech to avoid its worst season since 1982.  Ouch.

Continue reading this post...

Countdown to November 30

As ACC COY noted earlier this season, 2009 has been a long and inevitable march towards Al Groh's firing.  This is as much AD Craig Littlepage's fault as it is Groh's.  But with the end of the football season mercilessly close, you should know that the death blow will likely come quickly, and soon. 

As ACC Sports Journal notes, November 30 is the annual date to exercise the rollover clause in Coach Groh's contract.  If the University isn't going to pick that up - and there's no one out there that thinks it will be picked up - conventional wisdom says that there's no reason to let an alum and, whatever you think of his coaching ability, a good man twist in the wind.  Jerry Radcliffe had a interesting piece about what went wrong for Al Groh.  Don't know that I agree with all of what Jerry writes, but he raises some interesting issues that any coaching candidate will have to consider.

Everyone's already starting with candidate lists - here and here for example.  Its a bit early for that, but with November 30 just ten days away, not that early.  Better than talking about the Clemson game, though, and Virginia's likely foray into the land of 3-8, something even the most pessimistic among us did not think possible when the season began. Continue reading this post...

Virginia Steamrolled ... Again.

It took a while for 16th-ranked Miami to find Virginia's soft underbelly -- its run defense -- but once it did, Miami didn't go away from it.  268 rushing yards later, the Canes broke open a close game at the half, and won going away, 52-17, over the Cavs. 

Some observations with the Hoos one loss away from bowl ineligibility:

• Tip of the cap to the Cavs' secondary.  When Miami characteristically opened the game pass-happy, Virginia's secondary of Dowling, Cook, Woods, and McLeod made a very good pass offense pay.  Dowling's int set up the Hoos' first score, and Heisman-hopeful Jacory Harris looked thoroughly frustrated at halftime. 
• Another tip of the cap to LB Cam Johnson, the most exciting young player in Virginia's stable.  The second year backer had two sacks, unfortunately the second of which changed the momentum of the game.  The call may have been technically correct -- the face mask penalty does include the "helmet opening," and an official can use replay to correct an "egregious" error.  I'm not sure the official's interpretation of either of those terms is correct, but even if they were, I'm not sure what Johnson is supposed to do when he comes clean, and the quarterback ducks into him, causing Johnson to grab what he could to bring an extraordinary athlete to the ground.  Keep going after 'em Cam. 
• While Miami was figuring out how to attack the Hoos' defense (apparently they don't review film or stats from previous games at the U untiul halftime), their talent still staked them to a first half lead.  That top-flight talent was on display first with TE Leonard Hankerson's 35-yard catch and run TD, and then PR Thearon Collier's 60-yard punt return.  Virignia looked like they had both plays hemmed in before that talent took over. 
• Virginia couldn't kick or cover kicks in the first half, but special teams coach Ron Prince clearly saw a hole to exploit in the Canes' punt-blocking scheme.  Terrence Fells-Danzer's block set up Virginia's first touchdown, and then Trey Womack's block led directly to Billy Schautz's return TD.   
• Virginia needed both, as their offense went back to its conservative roots with Marc Verica running the offense.  The Hoos ran the ball effectively, but were awful on third down (2-for-12 for the game) and thus unable to sustain drives. 
• Verica was a brutal 11-29 for 75 yards passing.  If Sewell wasn't healthy, which wasn't reported late in the week but was apparently known by the coaching staff since the Duke game, someone needs to explain to me why Vic Hall too ZERO snaps at QB, as was reported by the TV crew doing the game.  They could have used some of his escapability against that speedy Miami defense.
• Finally, Al Groh produced his second quote in the last week to explain away his team's performace with a lack of talent.  Earlier in the week, Groh was quoted as saying that you can't force an identity without the skills to match it.  After the Miami game, explaining why Wake Forest racked up 515 yards of offense against Miami's porous D while Virginia mustered little, Groh said, "They've got Riley Skinner," referring to the Deacs' QB.  Unfortunately for Groh, he's ultimately responsible for the lack of talent he now sees in Charlottesville.  Fortunately for the rest of us, its inconceivable that he'll be responsible for it much longer.  

Continue reading this post...

Doing What You Need to Do, Not What You Want to Do

As you've probably noticed, we've been a little thin on content the last few weeks here at the 7even Win Society.  We had grand plans to discuss whether the University's academic standards excuse Virginia's poor recruiting (as Groh hinted at during a press conference a few weeks back), perhaps look into how a few rumored coaching candidates are doing these days (because the end for Groh is all but certain to be nearing, no?), and maybe even start up some basketball banter (because we can't wait for a team that offers some hope).  But things like work, school, and family intervene sometimes, and you gotta do what you gotta do, not what you want to do.  (Don't worry, though, those posts are coming).

Unfortunately, while the scribes of the 7even Win Society did what we needed to do, not what we wanted to do in the last few weeks, Al Groh hasn't.  During a modest three-game winning streak, Coach Groh went to a gameplan that a talent-deprived roster had to in order to win some games -- play close to the vest offensively by running the ball, and rely on the team's relative strength on defense.  It was ironic and downright defiant, since Groh had been forced during the offseason to fire his own son and hire Gregg Brandon to revolutionize Virginia's offense.  But reverting back to his conservative roots is what Groh needed to do, and he seemed to be saying, starting with that game at Chapel Hill when Virginia ran the ball 43 times v. 27 pass attempts, that if he was going down, Groh was going down his way.

Groh followed the script the next two weeks.  Against an overmatched Indiana team, Virginia ran the ball 45 times to 31 passes.  Then, against a pass happy Terp squad on a muddy track, the Cavs ran the ball 38 times to 26 passes even though they were only averaging 1.7 yards a carry.  Nate Collins made good on that strategy when he snatched a Chris Turner pass out of mid-air and ran it back for a TD, just as Collins and Chase Minnifield had by forcing an interception that led to a game-clinching TD in Chapel Hill.  It wasn't pretty, but it was winning football.

So its been mind-boggling to watch the Hoos decide they're a passing team again the last few weeks.  Against Ga. Tech, Virginia ran the ball only 12 times, only 7 of which were RB carries.  It was a game that screamed out for Virginia to protect its defense, which bent but did not break in the first half against the Jackets' vaunted running game.  But with no time to recover, because Virginia was passing the ball, time of possession be damned (GT 42:43, Virginia 17:17), the defense predictably wore down.  But hey, you play to win the game, and perhaps the Virginia coaching staff thought it had to score to keep up with the Ramblin' Wreck.  Not that its offense has consistently scored by passing, mind you, but I was willing to give Groh a mulligan, since it was hard to see how Virginia wins that game regardless of the offensive strategy.

Duke was another matter.  Game in doubt throughout, and a game Virginia led early in the fourth quarter.  What's the breakdown?  Runs 28, Passes 38.  In a game in which Virginia's running backs averaged 5 yards a carry, no less, and Sewell and Verica were putting together a stinkfest passing (107 yards for the game).  

But Virginia still has time to redeem itself, or so we thought.  Duke scores the go-ahead TD to take a 18-17 lead.  3:45 left.  Plenty of time under college rules, where the clock stops after every first down and you still have a timeout.  The play calls where the running game has worked, but the passing hasn't?  Three passes, two incompletions and a sack that forces a fumble returned for a TD.  That's OK.  Still only down one score.  You now need a TD, but a Minnifield return has just set you up with good field position at the VA 39.  And there's still an eternity left -- 3:22.  Calls?  Four more passes, three incompletions, one sack on fourth down.  A mind-numbing 28-17 loss to Duke at home.

