Another 2nd Half Collapse

After Virginia's first two ballgames, one thing is absolutely crystal clear - Coach Bennett's efforts to temper expectations were not a case of sandbagging. If you read our fearless predictions, it's easy to see we at the Society bought into the excitement and promise of a new coach coming in to guide a team with the ACC freshman of the year and all five returning starters. With what appeared to be a decent and relatively talented foundation in place, surely Bennett was simply setting expectations low and under-promising in order to over deliver, or so we thought. It looks like that simply wasn't the case. The build-up to the season was exciting, but so much for the afterglow.

After an underwhelming and somewhat troubling win against Longwood, Virginia took on the University of South Florida last night and continued their complete incompetence in the Sunshine State (the Hoos last win there came during the 2000-2001 season when Roger Mason hit a last-second shot to down FSU). For the second straight game, Virginia posted another dismal second-half performance, and a four-point game at half time turned into a 17-point blowout. All night the offense was beyond anemic, and Virginia continues to work out the kinks with Bennett's new defensive system.

It's hard to win basketball games when you only score 49 points, and after only two games, some trends that plagued Virginia last year seem to be rearing their ugly heads again this season. The Hoos shot a woeful 32.7% from the field, and just like last year, finding offensive consistency from anyone not named Sylvan Landesburg proves challenging - even he struggled with just 2 points after the break. Sammy Zeglinski and Mustapha Farrakhan both posted nice outings in the opener against Longwood, and yet the two absolutely disappeared against the Bulls. The two combined for a mere 5 points on the night. Virginia fans truly want to believe Jeff Jones can and will begin to live up to the promise and expectations that once surrounded the highly-regarded recruit, but sadly, the wait continues. Once again the junior guard turned in a disappointing performance with 7 meaningless points all after USF had the game well in hand. While it's still very, very early, freshman Tristan Spurlock has shown no signs he will be able to contribute right away(or at least this year) - sure, there is still plenty of time, but Spurlock's first two games raise a slight cause for concern. Mike Scott failed to hit double-digits, yet, in his defense, with Virginia's front-court under-manned and under-sized, he simply couldn't do it all.

At first glance, 66 points doesn't seem like a horrendous defensive effort, and to some degree it wasn't. Bennett's defensive system is designed to make opposing teams shoot late in the shot clock, and thus, reduce their total number of shots. The fact USF shot over 53% from the field and eclipsed 45% from beyond the arc yet still only managed 66 points serves as evidence that part of the defensive scheme is taking hold. Of course, the other part is of the approach relies on defenders doing something, actually anything, to disrupt shots and keep shooting percentages far south of 50%. So far it seems as if UVa has yet to grasp that crucial element of Bennett's defensive philosophy.

The absence of Assane Sene and Jamil Tucker is likely partially to blame for Virginia's inability to keep South Florida's shooting percentage in check as the big men played well for the Bulls. Foward/Centers August Gilchrist and Jarrid Famous put up 18 and 12 respectively. In addition, both nabbed 8 rebounds a piece helping USF post a 33-21 advantage on the boards. To a large degree, a scoring and rebounding disparity was a bit expected given Virginia's thin front-court, yet that made shutting down the guards (specifically their go-to guy Dominique Jones) all the more important. Sadly, he dropped a game-high 22.

Coach Bennett harps on the idea that it is going to take time to get his system totally in place (that includes getting guys who can play his style). Sure, his approach is different and will take some time, but asking basketball players to play a different brand of defense is not quite the same as asking Gaylord Focker and a bunch of his male nurse friends to become heart surgeons. Fundamentally, several key defensive principles always apply. Even if it is a case where the players concentrate so hard to correctly execute Bennett's new defense that is causes lapses in more fundamental areas, getting that fixed only solves half the problem. Like last season, Virginia still can't find players able to step up on offense and produce night in and night out (Landesburg excluded). Without a doubt it was fun getting caught up in the hype and optimism prior to the season, but after two games, it's starting to look like maybe the players aren't the only ones still trying to learn Bennett's approach. It appears he wasn't bluffing when he warned that turning the program around was a true work in progress. Maybe there's still hope he overestimated the timetable.


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A Mixed Start

I'm sure many of us would have liked to have seen the first game of the Tony Bennett era.  Alas, games against Longwood don't move the meter.  Thankfully, even with new paper budgets shrinking everywhere, a few brave souls were there too tell us a bit about the Hoos' opening night 85-72 win.

Virginia closed the first half on a 27-9 run to take a 49-27 lead into halftime, and the issue was never really in doubt.  But the second half was a bit disconcerting, with Longwood shooting 55% and getting as close as nine.  With every quote, Bennett appears to be tempering expectations - is it too late to revise my fearless prediction?

