Actually, that's three times in four years. Not usually good for one's job security. Has anyone thought about replacing the coach?
Game of inches was a popular media theme -- here and here for example. Although let's not be melodramatic about it, fellas (and I don't mean to pick on these two particular stories -- it was a common refrain from pretty much every media outlet covering the game). Virginia's bowl hopes were extinguished well before Jameel Sewell came up inches short at the BC 12 on fourth down. You see this team winning at Clemson and against Virignia Tech? Yeah, me neither.
Tip of the cap nonetheless to Sewell, who played hurt in the absence of Marc Verica. As we've said in this space before, Sewell has his flaws, but he's always given Virginia its best chance to win. He did so again on Saturday.
And the defense, once again, almost made another impotent offensive showing stand up. Chris Cook got Virginia on the board with an int return for TD to tie the game, and then the D stopped the Eagles three and out to set up a FG that briefly gave the Hoos a 10-7 lead. And last week we asked who would stand out as the Cavs played out the string. LB Billy Shautz raised his hand, registering his first career sack as well as a tackle for loss.
Nonetheless, that defense succumbed in much the same way it has a number of times this season - when a team committed to running it down their throats, the Hoos couldn't stop them. BC marched 70 yards in 12 plays to start the fourth quarter. 10 of the Eagles' 12 plays on that decisive drive were runs, culminating in a gutsy fourth and goal run that just snuck the ball over the line (yes, by inches, we get it).
In any event, the inches don't matter anymore to this group, except to figure out how many inches outside the hole a putt might be sometime in December. It will be interesting to see who else, like Shautz, stands up and makes himself noticed as the team plays out the string.
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I'm sure many of us would have liked to have seen the first game of the Tony Bennett era. Alas, games against Longwood don't move the meter. Thankfully, even with new paper budgets shrinking everywhere, a few brave souls were there too tell us a bit about the Hoos' opening night 85-72 win.
Virginia closed the first half on a 27-9 run to take a 49-27 lead into halftime, and the issue was never really in doubt. But the second half was a bit disconcerting, with Longwood shooting 55% and getting as close as nine. With every quote, Bennett appears to be tempering expectations - is it too late to revise my fearless prediction?
As Bennett promised, the offense did not hold the ball. Virginia started four guards, and got a nice lift from Mustapha Farrakhan. Freshman Jontel Evens played 20 minutes off the bench, impressing Bennett with his on-the-ball defense and ball-handling. Could be nice complement to Smmy Zieglinski. The other freshman - Tristan Spurlock - played only three minutes.
But playing small ball without C Assane Sene and F Jamil Tucker (who were both on the bench in street clothes), a pair of Longwood big men abused the Cavs' D on 14-18 shooting. That will be even more of a problem against upcoming Big East foe S. Florida.
In other news, Bennett spoke highly of his incoming recruiting class (would have been nice to land top PG prospect and O'Connell product Kendall Marshall, but that was probably a pipe-dream).
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The wonder of sports is that hope forever springs eternal. There's always next year. We're not quite there yet, but rather than talk about Virginia's matchup with 6-3 BC, or how few people will attend the Hoos' likely bowl-busting game, I'm already looking towards 2010, and the players that will be in place then. Something (and some names) to keep an eye on if you have any stomach left to watch the 2009 version of the Hoos.
Running Backs: Despite the departure of bruiser Rashawn Jackson, Virginia is well-stocked in the backfield for next season. Mikell Simpson returns for one more season, and Dominique Wallace should be back to full health, hopefully with four more years of eligibility to burn. Torrey Mack, of which more was probably expected this season, also returns with three years of eligibility remaining.
Wide Receivers: What Virginia lacks in obvious quality, they make up for in quantity here. Kris Burd, Jared Green, Javaris Brown, and Tim Smith all return next season. Look for one or two of them to finally distinguish themselves from the pack towards the end of this season. TEs Joe Torchia and Colter Phillips will also be back for whatever coach (and new system) is employed.