I bring this up not to second-guess the play-calling (OK, maybe I am a little bit), but as a reminder with a trip to Miami and Heisman-candidate Jacory Harris looming on Saturday.  The Canes average 388 yards of offense per game, and have scored more than 27 points in all but two games this season, a number Virginia itself has eclipsed twice all season.  Let's not pretend the Cavs can score with Miami; they can't.  Virginia ranks dead last in the ACC in scoring and total offense.

But the two teams that have held the Canes under 27 had one thing in common -- they ran the ball.  In a September slogfest in Blacksburg, Virginia Tech ran the ball 55 times to 9 passes, and crushed the previously unbeaten Canes.  Then, playing without Heisman coverboy Sam Bradford, Oklahoma broke tendency and ran the ball 42 times to 30 passes against Miami.  The Sooners didn't win, but hung around until the very end in a 21-20 squeaker.  Now, I'm not suggesting the Hoos can run the ball like those two national powers -- they can't -- but if the last two weeks have proven anything, its that Virginia can't win by abandoning the run for a mediocre at-best passing attack.  Let's hope this Saturday, Virginia does what it needs to do, not what it might want to do.      Continue reading this post...

Who is This 4-3 Football Team, and What Have They Done With Duke?

Who thought we'd see the day when it would be late October and Virginia would have a worse record than Duke?  Anyone?  Didn't think so.  By this time of year, Duke fans are usually following reports out of early season basketball practice.  OK, they probably still are, but Duke football is no longer a free win on the schedule, as evidenced by the 31-3 thrashing Virginia suffered last year in Durham.

The reason is simple, and it starts at the top (hint, hint Craig Littlepage).  Head Coach David Cutcliffe, who mentored Peyton Manning as OC at Tennessee and brother Eli as HC at Ole Miss, has brought much-needed credibility to the program.  Sure, there have been bumps in the road, like a season-opening loss to Mike London's 1-AA Richmond squad (second hint, hint).  Its still Duke, after all.  But there have been signs of progress as well.  The Blue Devils played Va. Tech closer than expected in a 34-26 loss, and followed that up with two wins at N.C. State and v. Maryland.  Its not the Steve Spurrier-era redux just yet, but its respectable.

That's mostly because of the offensive acumen Cutcliffe brought with him.  Duke averages just under 30 points a game, with most of the offense coming through the air (322.6 ypg passing v. only 74.4 ypg rushing).  QB Thaddeus Lewis, a four-year starter that has only gotten better under Cutcliffe, is the straw that stirs the drink for virtually everything Duke does on offense.  Lewis has a cannon for an arm, and has gradually increased his completion percentage and cut down on mistakes as his career has progressed.  The result this season is a signal-caller completing 64% of his throws with 14 TDs against only 3 ints.

Fortunately for the Hoos, Duke's strength plays right into theirs.  Virginia has struggled this season with run-dominant attacks (203 and 214 yards rushing allowed to TCU and S. Miss. respectively before surrendering last week's jaw-dropping 362 to Ga. Tech).  But they've held in check pass-first offenses Indiana and Maryland behind a stalwart secondary.  Expect the same Saturday against the Dukies.

It will also help Virginia that while Cutcliffe has improved the offense, its still the same old Duke defense.  The Devils surrender 25 points and 139 yards rushing per contest.  Expect a heavy dose of Mikell Simpson.        

(Ed. note - Simpson should be fresh after only six carries against Ga. Tech.  I know the run game was stifled early, but after playing to the team's strength -- defense -- by playing it close to the vest offensively during a three-game winning streak, Groh didn't do a whole lot to protect his charges against the Jackets.  With no offensive drives that lasted longer than 2:30 in the first half, Virginia was set up to surrender a back-breaking 10+ minute drive to start the second half.  Maybe the run was never going to work, but left with no time to recover because Virginia barely tried to run the ball to at least eat up some clock, the defense was bound to wear down eventually, and it did). 

Its a game Virginia should win, and if Groh holds out any hope (if there's any left) of keeping his job, a game he almost has to win.  It'd also help Groh's cause if more than 40,000 Virginia fans show up to watch.  I'm relatively confident about the win, less so about the attendance.  That might be a more damning commentary on the state of the program than any doubt surrounding the outcome of the Duke game. Continue reading this post...

Oktoberfest Buzz

What in the world has happened? Only a month ago, this thing was all sorted out – a horrific 0-3 start, including an embarrassing loss to William and Mary, meant had officially hit rock bottom. All signs pointed to Groh’s dismissal as a foregone conclusion, and after being on the proverbial “hot season” for several seasons, it finally seemed like a true consensus had been reached regarding the embattled coach. The only question remaining was whether or not he would be released during the bye week or if Littlepage and company might consider an “exit” plan.

Yet a road win last Saturday over Maryland extended the Cavs winning streak to three, got them to .500 on the season, and as expected, caught the attention of some national media and even elicited some minor praise. While entertaining and good for news stories, Groh’s trademark as an October turnaround specialist proves confounding to most Virginia fans and downright problematic to those who firmly believe “Groh-must-go.” As it stands, the rebound certainly complicates the situation, and a matter that seemed resolved just three games ago once again provokes far more questions and “what-ifs” than answers.

So, the Yellow Jackets come to town tomorrow in what has turned out to be a surprise mid-season ACC showdown in C’ville, yet, no matter the outcome, the game will likely do little to help clarify things for Virginia fans. A loss and clearly things get very dicey, yet not entirely hopeless, and with this crew, who knows how the rest of the season will play out. On the other hand, a Cavalier upset probably only makes the Duke game that much more nerve-wracking. Long-time Wahoo fans have come to almost expect having their hearts stomped on just when things start to look promising, and a flop against Duke at home seems so fitting to follow an upset-win over Ga Tech. Even if UVa finishes October at 5-3, becoming bowl eligible is still no sure bet.

Ultimately, anything after tomorrow’s game is neither here nor there, and as players and coaches alike always take it “one game at a time,” so too should Cav fans. The Ramblin’ Wreck visits tomorrow and recent history favors the Hoos. References to Ga. Tech’s current winless streak in Scott Stadium abound, and for those who follow the Cavaliers, it would not come as a complete shock if Virginia pulls off the upset. These two squads seem to have a knack for making sure the favored team suffers a disappointing and often season-altering defeat. If the Cavaliers want to continue the trend, the overwhelming consensus is that they must find a way to stop Tech’s high-powered running game.

Averaging over 281 yards per game, Ga Tech ranks second in the country in rushing and their 417 yards of total offense per contest is good for second in the ACC. Quarterback Josh Nesbitt orchestrates the Yellow Jackets’ triple-option, and in fact, the junior leads the team with 625 rushing yards on the season – good enough for 34^th in the country no less. Reigning ACC offensive player of the year Jonathan Dwyer follows closely behind Nesbitt with 593 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns on the season. How heavily do the Jackets rely on these two guys and their ground attack? Put it this way, last week against the Hokies, Ga Tech ran the ball 63 times (43 of which were either Dwyer or Nesbitt) and the two accounted for 204 of the team’s 309 rushing yards on the afternoon. For the season, Nesbitt has only 80 pass attempts, and last week against Va Tech he was a mere 1-7 for 51 yards. On the rare occasion they do go to the air, look for Demarius Thomas to be the prime target as he leads the team with 27 catches for 671 yards and 4 touchdowns on the year.