As Bennett promised, the offense did not hold the ball.  Virginia started four guards, and got a nice lift from Mustapha Farrakhan.  Freshman Jontel Evens played 20 minutes off the bench, impressing Bennett with his on-the-ball defense and ball-handling.  Could be nice complement to Smmy Zieglinski.  The other freshman - Tristan Spurlock - played only three minutes.

But playing small ball without C Assane Sene and F Jamil Tucker (who were both on the bench in street clothes), a pair of Longwood big men abused the Cavs' D on 14-18 shooting.  That will be even more of a problem against upcoming Big East foe S. Florida.

In other news, Bennett spoke highly of his incoming recruiting class (would have been nice to land top PG prospect and O'Connell product Kendall Marshall, but that was probably a pipe-dream).  Continue reading this post...

Fearless Predictions - Hoops Edition

As we've already noted, the national media isn't too peachy on Virginia hoops this season.  As part of the annual ACC media poll, Virginia was picked 11th.  Collegehoops.net has an interesting high-low projection, picking Virginia to finish anywhere from 7th to 12, but ultimately peg the Cavs at 10th.  Baseball Prospectus' little brother is a little more optimistic, predicting Virginia to finish 8-8 in the ACC, as noted over at the Sabre.  I share BP's optimism.  My colleagues, not so much, although they certainly have more than the national media.  Our predictions are after the jump.  Feel free to chime in with your own in the comments section.  The schedule can be found here.


red4z: As I’m already on the record as saying, 2009-10 will be a turnaround team for Virginia basketball. For all the flack Dave Leitao took for his lack of recruiting acumen, he doesn’t leave the cupboard bare for the incoming Tony Bennett. And unlike football, the administration didn't wait one year too long to pull the plug on a coach that needed to go.

There are few things I expect immediately with Coach Bennett taking the reins. First, no more embarrassing losses. He’s too good a coach, and his teams are characteristically too disciplined for a slip up. So no more losses to Liberty. Second, an established player rotation. As a former NBA player, Bennett understands the importance of everyone knowing their roles. A few players will invariably be left without minutes in the process, but that’s better than players looking over to the bench for the hook every time they make a mistake. Finally, Bennett is a player’s coach. Expect a few guys who wilted under Leitao’s in your face style to flourish under a new voice. Jeff Jones, I’m looking in your direction.

The Hoos will surprise throughout their pre-conference schedule. They’ll drop a game to a loaded Kentucky squad (say hello to John Wall) in Cancun, but will steal a road win at South Florida or Auburn. And the Hoos will take care of business against Penn St. in the ACC Invitational (better known as the ACC/Big Ten Challenge). The Hoos will enter conference play unranked, but 11-2 and people will be wondering just how good they are.

Virginia is well-positioned to start strong in ACC play, and in general. The Cavs open at NC State, home to GT and Miami, at WF, and at home to Va. Tech. They also get UNC and Duke only once each. Its too early to expect wins against those traditional powers, but the Hoos will break through against the ACC’s second tier. My heart says 9-7; my head says 8-8. Either way, without a true marquee win, Virginia is left out of the dance. Disappointing at the time, but in the big picture, a successful first season for Bennett.  Prediction: 19-10, 8-8. NIT berth.

cjhoo99: The energy of a new head man, the opportunities that accompany change, and the benefits of new schemes often produce some sort of positive results in year one. Certainly the idea is for the momentum of the first year to carry forward to years two, three, and four, yet, for whatever reason, that part of the puzzle seems to have eluded Virginia’s last two previous basketball coaches. Without a doubt, Hoo fans would like new headman Tony Bennett to find a way to break the recent trend plaguing UVa’s basketball program while still maintaining a little of that “beginner’s luck.” On paper at least it appears modest improvement over the complete debacle that was last season proves well within reason.

Virginia’s non-conference schedule proves very reasonable. If Bennett’s defensive system takes hold early, that should help keep some member of the opposing team from setting a new career-best in scoring against the Cavs (something that happened far too often under both Gillen and Leitao). By simply minimizing the bad losses that have been commonplace in recent years, the Hoos should finish the non-conference portion of the schedule at no worse than 8-5. If everything falls into place early on, it’s not completely inconceivable that Virginia travels to Raleigh sitting at 11-2, and should be 10-3 starting conference play.