O-line: Will Barker graduates. That's it. With four starters returning, the Hoos should be solid up front. We just hope they work on their pass protection skills during the offseason.
QB: The pink elephant in the room. Despite having enough pieces everywhere else on offense for next season, both Jameel Sewell and Vic Hall are out of eligibility. That leaves would-be senior Marc Verica and now-redshirt freshman Riko Smalls as one-two on the depth chart. I'm sure I'm not the only one who shuddered as I read that.
D-Line: Like the o-line, the defense loses one of its most valuable pieces in Nate Collins. But starters Matt Conrath and Nick Jenkins return, along with Zane Parr and true freshman Will Hill ready to step in for Collins. Should again be a position of strength for the Hoos.
Linebackers: The Hoos will lose three seniors, two of them starters. But arguably the two most important pieces, Steve Greer and Cam Johnson, return. Greer, like his predecessor Jon Copper, may need a caddy on passing downs, but he's the backbone of the Hoos' defense. Johnson should continue to blossom into a pass rusher good enough to play on Sundays. However, beyond those two standouts, its unclear among the three freshman listed on the depth chart (Schautz, McCartin, and Windle) who will fill out the starting lineup.
Secondary: Other than QB, this is the position that will take the biggest beating headed into 2010. CB Chris Cook and S Brandon Woods graduate, along with sometimes CB Vic Hall, and its entirely possible Jr. CB Ras-I Dowling decides he's had enough and enters the draft a year early. There's some depth here -- Chase Minnifield should reenter the mix at CB he was in before Cook was reinstated, and Corey Moseley should be able to step in nicely for Woods. But its hard to imagine the biggest strength of this team won't take a step back in 2010.
So there you have it. There are probably less question marks headed into 2010 than there were headed into this season, but the Hoos will have a big question mark at the most important position on the field. We wouldn't expect Groh to start playing for 2010, whether his job were on the line or not, but since he's playing everyone anyway, eligibility be damned, we might as well keep an eye out for what we have in 2010. Enjoy the game (if you can).
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As we've already noted, the national media isn't too peachy on Virginia hoops this season. As part of the annual ACC media poll, Virginia was picked 11th. Collegehoops.net has an interesting high-low projection, picking Virginia to finish anywhere from 7th to 12, but ultimately peg the Cavs at 10th. Baseball Prospectus' little brother is a little more optimistic, predicting Virginia to finish 8-8 in the ACC, as noted over at the Sabre. I share BP's optimism. My colleagues, not so much, although they certainly have more than the national media. Our predictions are after the jump. Feel free to chime in with your own in the comments section. The schedule can be found here.
red4z: As I’m already on the record as saying, 2009-10 will be a turnaround team for Virginia basketball. For all the flack Dave Leitao took for his lack of recruiting acumen, he doesn’t leave the cupboard bare for the incoming Tony Bennett. And unlike football, the administration didn't wait one year too long to pull the plug on a coach that needed to go.
There are few things I expect immediately with Coach Bennett taking the reins. First, no more embarrassing losses. He’s too good a coach, and his teams are characteristically too disciplined for a slip up. So no more losses to Liberty. Second, an established player rotation. As a former NBA player, Bennett understands the importance of everyone knowing their roles. A few players will invariably be left without minutes in the process, but that’s better than players looking over to the bench for the hook every time they make a mistake. Finally, Bennett is a player’s coach. Expect a few guys who wilted under Leitao’s in your face style to flourish under a new voice. Jeff Jones, I’m looking in your direction.
The Hoos will surprise throughout their pre-conference schedule. They’ll drop a game to a loaded Kentucky squad (say hello to John Wall) in Cancun, but will steal a road win at South Florida or Auburn. And the Hoos will take care of business against Penn St. in the ACC Invitational (better known as the ACC/Big Ten Challenge). The Hoos will enter conference play unranked, but 11-2 and people will be wondering just how good they are.