While every team facing the Ramblin’ Wreck knows what to expect, few have been able to slow them down. For the Hoos to control the Yellow Jackets' running attack, Hootie of the Daily Progress points to the importance of Virginia maintaining their defensive assignments while Michael Phillips of the RTD stresses being patient defensively. Virginia’s defense has proven decent most of the season and has especially come on strong during the three-game winning streak. The Cavs enter the contest ranked 21st nationally while only allowing 293 yards of total offense per game. Virginia will have to go without defensive end Matt Conrath, and he plays a key role in a unit that has fared relatively well against the run (ranking 59th nationally). Against Maryland the Hoos gave up less than 4 yards per carry (Va Tech surrendered almost 5 yards a carry to the Yellow Jackets last week). Forcing three turnovers was a key contributing factor in last year’s upset victory and this is one area that could likely play a big role in tomorrow’s contest – takeaways are certainly one way to slow Ga Tech’s ground attack, keep their offense off the field, and disrupt their ball control. After digging themselves a deep whole early in the season, Virginia is now back on the plus side in turnover margin and ranks 37th nationally

Of course, UVa's offense could do their part in helping slow the Ramblin' Wreck attack by sustaining long drives and putting plenty of points on the board. Sewell is probable for Saturday's contest and Mikell Simpson is expected to play which is good news for the Cavalier offense. Ga Tech has been allowing opposing offenses to move the ball well against them. The Yellow Jackets surrender almost 378 yards per game and give up 26 points per outing, so Virginia should be able to move the ball and generate some ball control of their own.

Call it Virginia’s version of Oktoberfest, chalk it up as yet another shining example of the “Octgrohber” effect, or simply blame it on Groh continuing to live up to his media nickname of “Mr. October,” but whatever the reason, Virginia's turnaround has certainly made things interesting. The players call him “Jeezy,” for Young Jeezy, and while there seems to be no obvious connection between Groh and the hip-hop artist, Young Jeezy’s single titled “Crazy World” off his 2008 album The Recession seems to aptly sum up the season thus far. Hoo knows, if history continues to repeat itself, things might just get even more crazy after Saturday.
Continue reading this post...

Why Plan for 2013 When You Can Go 5-7 in 2009?

Those of you who read the blog regularly know I've been critical of the media from time to time.  I'm sure its not always fair.  When you have to create material daily for often the most important sport your media outlet covers, it can be hard to come up with an original piece, especially when you've been doing it as long as some of these guys have.  Its even harder when the team stinks.

So I'd be remiss if I didn't recognize when journalists try to break out of the mundacity of daily coverage with a thought-provoking piece or two.  For people who follow UVA sports, the Washington Post's coverage (or lack thereof) of Virginia athletics is a popular whipping boy.  Their Twerp-centric coverage of Virginia's 20-9 victory over now 2-5 Maryland doesn't help.  But in the week leading up to the Maryland-Virginia tilt, I thought Zach Berman, who's been doing a solid job (not great -- you have to get more front page stories than Navy for that) covering UVA sports as part of the Post's new Cavalier Journal, had two such stories.  

The first was on Tuesday (we'll cover the second later in the week), when Berman examined Al Groh's sometimes maddening failure to redshirt freshmen.  This is real inside baseball stuff, as most casual Virginia fans wouldn't notice, and only the true die-hards harp about it.  But that's precisely why I applaud Berman tackling this topic instead of preparing the 105th "Groh is Mr. October piece."  I would have preferred that he dug a little deeper than just this season because this is a pattern, not an isolated occurrence, with Groh, and I didn't agree with what appeared to be his conclusion propped up by Groh's quotes on the subject - that it helps prepare players to contribute as sophomores, or even this year.   Unfortunately, my short-term schedule doesn't allow me to dig any deeper right now (perhaps a future post).  But I did want to throw it out there now.

In the article, Berman correctly notes that two players - Eugene Monroe and Alex Field - played as true freshman, and thus exhausted their eligibility last year and were not eligible to return to the Orange and Blue this season.  Monroe played in every game as a freshman, and isn't necessarily a fair example because as a projected top 10 pick, he probably would have left last year anyway.  But Field, who played five games, saw the field for 33 plays, and recorded all of two tackles as a freshman, is not playing football anywhere right now.  Even duplicating his 2008 line - 48 tackles, 7.5 TFL, and 4.5 sacks - would have made what looks like a solid defense even better.  

As ACC Sports Journal notes, Groh this season has already played twelve true freshman, some of whom no longer even travel with the team.  Think about that as you watch Groh burn a year of eligibility for speedster Tim Smith, who has no doubt contributed, but is now squarely behind at least Kris Burd, Vic Hall, and Jared Green on the depth chart, and who's skill set (speed on deep patterns) is readily duplicated by redshirt freshman Javaris Brown.  Or that Groh may have burned a year of eligibility for Dominique Wallace (who will have to hope for a medical redshirt after suffering a season-ending foot injury) when he had Mikell Simpson, Rashawn Jackson, and Torrey Mack on the roster. 

Now, we don't know what promises (if any) were made to players when they were recruited, and sometimes positional scarcity mandates that true freshman play.  Will Hill, who's now next in line at DE behind Nate Collins and Zane Parr now that Matt Conrath has gone down, probably would have been forced to play anyway.  Of course, that wouldn't be the case if the Hoos still had Field.  See how this pattern needs to be broken?

And even if true freshman are capable of contributing, I don't buy the notion, peddled by Groh in the article, that it helps prepare them for when they do play.  The best example I or anyone could come up with is Michael Vick.  When I was covering the same beat Berman now walks, Virginia Tech beat writers were quite literally giddy about Vick in the fall of 1998.  He wasn't playing, mind you, on a 9-3 Hokie squad that played later converted to safety Nick Sorenson as its signal-caller at times.  Vick seemed to do just fine without playing as a true freshman, going 11-0 in his redshirt year before losing a memorable National Championship game against Florida State.

Could Vick have helped Tech in 1998?  Absolutely.  Could he have helped avert the greatest comeback in Virginia history, when the Hoos rebounded from a 29-7 halftime deficit to nip the Hokies 36-32 in Blacksburg?  Probably, but we're glad he didn't.  Could he have made a very good 1998 Hokie team perhaps a great one a year ahead of schedule?  Sure.  It would even have been defensible - Tech needed help at QB in 1998, and Vick ended up leaving after two years anyway.   

But its damning on a team that isn't any good, and downright destructive to the future of the program, whether Groh's going to be here or not.  Alex Field will almost certainly never play on Sundays, but he's no longer a member of the Cavaliers because of 33 plays as a freshman.  Tim Smith won't be a member of the 2013 Hoos, and all he's got to show for it so far is a pair of TD catches in losing efforts.  As a fan of the team, I'm happy to see Tim Smith flying up and down the field on Saturdays.  As a supporter of the program, I see no reason why I couldn't wait a year to see it, with the promise of an extra year down the road when Smith could be really good.

So yeah, its great that Groh is Mr. October.  We just wonder whether he'd be doing a little better in September and November if he managed his redshirts a little better.  And we're glad Zach is talking about it.       Continue reading this post...

Ladies and Gentlemen, Your First Place Virginia Cavaliers

For the second time in three weeks, Al Groh just made sure his offense didn't lose the game, and put the game in his defense's hands.  Nate Collins made good on that gameplan in a muddy slogfest at College Park.  Twerps fans might say the better team lost, but Maryland wasn't better in the stat that often determines games (turnover margin was 4-1), and where it matters most: on the scoreboard. 