Virginia plays a home and home series with N.C. State, Maryland, Va Tech, and Miami, and winning six of those eight games is not out of the question – that means the Hoos sweep either the Wolfpack or Miami while splitting with Maryland and Va. Tech. Certainly possible. An upset over Ga. Tech at home (second ACC game) or Wake Forest could be in the cards, and a road win over either Clemson or Boston College can’t be ruled out. Heck, even a shocker over Duke is not impossible – the Blue Devils tend to bring out the best in Virginia, especially in C’ville. Going .500 in the ACC would be a minor miracle while anything below 5-11 would prove disappointing.

A trip to the Big Dance seems a bit unlikely, though an NIT birth represents a reasonable goal. Getting back to post-season play (the CBI or any other b-grade tourney excluded) would certainly be a nice start to the Bennett era. Prediction: 17-12, 7-9, NIT berth.

ACC COY: Virginia has a new coach with a better system but still does not have very many good players. It's reasonable enough that if the players buy into Bennett's system and work hard, they can surprise a few teams, particularly at home, on the first leg of the home-and-homes. I doubt, however, that they would be able to beat many decent teams on the road, particularly when the opponent has already seen them once or has sufficient tape. Since the ACC is filled with decent to good teams, this is probably going to be a long season for the Wahoos.

I'd guess 6-10 in the ACC, with one or two big upsets and a growing reputation as a tough out, particularly in JPJ. Maybe one win in the ACC tournament, and all that is possibly enough to get into the NIT, which I think should be considered a major accomplishment considering how bare the cupboard is.

This isn't like Pete Gillen inheriting three bona fide ACC players in Adam Hall, Chris Williams and Donald Hand,* or Leitao getting JR and Sean Singletary. Virginia has exactly one legitimate top-shelf ACC player in Sylven, and maybe another two or three other guys that would be rotation regulars in a good ACC lineup. If this team even gets a sniff at .500 in the conference, Tony Bennett should hit Littlepage up for a 10-year extension with an extensive buyout. Prediction: 16-13, 6-10, NIT Berth.

*---I doubt anyone expected those three to be as good as they were, but doesn't it strike you in retrospect how for two years Virginia had a starting lineup of Williams, Hall, Hand, Watson and Mason (not to mention brief flashes of Mapp and some other guys), all of whom had legitimate professional careers in the minors, overseas or in the NBA, and never won a tournament game? Astounding. What would you give for that rotation right now? If Majestic Mapp does not hurt his knee, you have to figure they make it to the Sweet 16 at least once, right? Wow.

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Thank God for Hoops Season

Amidst what appears to be another meh football campaign, buzz has been building all fall for the start of hoops season, which for true junkies starts Friday with the beginning of practice.  The buzz surrounding Virginia, of course, begins and ends with new coach Tony Bennett, the latest coaching savior brought over from a major conference school (albeit a lower tier school in said conference) to bring the Hoos back to the level they were in the 80s and early 90s under Terry Holland and, for a time, Jeff Jones. 

This is nothing new, of course.  The same buzz surrounded the fast-talking Pete Gillen and "we're going to play the right way" Calhoun-disciple Dave Leitao.  Anyone that tells you the buzz is any greater this time around is lying (and anyone that tells you that they're glad Virginia at least didn't go the mid-major route again is an idiot, since Gillen and Leitao came via the Big East from Providence and DePaul respectively).  Still, that hasn't stopped the Fourth Estate from the obligatory renewed optimism and different feel pieces in advance of the season.

We've also seen a number of pieces praising Bennett's superior recruiting efforts, here and here for example.  But let's not shortchange his predecessors, although it was popular to do so while they were here.  Leitao brought in, just last season, consensus top-25 prospect Sylven Landesberg, top-100 center Jon Brandenburg, and another highly-sought after big man (just ask UConn fans in particular) Assane Sene.  Before that, Leitao landed a highly-praised 2007 class, highlighted by top-100 guard Jeff Jones and in-state get Mike Scott.  Leitao also lined up top-100 SF Tristan Spurlock before he left.

My point is not relitigate the decision to fire Leitao (a decision I agreed with), or to caution against crowning Bennett as a crackerjack recruiter just yet based on getting LOIs from five kids, only two of which are top-100 players (but let's keep it in perspective, OK?).   

