Wishful Thinking

Yesterday's argument was that a win against Boston College could help provide a shred of hope, and from a statistical standpoint (especially in conference), a victory over the Eagles would help tell the story of progress. Desperate times call for desperate measures, and that includes changing perspective in order to find or even manufacture a silver lining. Unfortunately, the lowered expectations and new focus were not met with different results. Last night the Hoos dropped their eighth straight contest - a 68-55 loss to BC. Once again the Hoos fell behind early and never recovered - talking about this squad is really starting to sound like a broken record. It's the same stuff night in and night out.

• Welcome back Mike Scott. After getting blanked the last two games, Scott finally showed up and nearly posted a double double. Sylven Landesburg also returned to action and notched 13 points as well. Jerome Meyinsse, as he has done all season, played beyond expectations and chipped in 12 points. So, those three accounted for 70% of Virginia's 55 total points. That's not enough offensive distribution to be competitive. Sammy Zeglinksi missed every shot he took, ended the night with a goose egg and has all but disappeared. Same goes for Jeff Jones. Mustapha Farrakhan notched 8 points, and normally that would be a respectable contribution, but when nobody else shows up, it's far too little.
• Houston, we have a problem. Losing eight straight is no small feat and there is no doubt something has gone terribly wrong with this squad. Blame it on lack of overall talent, chemistry problems, fatigue, transition to a new system, or whatever else you want to identify, but regardless of the causes, it's getting ridiculous. The wheels have fallen off and now the Cavs can't even manage to dig deep and find enough pride to be competitive against (let alone beat) another ACC bottom feeder.
• Chalk this season up as a loss in the name of change - at least, that's what Hoos fans hope to be saying 2-3 years from now if and when the program has once again become competitive. At this point, Virginia is staring at the real possibility of finishing the season on a 10-game losing streak, which will make it difficult to discern much of anything from this season. Finding true signs of lasting progress, wholesale change, or the building of a foundation for success still remains a big question mark.
• This summer is shaping up to be just as full of intrigue as last summer. Questions abound regarding freshman Tristan Spurlock, and the recent commitment from Billy Baron only adds fuel to the fire. Six commits with only five available scholarships means something has got to give - will Spurlock transfer, is Landesburg bolting for the NBA, or are all of the recent lineup changes not our of sheer desperation, but instead, Bennett's way of having everyone tryout/audition for their scholarship. Hoo knows, but at this point, it appears there are just as many questions after Bennett's first year as there were last summer when he was entering his first year in C'ville. Ideally things should start (even if in only small ways) to be coming together instead of becoming more unsettled.....again, maybe you have to deconstruct this thing and build it back up in order to accomplish real change.
  

Oh the life of a Virginia hoops fan......are we having fun yet? Continue reading this post...

Another 2nd Half Collapse

After Virginia's first two ballgames, one thing is absolutely crystal clear - Coach Bennett's efforts to temper expectations were not a case of sandbagging. If you read our fearless predictions, it's easy to see we at the Society bought into the excitement and promise of a new coach coming in to guide a team with the ACC freshman of the year and all five returning starters. With what appeared to be a decent and relatively talented foundation in place, surely Bennett was simply setting expectations low and under-promising in order to over deliver, or so we thought. It looks like that simply wasn't the case. The build-up to the season was exciting, but so much for the afterglow.

After an underwhelming and somewhat troubling win against Longwood, Virginia took on the University of South Florida last night and continued their complete incompetence in the Sunshine State (the Hoos last win there came during the 2000-2001 season when Roger Mason hit a last-second shot to down FSU). For the second straight game, Virginia posted another dismal second-half performance, and a four-point game at half time turned into a 17-point blowout. All night the offense was beyond anemic, and Virginia continues to work out the kinks with Bennett's new defensive system.

It's hard to win basketball games when you only score 49 points, and after only two games, some trends that plagued Virginia last year seem to be rearing their ugly heads again this season. The Hoos shot a woeful 32.7% from the field, and just like last year, finding offensive consistency from anyone not named Sylvan Landesburg proves challenging - even he struggled with just 2 points after the break. Sammy Zeglinski and Mustapha Farrakhan both posted nice outings in the opener against Longwood, and yet the two absolutely disappeared against the Bulls. The two combined for a mere 5 points on the night. Virginia fans truly want to believe Jeff Jones can and will begin to live up to the promise and expectations that once surrounded the highly-regarded recruit, but sadly, the wait continues. Once again the junior guard turned in a disappointing performance with 7 meaningless points all after USF had the game well in hand. While it's still very, very early, freshman Tristan Spurlock has shown no signs he will be able to contribute right away(or at least this year) - sure, there is still plenty of time, but Spurlock's first two games raise a slight cause for concern. Mike Scott failed to hit double-digits, yet, in his defense, with Virginia's front-court under-manned and under-sized, he simply couldn't do it all.

At first glance, 66 points doesn't seem like a horrendous defensive effort, and to some degree it wasn't. Bennett's defensive system is designed to make opposing teams shoot late in the shot clock, and thus, reduce their total number of shots. The fact USF shot over 53% from the field and eclipsed 45% from beyond the arc yet still only managed 66 points serves as evidence that part of the defensive scheme is taking hold. Of course, the other part is of the approach relies on defenders doing something, actually anything, to disrupt shots and keep shooting percentages far south of 50%. So far it seems as if UVa has yet to grasp that crucial element of Bennett's defensive philosophy.