Some observations:

• It appeared that, like last week, it might be a costly win for the Hoos.  QB Jameel Sewell looked like he twisted his knee pretty good, but said he was fine after the game.  Matt Conrath might be a different story, but no update on either just yet. 
• After Collins' heroics late in the third quarter, QB Marc Verica threw one more pass the rest of the game.  I couldn't have been happier with the play-calling.  Like Groh's decision to punt late in the first half from the Terps' 35, Groh was simply playing the hand he's been dealt (or more appropriately, the hand he's dealt himself as a recruiter).
• In the absence of Mikell Simpson, Rashawn Jackson was pretty good.  I wouldn't call him magnificent, as Groh did (I'd expect that a guy as big as Jackson would run over people more, but I'm nitpicking). But he was rugged when he needed to be, specifically when his number was called ten straight times in the fourth quarter to salt the game away.
• Just as important to the Hoos' offense was QB, turned WR, sometimes CB, and occasional PR Vic Hall, who has developed into his roomate's favorite target at wideout.  Hall led the Hoos with 5 catches for 53 yards, and Sewell targeted #4 whenever the Hoos needed a play.
• The Turtles outgained the Hoos 284-201 and had 17 first downs to Virginia's 9.  But QB Chris Turner looked downright awful in the elements.  So it was a little puzzling to me why the Terps didn't run more (their usual M.O. notwithstanding).  I guess when your RBs put the ball on the ground as much as they do, that'll change your play-calling, which was run-dominant early.  Still, it makes no sense that Maryland threw more than they ran when they were running at four yards a clip in a mosh pit.  Virginia, meanwhile, had a much more sensible 38 run-26 pass split. 
• Virginia didn't often get to Turner (only one sack), but harassed him all day, and the secondary was sound.  On top of his game-winning TD, Collins had the team's only sack, two tackles for loss, and led the Hoos with nine tackles.  Not bad, eh?
• Finally, it was nice to see that coaching head-scratchers aren't limited to the Cavalier sideline.  With 1:54 on the clock and one timeout left, Maryland Coach Ralph Friedgen actually ran his punt team onto the field on fourth down in a 13-9 game.  Granted it was 4th & 18 from their own two, but if you punt, you're essentially conceding defeat in a 4-point game.  Virginia saved him by calling timeout (hard to blame them -- I'm sure they were just as confused as I was by the call), at which point Fridge thought better of it and sent his offense back on the field.  Amazes me that head coaches, epsecially those who don't call plays anymore like Fridge, can't seamlessly handle these situations.  But I guess that's why Maryland is 2-5.

Continue reading this post...

Nothing Like a Trip to Chapel Hill to Cure What Ails You

Amidst all the talk of the new offense, the fact that the defense has uncharacteristically struggled has been lost in the conversation.  Not Saturday.  They could have played eight quarters, and the Heels still wouldn't have crossed the goal line.  Some thoughts on Virginia's first win of the season:

• LB Steve Greer set the tone on the opening drive with two tackles for loss.  Matt Conrath (3 batted balls) continued the momentum.  Nate Collins finished the job with a hit on T.J. Yates that led to a Chase Minnifield interception, setting up the game-clinching TD. 
• If he's going down, Al Groh is going to go down his way.  From his offensive adjustments two weeks ago to his defensive game plan against UNC, Al Groh is putting his stamp on this team. Even on offense, the game was called to avoid mistakes under the assumption that UNC couldn't score without help.  They couldn't.  
• I'll admit I was a little nervous about how Virignia would respond after literally getting run over in back to back weeks against TCU and S. Miss.  Then I saw John Shoop in the coach's box calling UNC's plays and immediately felt better. 
• As we've said in this space before, Mikell Simpson is the best offensive player on the team, and UVA should be getting him the ball more.  Inspired by watching 2007 game film Friday night, Simpson WAS the offense on Saturday, with 20 carries for 102 yards and a TD, and a team-leading four catches for 45 yards.  That wasn't so hard, was it?
• Less than a month after Virginia played three QBs in the season opener, its now exclusively Jameel Sewell's show.  Marc Verica made a brief appearance, but only because Sewell was nursing a hand injury at the time.  And Vic Hall took himself out of the QB picture with an act of selflessness.  Sewell is flawed - he makes bad decisions from time to time, sails throws on an almost regular basis, and doesn't always seem to see the field particularly well - but he gives Virginia its best chance to win.  If Sewell can stick to the script - only 169 total yards but ZERO turnovers on Saturday - Virginia will at least be competitive the rest of the way.   
• Jared Green isn't a star but he's developing a nice little niche as 3rd down receiver.  Only two catches, but both moved the sticks on 3rd down.
• Tip of the cap to K Robert Randolph.  Teams often don't notice the kicker unless he's missing kicks, so we should recogize them when they do the job.  Randoph went 3-for-3 to stake Virginia to a lead before Simpson's TD sealed the deal.

Virginia is now 7-2 against North Carolina under Groh and 10-1 in October under Groh since 2007.  Perfect storm?  Maybe.  But the calendar doesn't turn from October until four more games are played.  November largely has been a different story (13-17, including 0-4 last year, under Groh), so UVA better get fat while it can. Continue reading this post...

Cavs/Heels, Part 114

Its probably too late to discuss turnarounds or bowl chances.  Too many tough games left on the schedule, and not enough signs of life.  As the Daily Press notes, Virginia is in the midst of its longest losing streak since 1982 (seven and counting dating back to last season).  But as we noted earlier in the week, Virginia's annual matchup with its state-school neighbor to the south has often produced surprising Cavalier victories.

Reports abound of a productive bye week, here and here.  Hootie, noting Groh's 6-2 mark against UNC, thinks this might be the week the Cavs may be able to break through with a W. North Carolina has struggled offensively, especially in last week's 24-7 loss at Georgia Tech.  Although its a bit much to call them hapless.  Last time I checked, hapless looked a lot more like 0-3 than 3-1, even if those wins are against the Citadel, UConn, and ECU.  And after watching TCU's Jerry Hughes live in the Cavalier backfield three weeks ago, Virginia can't be looking forward to seeing Robert Quinn, he of 5.5 TFL, three sacks, and an uplifting comeback story.  Mr. Quinn is probably licking his chops to get after the team that has surrendered the most sacks in the nation this season. 

Speaking of struggling offenses, the Post notes its Sewell's show with Hall's status still uncertain.  Doug Doughty notes that they'd just like to keep Sewell upright.  At least perhaps his receiving corps are coming around.  After two games in which they were largely invisible, the Cavs' receiving corps showed improvement against S. Miss.  The Cavs are hoping rookies Tim Smith and Javaris Brown continue to develop in order to supplement the production of "vets" Kris Burd and Jared Green.  The Post also notes that Smith is working his way into the KO return rotation.

Finally, its not surprising to see guys like Hootie picking the Cavs to win, but it is a little surprising to see ESPN saying the same thing.  Its not out of the realm of possibility, but something tells me Carolina is looking to make a statement at home coming off last week's loss at Ga. Tech.  So don't hold your breath, and remind yourself its only two weeks until basketball practice starts. Continue reading this post...

The Case FOR Al Groh

As you can probably guess, we're not huge fans of Al Groh around here, or at the very least, aren't fans of keeping someone around who clearly isn't your guy.  But here at the 7even Win Society, we're always interested in looking at the other side of any issue.  And on this front, the case FOR Al Groh is a little stronger than you might think.  Not that we'd keep him, mind you, but some things to think about:

(1) The Man Can Coach: The occasional complete head-scratcher aside, no one doubts Coach Groh's ability to coach the game, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  His recent adjustments to the Cavaliers' offense only reinforces those credentials.

He's won ACC Coach of the Year twice, in 2002 and 2007.  And the results, over the course of a decade, have been solid.  After an initial 5-7 season, Groh led the Cavs to four straight bowl game appearances.  No one questioned at that time whether the program was headed in the right direction, only (like under Welsh) whether it could make the leap to the next level.  Meanwhile, people were stealing assistants left and right.  Bill Musgrave went to the NFL to be an OC in 2003.  Ron Prince picked up the offensive without missing a beat.  Then he went to Kansas State in 2006.  Al Golden left for Temple in 2005.  All were solid lieutenants, but its hard to attribute too much of the Cavs' success to those men.  Musgrave is now coaching quarterbacks, not calling plays. Prince is back in C'ville coaching special teams.  Golden has yet to break .500 at Temple. 