No, the point is that the cupboard is not exactly bare in Charlottesville.  So its possible, and maybe even likely, that Bennett will be able to avoid the obligatory rebuilding year that Gillen experienced in 1998-99, when he famously held open tryouts in his first season to fill out the roster (remember Raleigh "the Bartender" Harbour) and went 14-16, or that Leitao experienced in 2005-06, when he only had seven scholarship players and went 15-15.  Instead, Bennett should be able to skip right ahead to the second-year surge (like when Gillen finished 19-12 and just missed the tourney, or Leitao went 21-11 and didn't).  Both were based, in larger part for Leitao, on inheirited players (Leitao inheirited Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds from Gillen, just as Gillen benefitted from Jones-recruits Chris Williams and Adam Hall).  Even more than Gillen or Leitao, Bennett will benefit from the recruiting fruits of his predecessor.  He'll have five returning starters, including an all-ACC performer in Landesberg, a double-double machine in Mike Scott, and number of potentially emerging talents in SG Jeff Jones, PG Sammy Zieglinski, and C Assane Sene.  The only "meaningful" loss from last year's roster is Mamadi Diane, who averaged all of six points per game and was puzzlingly pulled in and out of the lineup by Leitao, and he should be easly replaced in the rotation by Spurlock. 

So if he can coach, and he won in Pullman, WA, a dumptruck of a college basketball town, so you know he can coach, things should get interesting, and exciting, real fast this season.  I'm reserving judgment on whether Bennett is the right fit long term (remember that Gillen and Leitao also spiked early in their careers, but couldn't continue the momentum).  But you should feel free to ignore early season prodictions of gloom for Virginia, like here for example, and those that are likely to come in the near future from the national media.  The Hoos will be good, and should contend for an NCAA bid this season.  Just remember that you heard it here first. 

And then, like I said, thank God for hoops season.   Continue reading this post...

Congratulations, You're Still a Basketball Conference

When the Cavaliers make this weekend's trip down to Chapel Hill, you know as a football fan that the Tar Heels return trip won't occur until next season.  And that's OK, its the nature of football scheduling.  But it reminds me that when the basketball team makes a similar trip in late January, UNC will, as in football, not be making the return trip until the following season.  Similarly, Duke will be gracing the confines of the JPJ this season, but there will be no return trip to Cameron until 2011.  It begs the question -- we're giving that up for what exactly?

Six years ago, the Atlantic Coast Conference expanded its membership to twelve teams.  In came Miami, Virginia Tech, and (out of left field) Boston College.  The idea was to make the ACC a major football conference, complete with large TV contract, annual conference championship game, and more BCS bowl game appearances.  There were rumblings from the likes of Mike Krzyzewski and Gary Williams that it would be bad for the gold standard that is ACC Basketball, but after college presidents reminded them who paid their checks those criticisms largely fell by the wayside. 

Expectations were that this might finally be the year that the ACC lived up to that master plan.  Four teams cracked the Preseason AP Top 25, and a number of other programs, including Clemson and the U, were supposed to make strides back towards respectability.  It was thought that 2009 at least had to be better than 2008, when mediocrity reigned.  No ACC team finished better than 5-3 in the conference, a four-loss Va. Tech team went to the Orange Bowl, and a 7-5 Clemson team went to the Gator.  

It hasn't happened.  On opening weekend, Alabama ran over Virginia Tech, Cal thumped Maryland, and perennial Big 12 Doormat Baylor beat Wake Forest.  And that wasn't even the worst of it.  Duke and Virginia (as we all remember) lost to 1-AA teams.  It hasn't gotten better since Week 1.  Mountain West stalwart TCU now has a pair of road wins against ACC teams on its resume.  Maryland lost (again) to Middle Tennessee State.  Florida State was dropped by S. Fla. over the weekend.  And after all the noise about Miami's revival, it appears they were just beating up on fellow ACC weaklings in light of Va. Tech's demolition of the Canes this past weekend. 

So on January 5, 2010, some middling ACC team, who will have won a conference championship game that won't come close to selling out, will get to play the Big East Champion or an at-large opponent in a meaningless bowl game.  And seven or eight other schools will get to go to contracted bowls too, all the way down to the Eagle Bank Bowl in D.C.  College athletic departments will rake in more money, and the ACC can call itself a football conference when it goes 4-4 in bowl play (even though two or three of those wins will come against MAC teams or service academies). And everyone can look forward to next football season, when the U might really be back, or Florida State might return to national prominence, or Butch Davis might complete the turnaround in Chapel Hill, or Va. Tech might stay healthy.    

Among all those mights, Sylven Landesberg will be looking forward to what might be his only trip to the cathedral that is the Dean Dome, or preparing for what might be his one chance to help vanquish Duke on his team's home floor.  Of course, he'll get to play Virginia Tech, Maryland, N.C. State, and Miami twice each this season.  I'm sure that's the ACC Basketball he was looking forward to when he signed his LOI.  But hey, Wake Forest might get to play football in D.C. in December.   

So again I ask, the ACC did this for what exactly? Continue reading this post...