The absence of Assane Sene and Jamil Tucker is likely partially to blame for Virginia's inability to keep South Florida's shooting percentage in check as the big men played well for the Bulls. Foward/Centers August Gilchrist and Jarrid Famous put up 18 and 12 respectively. In addition, both nabbed 8 rebounds a piece helping USF post a 33-21 advantage on the boards. To a large degree, a scoring and rebounding disparity was a bit expected given Virginia's thin front-court, yet that made shutting down the guards (specifically their go-to guy Dominique Jones) all the more important. Sadly, he dropped a game-high 22.

Coach Bennett harps on the idea that it is going to take time to get his system totally in place (that includes getting guys who can play his style). Sure, his approach is different and will take some time, but asking basketball players to play a different brand of defense is not quite the same as asking Gaylord Focker and a bunch of his male nurse friends to become heart surgeons. Fundamentally, several key defensive principles always apply. Even if it is a case where the players concentrate so hard to correctly execute Bennett's new defense that is causes lapses in more fundamental areas, getting that fixed only solves half the problem. Like last season, Virginia still can't find players able to step up on offense and produce night in and night out (Landesburg excluded). Without a doubt it was fun getting caught up in the hype and optimism prior to the season, but after two games, it's starting to look like maybe the players aren't the only ones still trying to learn Bennett's approach. It appears he wasn't bluffing when he warned that turning the program around was a true work in progress. Maybe there's still hope he overestimated the timetable.


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Thank God for Hoops Season

Amidst what appears to be another meh football campaign, buzz has been building all fall for the start of hoops season, which for true junkies starts Friday with the beginning of practice.  The buzz surrounding Virginia, of course, begins and ends with new coach Tony Bennett, the latest coaching savior brought over from a major conference school (albeit a lower tier school in said conference) to bring the Hoos back to the level they were in the 80s and early 90s under Terry Holland and, for a time, Jeff Jones. 

This is nothing new, of course.  The same buzz surrounded the fast-talking Pete Gillen and "we're going to play the right way" Calhoun-disciple Dave Leitao.  Anyone that tells you the buzz is any greater this time around is lying (and anyone that tells you that they're glad Virginia at least didn't go the mid-major route again is an idiot, since Gillen and Leitao came via the Big East from Providence and DePaul respectively).  Still, that hasn't stopped the Fourth Estate from the obligatory renewed optimism and different feel pieces in advance of the season.

We've also seen a number of pieces praising Bennett's superior recruiting efforts, here and here for example.  But let's not shortchange his predecessors, although it was popular to do so while they were here.  Leitao brought in, just last season, consensus top-25 prospect Sylven Landesberg, top-100 center Jon Brandenburg, and another highly-sought after big man (just ask UConn fans in particular) Assane Sene.  Before that, Leitao landed a highly-praised 2007 class, highlighted by top-100 guard Jeff Jones and in-state get Mike Scott.  Leitao also lined up top-100 SF Tristan Spurlock before he left.

My point is not relitigate the decision to fire Leitao (a decision I agreed with), or to caution against crowning Bennett as a crackerjack recruiter just yet based on getting LOIs from five kids, only two of which are top-100 players (but let's keep it in perspective, OK?).   

No, the point is that the cupboard is not exactly bare in Charlottesville.  So its possible, and maybe even likely, that Bennett will be able to avoid the obligatory rebuilding year that Gillen experienced in 1998-99, when he famously held open tryouts in his first season to fill out the roster (remember Raleigh "the Bartender" Harbour) and went 14-16, or that Leitao experienced in 2005-06, when he only had seven scholarship players and went 15-15.  Instead, Bennett should be able to skip right ahead to the second-year surge (like when Gillen finished 19-12 and just missed the tourney, or Leitao went 21-11 and didn't).  Both were based, in larger part for Leitao, on inheirited players (Leitao inheirited Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds from Gillen, just as Gillen benefitted from Jones-recruits Chris Williams and Adam Hall).  Even more than Gillen or Leitao, Bennett will benefit from the recruiting fruits of his predecessor.  He'll have five returning starters, including an all-ACC performer in Landesberg, a double-double machine in Mike Scott, and number of potentially emerging talents in SG Jeff Jones, PG Sammy Zieglinski, and C Assane Sene.  The only "meaningful" loss from last year's roster is Mamadi Diane, who averaged all of six points per game and was puzzlingly pulled in and out of the lineup by Leitao, and he should be easly replaced in the rotation by Spurlock. 

So if he can coach, and he won in Pullman, WA, a dumptruck of a college basketball town, so you know he can coach, things should get interesting, and exciting, real fast this season.  I'm reserving judgment on whether Bennett is the right fit long term (remember that Gillen and Leitao also spiked early in their careers, but couldn't continue the momentum).  But you should feel free to ignore early season prodictions of gloom for Virginia, like here for example, and those that are likely to come in the near future from the national media.  The Hoos will be good, and should contend for an NCAA bid this season.  Just remember that you heard it here first. 

And then, like I said, thank God for hoops season.   Continue reading this post...