No, the constant has been Groh.  Nonetheless, in 2007, si.com called Groh the worst coach in college football.  By the end of the season, si.com was eating those words, admitting that "there's no question he's gotten every ounce out of that team," and revisited his preseason column by stating "I ended up going with Groh, and obviously he's the one who's most proven it wrong."  Whether you like him or not, most people would agree that he gets everything out of the kids he's coaching. 

But this is college, not the NFL.  If the players aren't good enough, that's his fault, right?  Well...

(2) You say He Can't Recruit, But There Are A Bunch of Former Hoos in the NFL Who Suggest Otherwise: As Doug Doughty noted a few years back, you might be surprised how Virginia players have fared at the next level compared to Virginia Tech, which is generally viewed as having outrecruited the Hoos for years now.  Its no longer true that Virginia has more NFL players on active rosters than the Hokies, but the spread is only two (25 to 23).  A skeptic might point out (and be right) that some of the current Virginia alums playing in the NFL were recruited by George Welsh, but let's remember that the same charge - he can't recruit - was often leveled against him. 

What about elite talent, you might ask?  Well, if you are asking that question, you clearly haven't been paying attention to the last few drafts.  Having a Hoo picked in the first round has almost become an annual rite.  Eugene Monroe (right) is just the latest example (No. 8 to the Jags in 2009).  In 2008, two Cavs went in the first round -- Chris Long at No. 2 to the Rams and Branden Albert at No. 15 to the Chiefs.  D'Brickashaw Ferguson went No. 4 to the Jets in 2006, and Heath Miller just snuck into the first round at No. 30 to the Steelers in 2005. 

Add to that a handful of players who have been picked in the later rounds but have stuck as starters (OT Brad Butler, OG Elton Brown, and DE Chris Canty) and a few others that had the talent to do so (LBs Ahmad Brooks and Darryl Blackstock come to mind), and you've got a solid stable of talent.  It should also be noted that of Virginia's 2009 draft class, all four players who were drafted made NFL rosters, and a fifth - WR Kevin Ogletree - made the Cowboys as an undrafted free agent. 

(3) He Has Been the Victim of Circumstance At the Most Important Position on the Field: After the 2006 graduation of QB Marques Hagans, who led to the Hoos to consecutive bowl games as a starter, Virginia turned to Christian Olsen, a once-heralded recruit who had transferred from Notre Dame, but he quickly flopped.  By Week 4, the Hoos had turned to a true freshman named Jameel Sewell, who showed flashes of brilliance.  But with a rookie signal-caller leading the way, Virginia predictably finished 5-7, and did not make a bowl for the first time in five years.   

With a year under his belt, and stalwart defense led by Chris Long on the other side of the ball, Sewell helped lead a revival in 2007.  The Cavs, picked by many to be no better than a middle of the pack team in the ACC, was in contention for the ACC crown throughout the season, and was 9-2 heading into a season finale showdown with Virginia Tech and a trip to the ACC Championship game on the line.  The matter was in doubt into the fourth quarter when Sewell left the game temporarily with an injury.  The Hoos would not score again.  However, UVA still earned a berth in a New Year's Day Bowl -- the Gator against Texas Tech -- for the first time since 1994.

Things looked secure at the QB spot in 2008, with Sewell returning as a two-year starter, and highly-touted Peter Lalich, who had played as a true freshman, backing him up.  But Sewell was declared academically ineligible, and Lalich, amidst myriad allegations of wrongdoing, was eventually dismissed from the team and decided to transfer to Oregon State.  That left Virginia with third-stringer Marc Verica at QB, and a pair of embarrasing (but predictable) losses at Connecticut and at Duke.  Nonetheless, the Cavs rallied for four straight wins in October, including a pair of wins against ranked opponents North Carolina and Georgia Tech.  Needing only one more win to secure an unlikely bowl berth, the Cavs fell short in OT against Miami, and then lost its last three, including a game effort at Blacksburg in a 17-14 loss that saw converted CB Vic Hall almost Wildcat the Hoos to victory against a superior opponent. 

We, of course, don't know how Virginia would have done with more stability at the QB position in 2006 and 2008.  We're just saying its a little too easy to pin the failures of those seasons on Groh when he was playing short-handed at the most important position on the field. 

(4) We're Not Sure Virginia Could Do Any Better:  When the Hoos went searching for a replacement for George Welsh after the 2000 season, let's remember that it wasn't an easy search.  It won't be any easier this time around.  Is Virginia going to drop its academic standards for recruits?  Unlikely.  Does it still have to fight tooth and nail for in-state recruits with Virginia Tech, who has dominated the state recruiting-wise for years?  Yes, until Frank Beamer calls it quits.  Does it also have to contend with previously sleeping giants to the south (Butch Davis at North Carolina) and west (Lane Kiffin at Tennessee) for recruits?  Yep.  Is the Virginia fan base going to start travelling better, thus ensuring better bowl berths?  I'll let you answer that one.   

Yes, we'd all like to think that Virginia should do better.  But I'm not sure there's much evidence supporting those aspirations.  And all of the above considerations will be on any prospective coach's mind before he signs on the dotted line. 

And I'll leave you with this.  Its said that those who do not learn from the lessons of history are bound to repeat them.  Once upon a time, Virginia had to replace an iconic coach who had built a major program from the ground up.  It turned to one of its own to fill the void.  That coach led the Hoos to the postseason in four of his first five, and five of his first seven, seasons.  After the wheels came off in two of his last three seasons, Virginia fired that coach.  His name was Jeff Jones.

I issue that reminder not to say that the decision to fire Jones was a mistake, or that it would be a mistake to do the same to Groh.  Virginia had reasons beyond performance to part ways with Jones, just as it has reasons beyond performance to fire Groh.  But Jones was also known as a guy who got every ounce out of his players, but couldn't recruit.  Yet people forget that towards the end of his tenure, he brought Courtney Alexander to UVA (only to see him transfer to Fresno State before heading to the NBA) and was in the process of bringing a badly needed big man on campus until Melvin Whitaker decided a pick-up basketball game was important enough to slash someone in the face.  So like Groh, he has in part been the victim of circumstance, and the results he has achieved are eerily similar to Groh's.

So when people say to fire Al Groh, remember that after firing Jones, it has taken we hope only ten years to get it right after him.  People thought the program was in the wilderness under Jones too, but his results (five NCAA tournaments in eight years) look awfully good next to the men who replaced him (Gillen 1 in 7, and Leitao 1 in 4).  So if you think Virginia football is in the wilderness now (five bowl trips in eight seasons), let's just say you may not have seen anything yet.  Maybe, just maybe, you don't want to find out.    Continue reading this post...

Some Signs of Life, but Still No W

It wasn't unwatchable this week (well, unless you don't get College Sports TV, one of the only networks to be offered in less households than ESPN U Don't Get It).  For those of you who could watch, you were treated to non-stop cliches from Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila's younger brother Akbar, who was "analyzing" the game for CSTV.  O where, o where have you gone, Mac McDonald.