Virginia is well-positioned to start strong in ACC play, and in general. The Cavs open at NC State, home to GT and Miami, at WF, and at home to Va. Tech. They also get UNC and Duke only once each. Its too early to expect wins against those traditional powers, but the Hoos will break through against the ACC’s second tier. My heart says 9-7; my head says 8-8. Either way, without a true marquee win, Virginia is left out of the dance. Disappointing at the time, but in the big picture, a successful first season for Bennett. Prediction: 19-10, 8-8. NIT berth.
cjhoo99: The energy of a new head man, the opportunities that accompany change, and the benefits of new schemes often produce some sort of positive results in year one. Certainly the idea is for the momentum of the first year to carry forward to years two, three, and four, yet, for whatever reason, that part of the puzzle seems to have eluded Virginia’s last two previous basketball coaches. Without a doubt, Hoo fans would like new headman Tony Bennett to find a way to break the recent trend plaguing UVa’s basketball program while still maintaining a little of that “beginner’s luck.” On paper at least it appears modest improvement over the complete debacle that was last season proves well within reason.
Virginia’s non-conference schedule proves very reasonable. If Bennett’s defensive system takes hold early, that should help keep some member of the opposing team from setting a new career-best in scoring against the Cavs (something that happened far too often under both Gillen and Leitao). By simply minimizing the bad losses that have been commonplace in recent years, the Hoos should finish the non-conference portion of the schedule at no worse than 8-5. If everything falls into place early on, it’s not completely inconceivable that Virginia travels to Raleigh sitting at 11-2, and should be 10-3 starting conference play.
Virginia plays a home and home series with N.C. State, Maryland, Va Tech, and Miami, and winning six of those eight games is not out of the question – that means the Hoos sweep either the Wolfpack or Miami while splitting with Maryland and Va. Tech. Certainly possible. An upset over Ga. Tech at home (second ACC game) or Wake Forest could be in the cards, and a road win over either Clemson or Boston College can’t be ruled out. Heck, even a shocker over Duke is not impossible – the Blue Devils tend to bring out the best in Virginia, especially in C’ville. Going .500 in the ACC would be a minor miracle while anything below 5-11 would prove disappointing.
A trip to the Big Dance seems a bit unlikely, though an NIT birth represents a reasonable goal. Getting back to post-season play (the CBI or any other b-grade tourney excluded) would certainly be a nice start to the Bennett era. Prediction: 17-12, 7-9, NIT berth.
ACC COY: Virginia has a new coach with a better system but still does not have very many good players. It's reasonable enough that if the players buy into Bennett's system and work hard, they can surprise a few teams, particularly at home, on the first leg of the home-and-homes. I doubt, however, that they would be able to beat many decent teams on the road, particularly when the opponent has already seen them once or has sufficient tape. Since the ACC is filled with decent to good teams, this is probably going to be a long season for the Wahoos.
I'd guess 6-10 in the ACC, with one or two big upsets and a growing reputation as a tough out, particularly in JPJ. Maybe one win in the ACC tournament, and all that is possibly enough to get into the NIT, which I think should be considered a major accomplishment considering how bare the cupboard is.
This isn't like Pete Gillen inheriting three bona fide ACC players in Adam Hall, Chris Williams and Donald Hand,* or Leitao getting JR and Sean Singletary. Virginia has exactly one legitimate top-shelf ACC player in Sylven, and maybe another two or three other guys that would be rotation regulars in a good ACC lineup. If this team even gets a sniff at .500 in the conference, Tony Bennett should hit Littlepage up for a 10-year extension with an extensive buyout. Prediction: 16-13, 6-10, NIT Berth.
