From the Captain Obvious Department

As noted in our opening post, one of the things we're looking for here at the 7even Win Society is intelligent discussion of UVA sports. Judging from the Fourth Estate's coverage of Saturday's debacle against William & Mary, we're still looking.  A sampling (and these are the highlights people): 

• Kris Wright over at the Sabre thinks Saturday's loss is the last straw.  We agree, but as ACC COY noted last week, did we really need to wait for this?
• Jeff White blamed turnovers (seven is too much, eh?), and then played cheerleader.  I hope Jeff's experiment writing for Virginiasports.com isn't always just a cheerleading gig.
• The DP said the spread laid an egg.  Hootie gets a gold star for writing something at least somewhat insightful. 
• Doug Doughty ponders whether this was UVA's worst loss ever.  I really like Doug as a writer, but it seems to me he's always trying remind people how long he's been around.
• And Heather Dinich over at ESPN's new ACC Blog thinks UVA is looking at a possible 0-4 start.  Sorry Heather, we can peruse the schedule too, and we're more worried about something like 2-10.
• The Washington Post is trying to create a "turning point" for its coverage of UVA athletics by starting a Cavaliers Journal Blog.  Well, its Tuesday, and all I've seen is that Zach Berman's 9/3 post that he's happy he won't be trekking up and down I-81 anymore.  Bang up coverage as usual WP!

I know its easy to Monday Morning Quarterback the media (although it shouldn't be this easy).  Its also too easy to simply write a "Fire Groh" Post.  I won't rant too much about a game many of us are trying to simply eject from our consciousness as quickly as possible.  And really, there's not much to analyze - a team that had a lot more talent was outplayed in pretty much every aspect of the game by a team from a lower division - so maybe I'm being too hard on the media.  But ...

• As the old football saying goes, if you have two quarterbacks, you really have none. If you have three quarterbacks, well, you have a coach with ADD.  Don't tell me it was Gregg Brandon's idea to rotate three different kids at QB in his first game as OC.  And if it was, someone (i.e. the head coach) should have stopped him from doing it. 
• Vic Hall’s opening drive 34-yard touchdown scamper was breathtaking, but he appears to be a one-trick pony. Or at the very least the coaches think he is. He threw all of five passes at QB. If you don’t trust him to throw, Hall is the NFL version of a Wildcat QB. A nice change of pace, but not a QB. Stop pretending he is.
• But Hall wasn’t doing that badly, which made the switch to Sewell after all of three drives such a head-scratcher. The football gods immediately punished UVA for the change with a fumbled snap on Sewell’s first play. After that, it was vintage Sewell – a strike between coverage to Chris Byrd. Two plays later, he sailed a throw three feet over Byrd’s head to the other team. Get used to it folks. Sewell is the Hoos best chance at QB. But he is what he is – flashes of brilliance followed closely by complete exasperation.
• We’ll just pretend the desperation switch to Marc Verica in the fourth quarter didn’t happen, shall we? And hope it doesn’t happen again. I’m sure he’s a nice guy, but Verica should have joined the ranks Virginia QBs that never got in a game. The fact that he plays (and has even started games) is horrifying for a program that hopes to compete for conference titles.
• Mikell Simpson carried the ball five times for 32 yards, and caught six passes for 28 yards. I know a lot of those running yards were on one play late in the first half, but Simpson’s probably their best offensive player. Let’s get him the ball, not throw to receivers you or I couldn't pick out of a lineup.
• Is it possible – just possible – that they’re asking Hall to do too much? Not only does Hall have to learn a new offense, learn a new position, and split out wide at receiver every once in a while, but he also needs to return punts? Why exactly? Its hard to get mad at the kid when he’s asked to do that much, and then fumbles a punt. But very easy to get mad at the coaching staff that asks him to do it.
• The defense wasn’t as bad as the score indicated. It wasn’t good, mind you, against a 1-AA opponent, but not that bad. Redshirt freshman Steve Greer (10 tackles) used to be Jon Copper’s understudy; looks more like a clone to me. And a year after returning from academic suspension, Chris Cook looks like the best corner on the roster (yes, I’m looking at you Ras-I Dowling).
• Finally, another old football saying (one I happen to believe in) is that players take on the personality of their head coach.  Saturday's performance did not reflect well on the head coach.  The program's history under Groh says they will rebound, of course, but we're not sure that matters.  We suspect there will be ruminations all week about Groh's job status on one side, and attempts to rally the troops on the other.  Far from the discussion we thought we'd be having this week, huh?  Doesn't that tell you everything you need to know?