Some thoughts on the game: 

• Al Groh attempted to take control of his own fate this week, ditching parts of the spread while reinstalling more traditional pro sets.  The result was 268 first half yards, an offense that outgained USM for the game, and 25 first downs, six more than the Hoos had in their first two games combined. 
• But Virginia did appear to return to more spread-like playcalling in the 2nd half, particularly in the way they ran the football, to their detriment.  Notably, Cavalier RBs had 13 carries to Sewell's nine in the first half.  Relying more on RB runs also set up play action, including a 69-yard TD bomb to Tim Smith in the first half.  But after a handful of Sewell draws led to a late touchdown in the first half, the Hoos seemed to fall in love with the QB run, to the tune of 14 second half carries for Sewell against only seven RB carries.  It was effective at times (Sewell did finish with 79 rushing yards), but the proof is in the pudding - 27 first-half points to 7 in the second.     
• Hootie aptly noted last week that the Hoos' offensive problems start in the trenches.  The o-line was better against USM, which Hootie attributed to ditching the wider splits usually associated with the spread. 
• The D-line was not.  When Damion Fletcher decided to serve notice that he was the best player on the field, the Cavs' D did little to stop him.  The senior back, who will play on Sundays, finished with 26 carries for 132 yards, but it was his counterpart in the wildcat formation, Tory Harrison, who broke the Cavs' back with a 57-yard touchdown run that proved to be the decisive score.
• The Hoos were helped by some sloppy play by the Golden Eagles early in the game.  A pair of fumbles in their own end, which were more given away than forced, led to a pair of UVA FGs. Unfortunately, the final result would probably have been different if Virginia finished those drives off turnovers with TDs instead of stalling inside the USM 20 and settling for FGs.    
• Welcome back to relevance Jared Green.  Darrell's son had 5 catches for 30 yards.  Four of those catches resulted in first downs.  
• Chris Cook missed the contest with a groin injury. And in what is becoming a familar refrain, Mikell Simpson also missed the game with an injury, this time with a bruised shin.
• Finally, the last two times Virginia had gone 0-2 to start a season, the Cavs won their third game en route to a bowl game berth.  In Groh's second season in 2002, the Cavs lost their first two to Colorado State and Florida State, but rebounded to finish 9-5.  The last time before that Virginia lost its first two was 1987, when George Welsh led the Hoos to an 8-4 mark after dropping a pair to Georgia and Maryland.  Now that the Cavs have broken that trend, its probably time to settle in for a long season ... and ask when basketball season starts.    

Continue reading this post...

An Open Letter to Craig Littlepage

Dear Mr. Littlepage:

For the last two weeks, Al Groh has been the subject of fans' criticism, scorn, and boos. Sometime in the next few months (or if unsubstantiated rumors are to be believed the next week), you'll begin the search for a new football coach, and the heat will be on you.   

To be sure, Virginia fans have unreasonable expectations. When a George Welsh-led football program won at least seven games from 1987-99, Virginia fans often complained that he couldn't get the program over the hump to being great, and cited his contemporaries (Georgia Tech's Co Nat'l Championship team in 1990, Mack Brown's 1997 UNC team that went 11-1, and Frank Beamer's pair of 11-1 squads in 1999 and 2000) as evidence that it should have been possible. Similarly, Virginia fans didn't fully appreciate its own Jeff Jones, who brought his team to the NCAA Tournament in his first five seasons, including an improbable run to the Elite Eight in 1995 behind one marginal NBA player (Junior Burrough) and a guard who got the absolute maxium out of his limited physical ability (Harold Deane). Since being shown the door here, Jones has made the Dance twice at former doormat American, while Virginia was either sitting at home or hosting CBI games.

But its been a tough couple of years, and that can humble a fan base.  They've lost to teams that don't belong on the same field or court as the University of Virginia. William & Mary is the most recent example, but its been too common in recent years: Liberty (Hoops '08), Wyoming (Football '07), Western Michigan (Football '06), Fordham (Hoops '05). They've been embarrassed by teams they should always be able to compete with, especially at home. A post-renovation low graced the confines of Scott Stadium Saturday because everyone else that thought about attending cringed at what they might see. Perhaps they had flashbacks to a pair of whippings by Xavier (the last two season in Hoops), a 35-point gridiron loss in 2008 at Connecticut, who just started a I-A program this decade, or a 25-point thrashing at the hands of a Dave Wannstedt-led Pittsburgh squad in 2007. And they've gotten their brains beat in by Virginia Tech. We'd like to beat Virginia Tech more than once a decade in football, and we'd like to beat their brains in in everything else.

In the meantime, we're happy you've built an Athletic Department that competes for the Director's Cup. We congratulate the ACC Champions in Tennis, Cross-Country, Swimming & Diving, Track & Field, and Baseball. We applaud the fact that our lacrosse and soccer teams regularly compete for NCAA titles. And we think its great that you've revitalized some programs (field hockey) and built others from the ground up (rowing). But tennis and field hockey don't fill the stands, attract alumni donations, and generate money so all your others sports can compete on a national level.

Football and men's basketball do.  And fair or not, you won't be judged on building Stanford-East; you'll be judged on the successes and failures of the University's most visible programs.  And the blame for their present failures ultimately lies at the feet of the guy picking the men to run those programs.  You whiffed on your first big hire (Dave Leitao in 2005). The returns on Tony Bennett, the man you picked to replace him, have been good so far, but you'll have to deliver on your next hire if you want to avoid repeats of the sparse crowd you saw against TCU on Saturday.  We won't pretend to know for certain who the best man for the job is, although I'm sure we'll have our opinions.  But its on you to get it right.  Otherwise, there's plenty of room on that hot seat once Coach Groh vacates it.   

Signed,

The Scribes of the 7even Win Society

P.S. - if you do bring us the next George Welsh or Jeff Jones, we reserve the right to raise our expectations again.  Sorry, comes with the territory.      Continue reading this post...

On the Long and Winding Road to An Inevitable Coaching Change

For the eternal optimists among us, Saturday was yet another opportunity for an Al Groh-coached team to rebound from a jarring early season loss.  TCU was having none of it.  Some thoughts:

• QB Jameel Sewell will undoubtedly incur the wrath of most Virginia fans for the loss, but especially those who went to the game saw an O-line that didn't block (8 sacks) and receivers that got ZERO separation (2 catches for 9 yards before a pair of purely cosmetic TD catches late in the game against the Frogs' second-string D).  For those of you pining for Verica, he wouldn't have done much better against the rush Jerry Hughes & Co. were bringing.  At least Sewell could run for his life (21 carries for 35 net yards rushing).
• From Last Week's Head-Scratcher Dept.: One week after going with 3 QBs, and worse yet admitting that he planned to do so, Groh stuck with 1 signal-caller this week.  If it was such a good idea last week, why do a 180 the following week?  [Answer: it was a bad idea last week.] 
• From This Week's Head Scratcher Dept.: For those who noticed that the Hoos were letting the play clock run all the way down before snapping the ball, it was by design, said Groh, to keep down TCU's usual advantage in time of possession.  Coach, you win the time of possession battle by successfully running the ball and converting third downs, and stopping your opponent from doing the same, not by manufacturing that advantage.  Its not like the Hoos were playing the 2007 Patriots, and thus trying to keep them off the field.  I apologize to those who overheard me screaming at the radio during that answer in the post-game presser.
• The result of the HC's gimmick to try to win the time of possession battle?  TCU 34:49, Virginia 25:11.  Better luck next time, Coach.  Maybe the Hoos can ensure no worse than a tie in the turnover battle next week by taking a knee on every offensive play.  
• The defense was helped out early by a shaky opening game start by TCU QB Andy Dalton.  But when the Frogs committed to just running the ball late in the first half, they moved it at will and took a 14-0 lead into the locker room.  Not a good sign with run at will teams like Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech still on the schedule.
• Dalton was much sharper to open the second half.  Ras-I Dowling has the burn marks to prove it. 
• Mike London Watch: I can't help those who may be pining for the football program's version of Tubby Smith, but a pretty good coach is just down I-64 at the University of Richmond and did a pretty good job when he was here as the DC in C'ville.  A week after slaying their own ACC opponent (a 24-16 win at Duke), last year's FCS champions and this year's No. 1 FCS-ranked team won at Delaware in dramatic fashion.      
• Finally, at some point, they may have to fire Groh for the sake of the kids busting their butt to win games. It was hard to watch the majority of Virginia fans booing as the Cavaliers ran into the tunnel after a difficult first half.  I know most of them at least they were booing the coach, not the team, but tell that to a bunch of 18-22 year olds.  Cavalier fans are also talking with their wallet.  Saturday's official attendance of 48,366 was the lowest total since the latest renovation to Scott Stadium in 2000. 