*---I doubt anyone expected those three to be as good as they were, but doesn't it strike you in retrospect how for two years Virginia had a starting lineup of Williams, Hall, Hand, Watson and Mason (not to mention brief flashes of Mapp and some other guys), all of whom had legitimate professional careers in the minors, overseas or in the NBA, and never won a tournament game? Astounding. What would you give for that rotation right now? If Majestic Mapp does not hurt his knee, you have to figure they make it to the Sweet 16 at least once, right? Wow.
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With college basketball kicking off Monday night, college hoops previews are everywhere. As part of its coverage, ESPN the Magazine ranked the top 64 teams (ignore the fact that the top 64 don't make the dance, but rather 31 auto bids plus 34 at-large teams do, and oh yeah, its 65 teams because God forbid a 9-9 Big Ten team lose a spot for an automatic qualifier).
Its one of those years where no one can tell who's any good, so "experts" are largely sticking with the big names. Case in point, North Carolina, who lost their top four scorers from a year ago, are ranked sixth in the AP poll based on the return of Ed Davis and an uber-talented freshman class. The Heels will be good, especially towards the end of the season, but there's no way they're the sixth best team in the country right now.
But you can excuse a little North Carolina bias (Duke bias is another matter). They're always good, always have at least one lottery pick on the roster, and are well coached by Roy Williams. I also won't quibble with ESPN putting Duke at 12, since the Dukies always maximize talent (during the regular season at least), or Georgia Tech at 25, since Derrick Favors may be the best player in the country right out of high school (the last time Paul Hewitt brought Favors' kind of talent to Atlanta was 2006-07, when one-and-doners Thaddeus Young and Javaris Crittenden led the Jackets to a 20-12 record and an NCAA berth). And I won't even kill them too bad for putting Maryland at 19, although most people will tell you that merry band of turtles played over its head last season and its unlikely they'll be able to do it again. Same with Wake Forest at 33, but the Deacs will severely miss their two best players - Teague and Johnson - regardless of how high Al-Farouq Aminu can jump.
But once you get past them, I was shocked by the utter lack of homework ESPN did as part of its ESPN the Magazine College Hoops preview. They're not the only ones, but as the 700-pound gorilla in the sports world, they're an easy target.
First, the ACC was propped up last season by a couple of singularly great players on otherwise bad teams: Tyrese Rice at BC, Toney Douglas at Florida State, and Jack McClinton at Miami. All are gone; all three should expect to take a step back. Yet ESPN has BC at 28, essentially 5th in the ACC, based on the return of Reggie Jackson and all of his 7 ppg? Florida State is at 35 based on Darwin Kitchen? And Miami is at 56, based apparently on a couple of guys averaging just around 10 ppg? Sorry, folks, don't see it with any of them. Maybe BC is a bubble team based on Al Skinner and what's left of Rice's tough supporting cast, but make no mistake, they are nothing more than that - a supporting cast. BC's barely an NIT team last season without Rice. And don't expect FSU and Miami to be even bubble good without their do-everything leaders. Solomon Alabi's a nice NBA big-man prospect, but he can't score, something the 'Noles had enough trouble doing even with Douglas. And you want to know what life will be like for the Canes without Shooter Jack? Harken back to their ACC-Big Ten Challenge game last season against Ohio State. They led by 14 at the half with McClinton. Playing without him in the second half after he was ejected, they were outscored by 19. Get used to the latter.
ESPN also apparently thought another pair of senior-led teams - Virginia Tech at 42 and Clemson at 47 - were getting their leaders back. But no, AD Vasallo is not coming back for what seems like his seventh year of eligibility. I can't see the Hokies building an NCAA resume, which they didn't have last season even with Vasallo, on the backs of Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen. And Clemson lost not only KC Rivers to graduation, but also 3-point bomber and Reggie Cleveland candidate Terrence Oglesby to Italian pro ball. That's 27.4 ppg out the door. Trevor Booker is a man among boys, but I'm not sure who's getting him the ball, or loosening up defenses for him, anymore.