Continue reading this post...

Spread 101, Part IV: What Can Possiblie Go Wrong?

This is part four in a four-part series on UVA's introduction to the spread offense. Part I discussed general spread principles. Part II focuses on what the spread will look like at UVA based on the man brought in to run the spread -- former Bowling Green Head Coach and new Virginia OC Gregg Brandon. Part III focuses on whether Virginia has the pieces in place to adequately run the spread.  This final part focuses on the pitfalls that Virginia faces as it transitions to a new offense.

You put together a better offensive product with what has traditionally been a solid defense under Al Groh, and things just have to get better, right? Well, that’s the thinking. But its far from foolproof.  Why?

(1) This is the ACC, not the MAC. Clemson has been running the spread for years. Their success, with more talent than UVA will have on hand in 2009, was uneven at best and ultimately cost Tommy Bowden his job. We know the spread can succeed in any college football conference, but we don’t know if Gregg Brandon’s version can against an up-and-coming ACC.

(2) He’s a good cook, but not good at grocery-shopping. Brandon’s best season by far as a head coach was in 2003, his first year as head coach replacing Urban Meyer, when Brandon went 11-3. After that initial season, Brandon’s team slowly regressed -- 9-3 in 2004, 6-5 in 2005, 4-8 in 2006, rebounded somewhat in 2007 with an 8-5 record, before last year’s 6-6 campaign, Brandon’s last. Football is replete with examples of coaches coming in and winning with someone else’s players for a year before regressing back to the mean. As the players Meyer recruited slowly graduated from Bowling Green, Brandon’s fortunes faded. Since Groh’s no Urban Meyer in terms of recruiting, we don’t know if Brandon can run his system successfully without superior talent on hand.

(3) The Joe Gibbs Conundrum. Even if Brandon is up to the task, we don’t yet know if he’ll be allowed to run his offense as he sees fit. In January 2006, the Washington Redskins hired offensive guru Al Saunders to run their moribund offense. He was set to handle the play calling, and was going to bring the Redskins’ offense into the 21st century. The problem? Joe Gibbs wasn’t really on board with handing over full control. Now maybe Saunders never would have turned the offense around, but Gibbs never really gave him a chance. Gibbs meddled in play-calling, handcuffed Saunders at every turn, by November, with the team struggling, announced a return to “Redskin football.” Let’s hope history doesn’t repeat itself in Charlottesville under similar circumstances.

(4) Are the pieces in place for success in 2009? As we noted yesterday, the Cavs may not have all the pieces in place at QB and WR to run a successful spread offense in 2009. Vic Hall can run, but has thrown all of two passes at UVA. Marc Verica can throw, but is more or less a statue back there. Sewell shows flashes of the ability to do both, but I don’t trust him to throw the ball accurately more than 10 yards, do you? The Cavs also lost their top five pass catchers from 2008. To run the spread, you need at least three quality starters, and a herd of WRs to play. The Cavs have the latter. There is more than some question as to whether they have the former.

(5) Better Offense + Same Defense = Success? Seems simple enough. But with the no-huddle spread offense now being run in C’ville, the defense may be on field a lot more. For all the offense Brandon’s Bowling Green teams produced, his 2007 team, which went 8-5, actually gave up more yards than they gained. His 2008 team gave up 343 yards and 22 ppg. Of course, defense is Al Groh’s problem, not Brandon’s. But its entirely possible that the Cavs’ D will be on the field more often in 2009.  Whether that's a good thing or not is something that is not entirely clear.

Continue reading this post...

Spread 101, Part III: UVA's Personnel Match

This is part three in a four-part series on UVA's introduction to the spread offense. Part I discussed general spread principles. Part II focuses on what the spread will look like at UVA based on the man brought in to run the spread -- former Bowling Green Head Coach and new Virginia OC Gregg Brandon. Part III focuses on whether Virginia has the pieces in place to adequately run the spread.

Quarterbacks – As noted yesterday, new OC Gregg Brandon likes to run the football. As evidenced by his 109 yards rushing in the season file against Tech last year, Vic Hall can run the ball. But he’s thrown all of two passes in three years while playing for the orange and blue.  Most media reports, including the DP's latest, have Hall in the lead to start the season.

Can he handle it? Well, Hall did throw for 8,731 yards in high school, and led his team to back-to-back state championships as a QB. But there’s a reason Hall’s been playing cornerback the last three seasons. At 5-9, Hall may be too small to play QB at this level. Brandon admitted that's a problem, especially with an offensive line in front of him that averages 6-6. Brandon also said that Hall is still transitioning back to quarterback. 