Continue reading this post...

Seriously, why on earth is Groh still the coach? No, seriously.

As red4z noted in yesterday’s post, it is too easy to simply write a “Fire Groh” post. But given that William & Mary sealed Al Groh’s fate, let’s get into the real question of the hour: why is he coaching against TCU? To me, it’s sort of the opposite of what Harry told Sally: when you figure out you don’t want to spend your Saturdays with someone, you want to stop spending your Saturdays with that person as soon as possible.

Groh coaching Saturday creates a lose-lose situation for both Groh and Virginia. If TCU and Southern Miss beat Virginia, it’s expected and the long march to December continues, tension mounting with each loss for when the hammer will drop.

If Virginia somehow manages to beat TCU or Southern Miss, it raises the possibility of Groh doing just enough to keep his job but not enough to actually get the program out of neutral, and puts off the inevitable for another year or two. The entire season becomes defined by the Groh Death Watch, which is a horrible way for the year to play out and does the school no public relations favors.

If, say, Ron Prince (the uninspiring but obvious choice) gets a battlefield promotion, and has the exact same best-case-scenario season that Groh would have had, it is a cause for excitement. Littlepage gets the chance to evaluate a candidate on the job, things start getting pointed towards the future a little earlier. If team stinks, it is not like anyone would have expected that results would have been far better WITH Groh, so there really is very little opportunity cost.

To be clear, losing to William & Mary IS a firing offense. Don’t give me any them-be-the-breaks, that’s-how-the-ball-bounces, they’re-a-I-AA-playoff-team bull. Yes, losing to I-AA teams happens. To badly-coached teams.


Virginia has much more talent in both quality and quantity than William & Mary. This is not an argument. There is a massive advantage in the number of scholarships a I-A team has versus a I-AA team, and it is incredibly unlikely that any player on William & Mary would have gone there if Virginia had offered an opportunity.

Now, I would not doubt that a half-dozen players on William & Mary are better than many players on Virginia’s roster, maybe even a dozen players are better. But even if those players are perfectly distributed in impact positions (quarterback, receiver, offensive and defensive backfield, left tackle, right end, etc.), Virginia’s overall superiority in talent should have persevered in the end. With relative ease.

Or, think about it this way: if Virginia and W&M are remotely equal in talent, that means that Groh is either INCREDIBLY deficient at recruiting and/or developing talent, OR that William & Mary’s coaching staff is VASTLY superior tactically than Groh. Either way, it’s damning.

The “Virginia has turned things around before” chorus is not a good counterpoint. Any program that has this much experience at “turning things around” from terrible starts has some serious problems. The argument of “We Play Better with Our Backs Against the Wall” implies that a team gets its back to the wall often enough to have a well-established track record there---and I’m looking at you, Washington Capitals. Good teams don’t do that. Good teams win enough not to constantly put themselves in the position of needing to win.

Also, it’s not like Virginia isn’t bound to play better after playing so poorly. Virginia played terribly on Saturday, and it will play better at some point in the near future simply because the Cavaliers are not truly THAT bad, just as they weren’t as bad as they looked against Wyoming and Directional Michigan and USC and even Richmond and all the other craptastic early season performances in years past. Regression towards the mean dictates that teams tend towards their true ability in the long run, and by starting out poorly year after year, Virginia really has nowhere to regress but up.

So, Virginia WILL play better, and it will have little to do with Groh; it’ll play better because it IS a better team than it looked like. (Additionally, some amount of randomness went into that turd of a performance last Saturday, though not enough to compensate for the loss). This natural tendency to “improve” only increases the danger of Groh winning six or seven games and creating a narrative that gives Littlepage cover to keep Groh.

This is not a Steinbrennerian (Snyderian?) spur-of-the-moment decision. Groh’s been coach FOR EIGHT YEARS. Freshmen and sophomores in high school don’t remember George Welsh coaching Virginia. If those freshmen and sophomores happen to run a sub-4.5 40-yard-dash, they can use a reason to pay attention.

It’s not hasty to fire Groh now, even if it’s in midseason. It’s set against a backdrop of questionable and alienating moves since almost day one, ranging from the not-go-for-two decision against Wisconsin (which was perhaps the first step on the slippery slope to where we’re at) to the bizarre scheduling choices, to the losses to the teams scheduled in the bizarre scheduling choices, to the problematic drain of talent both of coaches and player off-field issues. Any semblance of a relationship with the fans is gone, setting up a perverse incentive to root against a sixth win (were there to be a miracle and Virginia to reach that point) to ensure that Littlepage can’t rehire him without facing a riot.

Groh has defenders, not supporters, at this point.

The two most similar decisions that leap to my mind (though others I’m sure are out there), are Frank Broyles firing Jack Crowe after Arkansas lost to the Citadel in an opener in the early 1990s and Clemson canning Tommy Bowden after a month last year. The Citadel was similarly I-AA, and while expectations are presumably higher at both programs (they’ve both won national titles, after all), Bowden had a similar path of success (even slightly superior) to Groh, mixed with a reputation for arrogance and aloofness from the fanbase.

Crowe’s firing didn’t end up working out so well for Arkansas---they were stuck for awhile in the mud, but again, it’s not like anyone was lamenting the Jack Crowe era afterwards. Bowden’s firing so far has seemed to work out for Clemson---the Tigers found value in a lost season, removing the interim tag from Dabo Swinney’s job description last December after the Tigers turned things around.

More than anything, firing Groh now gives hope, perhaps fleeting, of better Saturdays to come, even this year. If nothing else, it gives certainty to a situation that has needed it for three years, and avoids the biggest problem of all: Groh winning more games.

Continue reading this post...

From the Captain Obvious Department

As noted in our opening post, one of the things we're looking for here at the 7even Win Society is intelligent discussion of UVA sports. Judging from the Fourth Estate's coverage of Saturday's debacle against William & Mary, we're still looking.  A sampling (and these are the highlights people): 

• Kris Wright over at the Sabre thinks Saturday's loss is the last straw.  We agree, but as ACC COY noted last week, did we really need to wait for this?
• Jeff White blamed turnovers (seven is too much, eh?), and then played cheerleader.  I hope Jeff's experiment writing for Virginiasports.com isn't always just a cheerleading gig.
• The DP said the spread laid an egg.  Hootie gets a gold star for writing something at least somewhat insightful. 
• Doug Doughty ponders whether this was UVA's worst loss ever.  I really like Doug as a writer, but it seems to me he's always trying remind people how long he's been around.
• And Heather Dinich over at ESPN's new ACC Blog thinks UVA is looking at a possible 0-4 start.  Sorry Heather, we can peruse the schedule too, and we're more worried about something like 2-10.
• The Washington Post is trying to create a "turning point" for its coverage of UVA athletics by starting a Cavaliers Journal Blog.  Well, its Tuesday, and all I've seen is that Zach Berman's 9/3 post that he's happy he won't be trekking up and down I-81 anymore.  Bang up coverage as usual WP!

I know its easy to Monday Morning Quarterback the media (although it shouldn't be this easy).  Its also too easy to simply write a "Fire Groh" Post.  I won't rant too much about a game many of us are trying to simply eject from our consciousness as quickly as possible.  And really, there's not much to analyze - a team that had a lot more talent was outplayed in pretty much every aspect of the game by a team from a lower division - so maybe I'm being too hard on the media.  But ...