The point of all this, other than the national media is sometimes lazy and stupid? A middle of the pack spot in the ACC -- and the bubble talk that goes with that spot -- is ripe for the taking. Wake, BC, FSU, Miami, Va. Tech, and Clemson are all less than they were a year ago. Maryland's no better. So there's no reason Virginia, with five returning starters and the ACC ROY in its stable, can't fill that void. Its something I hope Tony Bennett's thinking, even if he's not saying it. The national media certainly isn't.
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It took a while for 16th-ranked Miami to find Virginia's soft underbelly -- its run defense -- but once it did, Miami didn't go away from it. 268 rushing yards later, the Canes broke open a close game at the half, and won going away, 52-17, over the Cavs.
Some observations with the Hoos one loss away from bowl ineligibility:
- Tip of the cap to the Cavs' secondary. When Miami characteristically opened the game pass-happy, Virginia's secondary of Dowling, Cook, Woods, and McLeod made a very good pass offense pay. Dowling's int set up the Hoos' first score, and Heisman-hopeful Jacory Harris looked thoroughly frustrated at halftime.
- Another tip of the cap to LB Cam Johnson, the most exciting young player in Virginia's stable. The second year backer had two sacks, unfortunately the second of which changed the momentum of the game. The call may have been technically correct -- the face mask penalty does include the "helmet opening," and an official can use replay to correct an "egregious" error. I'm not sure the official's interpretation of either of those terms is correct, but even if they were, I'm not sure what Johnson is supposed to do when he comes clean, and the quarterback ducks into him, causing Johnson to grab what he could to bring an extraordinary athlete to the ground. Keep going after 'em Cam.
- While Miami was figuring out how to attack the Hoos' defense (apparently they don't review film or stats from previous games at the U untiul halftime), their talent still staked them to a first half lead. That top-flight talent was on display first with TE Leonard Hankerson's 35-yard catch and run TD, and then PR Thearon Collier's 60-yard punt return. Virignia looked like they had both plays hemmed in before that talent took over.
- Virginia couldn't kick or cover kicks in the first half, but special teams coach Ron Prince clearly saw a hole to exploit in the Canes' punt-blocking scheme. Terrence Fells-Danzer's block set up Virginia's first touchdown, and then Trey Womack's block led directly to Billy Schautz's return TD.
- Virginia needed both, as their offense went back to its conservative roots with Marc Verica running the offense. The Hoos ran the ball effectively, but were awful on third down (2-for-12 for the game) and thus unable to sustain drives.
- Verica was a brutal 11-29 for 75 yards passing. If Sewell wasn't healthy, which wasn't reported late in the week but was apparently known by the coaching staff since the Duke game, someone needs to explain to me why Vic Hall too ZERO snaps at QB, as was reported by the TV crew doing the game. They could have used some of his escapability against that speedy Miami defense.
- Finally, Al Groh produced his second quote in the last week to explain away his team's performace with a lack of talent. Earlier in the week, Groh was quoted as saying that you can't force an identity without the skills to match it. After the Miami game, explaining why Wake Forest racked up 515 yards of offense against Miami's porous D while Virginia mustered little, Groh said, "They've got Riley Skinner," referring to the Deacs' QB. Unfortunately for Groh, he's ultimately responsible for the lack of talent he now sees in Charlottesville. Fortunately for the rest of us, its inconceivable that he'll be responsible for it much longer.
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As you've probably noticed, we've been a little thin on content the last few weeks here at the 7even Win Society. We had grand plans to discuss whether the University's academic standards excuse Virginia's poor recruiting (as Groh hinted at during a press conference a few weeks back), perhaps look into how a few rumored coaching candidates are doing these days (because the end for Groh is all but certain to be nearing, no?), and maybe even start up some basketball banter (because we can't wait for a team that offers some hope). But things like work, school, and family intervene sometimes, and you gotta do what you gotta do, not what you want to do. (Don't worry, though, those posts are coming).