The closest comparison to Hall’s situation is Marques Hagans, another vertically challenged QB, who led the Cavaliers to a pair of winning campaigns in 2004 and 2005. But Hagans had the benefit of something Hall doesn’t have on his side – time. After redshirting in 2001, Hagans briefly wrested the starting QB job from Matt Schaub in 2002, but he struggled in general and more specifically with getting balls batted back in his face. By week 3, Groh had turned back to 6-5 Schaub, who wouldn’t relinquish the job to Biscuit until he graduated at the end of the 2003 season. Just as it took a while for Hagans to adjust to the size at this level, it will take Hall time. But he’s a senior, not a red-shirt freshman.

Running Backs – Mikell Simpson was built for the spread. He’s never been the between-the-tackles bruiser Groh prefers, but with the formation spread, and running lanes open, look for Simpson to run wild at times this season, so long as he stays healthy. He’ll also have to improve his blocking, as its asked more of running backs in the spread offense.

Most likely behind Simpson is redshirt freshman Torrey Mack, another undersized but speedy tailback. But as Groh was quoted as saying in this notebook, Mack’s a little behind on pass protection.  The other competitors for PT – Keith Payne and Rashawn Jackson – are bruisers better suited to the 2008 version of the Cavaliers, but they’ll still see time in obvious blocking and short-yardage situations.

Wide Receivers – Kevin Ogletree picked a heck of a year to leave early just to go undrafted. We all hope he makes the Cowboys as an undrafted free-agent, but his departure leaves the receiving corps very young. Darrell’s son looks to be the most likely to make an impact after a solid redshirt freshman campaign. More than one Cavalier is likely to make a name for himself playing in this more wide-open style of offense, but if anyone tells you today they know who that’s going to be, they’re lying.

2009 will also likely mark the end, at least in the short term, of UVA as a TE factory. If they’re one of the top 4 receivers, and that’s entirely possible with the youth at WR, TEs will play.  Third-year man Joe Torchia seems the most likely to be poised for a breakout, but with a new system in place that emphasizes run after the catch, don’t hold your breath for one.

Offensive Line – a unit that returns four starters, this should be a strength coming into the 2009 season. They only surrendered 16 sacks as a unit. They’ll be running a very different offense in 2009, but expect this veteran group to handle it well. Whether the skill position players they’re blocking for do the same may be another matter. Continue reading this post...

Spread 101, Part II: The Gregg Brandon File

This is part two in a four-part series on UVA's introduction to the spread offense.  Part I discussed general spread principles.  Part II focuses on what the spread will look like at UVA based on the man brought in to run the spread -- former Bowling Green Head Coach and new Virginia OC Gregg Brandon.

What the spread offense looks like from team to team is like anything else: its dependent on the coach’s preference, and of course, personnel, specifically the QB you have. If you’re Oklahoma and have Sam Bradford or Texas Tech and you have someone like Graham Harrell, you’re throwing the ball 40 times a game. If you’re Florida and you have Tim Tebow or West Virginia and you have Pat White, you’re running more than you’re passing.

Well, Sam Bradford’s not walking through that door. Tim Tebow’s not walking through that door. Rather, one of Vic Hall, Jameel Sewell, or Marc Verica is walking through that door. I know, not exactly Montana v. Young, is it?

But most Virginia fans know what those QBs bring to the table. What will Brandon be looking for? As most people who have read anything about Brandon know, he succeeded Urban Meyer at Bowling Green when Meyer moved onto Utah after the 2002 season. Its dangerous to read too much into what Brandon did upon assuming head coaching duties from Meyer because he would have been doing it with Meyer’s players (more on that in Part IV on Thursday). But it is fair to look at what Brandon’s teams have done the past few seasons, when control (and the players) were all his.

In 2008, Bowling Green averaged just short of 360 yards per game (for comparison’s sake, Virginia averaged just under 300 ypg). The Falcons did average more yards passing than running (225 to 134). But its not cumulative yards that tell the story. Instead, its total plays, and specifically who’s number got called.

BG’s reading rusher in 2008 was QB Tyler Sheehan, who carried the ball 105 times for 457 yards. The Falcons also had two running backs that split about 15-20 carries a game. So despite playing out of the spread formation, Brandon’s 2008 BG team still ran the ball 20-25 times a game. They did pass too. But they spread it around (no pun intended). Ten different players had at least 10 catches on the season. Five had at least 22 catches. In total, however, Bowling Green ran 681 plays from scrimmage in 2008. 407 were runs. Only 274 were passes.