• As the old football saying goes, if you have two quarterbacks, you really have none. If you have three quarterbacks, well, you have a coach with ADD.  Don't tell me it was Gregg Brandon's idea to rotate three different kids at QB in his first game as OC.  And if it was, someone (i.e. the head coach) should have stopped him from doing it. 
• Vic Hall’s opening drive 34-yard touchdown scamper was breathtaking, but he appears to be a one-trick pony. Or at the very least the coaches think he is. He threw all of five passes at QB. If you don’t trust him to throw, Hall is the NFL version of a Wildcat QB. A nice change of pace, but not a QB. Stop pretending he is.
• But Hall wasn’t doing that badly, which made the switch to Sewell after all of three drives such a head-scratcher. The football gods immediately punished UVA for the change with a fumbled snap on Sewell’s first play. After that, it was vintage Sewell – a strike between coverage to Chris Byrd. Two plays later, he sailed a throw three feet over Byrd’s head to the other team. Get used to it folks. Sewell is the Hoos best chance at QB. But he is what he is – flashes of brilliance followed closely by complete exasperation.
• We’ll just pretend the desperation switch to Marc Verica in the fourth quarter didn’t happen, shall we? And hope it doesn’t happen again. I’m sure he’s a nice guy, but Verica should have joined the ranks Virginia QBs that never got in a game. The fact that he plays (and has even started games) is horrifying for a program that hopes to compete for conference titles.
• Mikell Simpson carried the ball five times for 32 yards, and caught six passes for 28 yards. I know a lot of those running yards were on one play late in the first half, but Simpson’s probably their best offensive player. Let’s get him the ball, not throw to receivers you or I couldn't pick out of a lineup.
• Is it possible – just possible – that they’re asking Hall to do too much? Not only does Hall have to learn a new offense, learn a new position, and split out wide at receiver every once in a while, but he also needs to return punts? Why exactly? Its hard to get mad at the kid when he’s asked to do that much, and then fumbles a punt. But very easy to get mad at the coaching staff that asks him to do it.
• The defense wasn’t as bad as the score indicated. It wasn’t good, mind you, against a 1-AA opponent, but not that bad. Redshirt freshman Steve Greer (10 tackles) used to be Jon Copper’s understudy; looks more like a clone to me. And a year after returning from academic suspension, Chris Cook looks like the best corner on the roster (yes, I’m looking at you Ras-I Dowling).
• Finally, another old football saying (one I happen to believe in) is that players take on the personality of their head coach.  Saturday's performance did not reflect well on the head coach.  The program's history under Groh says they will rebound, of course, but we're not sure that matters.  We suspect there will be ruminations all week about Groh's job status on one side, and attempts to rally the troops on the other.  Far from the discussion we thought we'd be having this week, huh?  Doesn't that tell you everything you need to know?

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The Search for a New Coach Started Sunday

William & Mary 26, Virginia 14

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Grohing Pains

Terry Holland once said that the best measure of a coach’s impact is the difference between what was and what is. He was talking, of course, of George Welsh, whose impact was easy enough to see: building a program from the rubble, a gleaming 60,000-seat stadium, near-perennial bowl trips and near-occasional contention for the ACC title.

Given how many people want Welsh’s successor fired, it’s time to ask the question of what, exactly, is Al Groh?

Is he a collection of alternating 5- and 9-win seasons? A series of great assistants and brain drain, rinse and repeat? Orange t-shirts and a traditional marching band? Christmastime in Charlotte or Boise in the good years? An endless supply of third down backs? A yearly beatdown by Tech?

More importantly, and this is the question not asked enough, is he the best we can do?
Probably, surprisingly, damningly, yes.

Look at the past five major coaching searches at Virginia and see how close it came to landing a big name or the kind of blue chip top assistant that is a surefire bet to succeed?

The searches replacing Holland, Jeff Jones, George Welsh, Pete Gillen and Dave Leitao had tons of fun rumors of a Tubby Smith or a pre-Georgia Mark Richt, some near-misses such as Rick Barnes, but really, the biggest “name” hires were Gillen and Groh; Gillen was coming off a pretty terrible season (he had lost a bunch of starters, I know, I know) and Groh’s 2000 Jets had collapsed after a 9-3 start to miss the playoffs, and nobody in New York seemed too upset he was gone (the Jets are cursed, I know, I know). But would you have imagined that Jerry Sandusky would have done much better over the past eight years? If Groh had gotten fired last winter, who would be coaching the Cavaliers right now?

Which makes UVa’s vague tolerance/hate relationship with Groh all the more depressing; it’s like a married couple that’s been together so long divorce seems like too much of an effort. The well’s been poisoned too much for any real reconciliation; it’s just a stalemate between Groh getting annoyed enough to quit or two losing seasons in a row providing Littlepage with enough cover to make what should be a bold decision look easy.

Groh’s not particularly likable, and he and Craig Littlepage have seemed somewhat callous in their treatment of a lot of things about Virginia football fans have liked (walking back to the tailgates at halftime, not going to games wearing gym clothes, having a pep band that served as a nice outlet for the “indoor kids,” having strained relationships with black quarterbacks over their “decision making,”) and running them into the ground. Creeping Big State U-ism indeed, only without the trips to the Peach Bowl.

And he loses games. Nonconference games. To teams Virginia conceivably should either not be playing or at the very least beating. Virginia fans can tolerate 3-5, 4-4, 5-3 ACC records, with upsets of Maryland and North Carolina paired with random chokejobs against NC State and at Georgia Tech to make the ride to the anonymous middle a little more of a roller coaster; that’s in our DNA at this point. But Western Michigan? East Carolina? Connecticut? Wyoming? All were good enough teams, don’t get me wrong, but remember when we used to lose to the likes of Auburn or even BYU? These were games nobody wanted to see, and certainly games nobody wanted to see Virginia lose. Remember when Virginia would split series with Auburn or BYU instead of UConn or Wyoming? Give me past national champions or I-AA teams; we can’t beat mediocre I-A teams with any consistency, so let’s get some starpower.

And there’s the off-the-field situations, and the seeming lack of a predictable standard applied to players’ transgressions; some are let go, some are welcomed back. This happened under Welsh too, of course, but rarely with such a lack of finesse as Groh and Littlepage displayed with the disposal of Peter Lalich.

Working under the assumption that a losing season spells the end of Groh’s tenure, what would keep him around? Six wins? Maybe, maybe not. Seven? Possibly, even probably---Virginia’s not really in a position to fire winning coaches. Eight? Without a doubt.

And thus the cycle would begin anew. What if Groh goes 5-7 in 2010? Another year, another shot at 7-5 redemption?

Perhaps the best thing Littlepage has done as AD was his firing of Leitao a year earlier than anyone thought, not giving him a chance at a NCAA first-round exit (in the best-case scenario) which would make him bulletproof for another year and stagnated UVa’s basketball program.

The awkward passivity of the annual December decision over whether to exercise one-year options on Groh’s contract years in advance creates no real answers or direction for the program. Even after that flukey ACC Coach of the Year nine-win year in 2007, Groh still only got a one-year bump, showing he has almost no leverage in the situation. It’s like Walter Aston’s 23 one-year contracts with the Dodgers, only the opposite. There’s no implicit loyalty here, other than Groh’s to the school. (This would be the rare turn of events which generated sympathy for Groh, except he really doesn’t have many other foreseeable options).

If a guy’s not your guy, he’s not your guy, and if that doesn’t have consequences immediately, it’s going to have them in the long run. Leitao wasn’t the guy. Groh likely isn’t either, and that’s as much a criticism of Littlepage than Groh that he’s still around with a relationship with the school and the fanbase that is in such disrepair.

Virginia needs to have the direction and (perhaps misplaced) confidence in itself as an institution to fire him almost regardless of what happens this year. It probably should have done it nine months ago. Continue reading this post...