Unfortunately, while the scribes of the 7even Win Society did what we needed to do, not what we wanted to do in the last few weeks, Al Groh hasn't. During a modest three-game winning streak, Coach Groh went to a gameplan that a talent-deprived roster had to in order to win some games -- play close to the vest offensively by running the ball, and rely on the team's relative strength on defense. It was ironic and downright defiant, since Groh had been forced during the offseason to fire his own son and hire Gregg Brandon to revolutionize Virginia's offense. But reverting back to his conservative roots is what Groh needed to do, and he seemed to be saying, starting with that game at Chapel Hill when Virginia ran the ball 43 times v. 27 pass attempts, that if he was going down, Groh was going down his way.
Groh followed the script the next two weeks. Against an overmatched Indiana team, Virginia ran the ball 45 times to 31 passes. Then, against a pass happy Terp squad on a muddy track, the Cavs ran the ball 38 times to 26 passes even though they were only averaging 1.7 yards a carry. Nate Collins made good on that strategy when he snatched a Chris Turner pass out of mid-air and ran it back for a TD, just as Collins and Chase Minnifield had by forcing an interception that led to a game-clinching TD in Chapel Hill. It wasn't pretty, but it was winning football.
So its been mind-boggling to watch the Hoos decide they're a passing team again the last few weeks. Against Ga. Tech, Virginia ran the ball only 12 times, only 7 of which were RB carries. It was a game that screamed out for Virginia to protect its defense, which bent but did not break in the first half against the Jackets' vaunted running game. But with no time to recover, because Virginia was passing the ball, time of possession be damned (GT 42:43, Virginia 17:17), the defense predictably wore down. But hey, you play to win the game, and perhaps the Virginia coaching staff thought it had to score to keep up with the Ramblin' Wreck. Not that its offense has consistently scored by passing, mind you, but I was willing to give Groh a mulligan, since it was hard to see how Virginia wins that game regardless of the offensive strategy.
Duke was another matter. Game in doubt throughout, and a game Virginia led early in the fourth quarter. What's the breakdown? Runs 28, Passes 38. In a game in which Virginia's running backs averaged 5 yards a carry, no less, and Sewell and Verica were putting together a stinkfest passing (107 yards for the game).
But Virginia still has time to redeem itself, or so we thought. Duke scores the go-ahead TD to take a 18-17 lead. 3:45 left. Plenty of time under college rules, where the clock stops after every first down and you still have a timeout. The play calls where the running game has worked, but the passing hasn't? Three passes, two incompletions and a sack that forces a fumble returned for a TD. That's OK. Still only down one score. You now need a TD, but a Minnifield return has just set you up with good field position at the VA 39. And there's still an eternity left -- 3:22. Calls? Four more passes, three incompletions, one sack on fourth down. A mind-numbing 28-17 loss to Duke at home.
I bring this up not to second-guess the play-calling (OK, maybe I am a little bit), but as a reminder with a trip to Miami and Heisman-candidate Jacory Harris looming on Saturday. The Canes average 388 yards of offense per game, and have scored more than 27 points in all but two games this season, a number Virginia itself has eclipsed twice all season. Let's not pretend the Cavs can score with Miami; they can't. Virginia ranks dead last in the ACC in scoring and total offense.
But the two teams that have held the Canes under 27 had one thing in common -- they ran the ball. In a September slogfest in Blacksburg, Virginia Tech ran the ball 55 times to 9 passes, and crushed the previously unbeaten Canes. Then, playing without Heisman coverboy Sam Bradford, Oklahoma broke tendency and ran the ball 42 times to 30 passes against Miami. The Sooners didn't win, but hung around until the very end in a 21-20 squeaker. Now, I'm not suggesting the Hoos can run the ball like those two national powers -- they can't -- but if the last two weeks have proven anything, its that Virginia can't win by abandoning the run for a mediocre at-best passing attack. Let's hope this Saturday, Virginia does what it needs to do, not what it might want to do.
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