The result? Bowling Green scored at least 27 points in seven of twelve games in 2008 (for comparison’s sake, Virginia cracked 27 points only twice last season).

The Falcons were a little more pass-oriented in 2007. They averaged 278 yards passing to 123 rushing. But again, the Falcons were still run-dominant when it came to play-calling. In 2007, BG ran 750 plays from scrimmage: 418 were runs, 332 were passes.

The Falcons were even more run-dominant in 2006, when they ran a whopping 505 running plays to only 195 passing plays. Its also the only year in the last three that BG actually averaged more yards rushing than passing (176 to 167). They also finished 4-8, Brandon’s worst season as head coach for Bowling Green.

What does this all mean? Advantage Hall and Sewell; thanks for playing Marc Verica. Brandon clearly prefers the running spread model. That should only be reinforced by Al Groh‘s preference (regardless of what he says) for conservative offense. Of course, Brandon has said he can tweak the system to what he has at quarterback. But his preference appears to be towards the runner, and both Hall and Sewell are better runners than Verica is a passer.

So I’d expect about 20-25 rushes per game. Hall/Sewell about 10-15 carries each. Simpson (who should thrive under the spread formation if he can stay healthy) plus whoever wins the backup job getting another 10-15 carries. When Virginia does throw, expect it to be of the short variety, which makes sense in light of the inexperience of the receiving corps this season. And almost all of it will be done out of the no-huddle offense. A winning combination? Who knows. A more exciting UVa offense? Almost certainly. Continue reading this post...

Spread 101, Part I: Welcome to the Spread

The biggest storyline coming into the 2009 season is Virginia’s introduction to the Spread Offense. It hass taken decades for the Hoos to progress past an offense that ran off-tackle for four yards on 3rd & 6. OK, that’s not exactly true. As recently as 2003, Matt Schaub chucked the ball over 400 times in a single season (of course, those attempts were largely of the Ron Prince dink-and-dunk variety, but 400 attempts is 400 attempts). So Virginia hasn’t exactly been running the wishbone all these years. But it is fair to say, especially under Al Groh, that the offense has been often underwhelming, particularly when compared to a usually reliable defense.

So Virginia has taken the leap into the next big thing with the hiring of former Bowling Green Head Coach Gregg Brandon. Surely many Virginia fans have visions of four wide-receiver sets, lots of deep passing, and 49-42 games. Well, its not quite that simple.

What exactly will the spread look like? As Wikipedia tells us (and as Michael Scott will tell you, Wikipedia is the best thing ever), the spread the spread evolved from the run and shoot. ESPN traces it back to an Oregon high school coach. Both probably have a little bit of the truth.

But its an oversimplification to think that Virginia is going to turn into the early 1990s Houston Oilers. The spread is not the run-and-shoot. Its an evolution of the run-and-shoot. And even in its original form, the run-and-shoot was never predicated on the vertical passing game. Instead, it was based on spreading the defense horizontally. Making the defense defend not only the yardage between the line and scrimmage, but the 53 1/3 yards between the sidelines.

In terms of the college game, run and shoot principles have led two one of two general variations of the spread. The first looks a lot like the old run and shoot. Four or five wide receivers, passing on almost every down. But not vertical, deep passing. Rather, with only five blockers (six if a team leaves a back in to help block), teams that run the passing variation of the spread don’t have time to get the ball down the field. Instead, passing is predicated on hot routes, quick reads, and hitting receivers in stride to run free through spread out secondaries.

The second variation is more likely what Virginia will run under Brandon (more on that in Part II tomorrow). It still usually means four receivers, but teams that run this variation of the spread tend to run as much as, if not more than, they throw. That’s easier to do because of two things: (1) the defense is spread out to cover all those receivers (think of it as having a draw play option on every play); and (2) the return of the best athlete on the field playing QB, as it often happens in high school.

Surprisingly enough, former ND Coach Bob Davie had the best breakdown of this that I’ve found on the web. If you’re really into the Xs and Os, there’s a whole website committed to the spread offense and how to run it.

Who’s running the spread? Better to ask who isn't. Al Groh maintains that his teams have been moving towards the spread for years, 2009 will represent Virginia’s first true foray into the college offense of the 21st century. More on what that is likely to look like tomorrow. Continue reading this post...