Who is This 4-3 Football Team, and What Have They Done With Duke?

Who thought we'd see the day when it would be late October and Virginia would have a worse record than Duke?  Anyone?  Didn't think so.  By this time of year, Duke fans are usually following reports out of early season basketball practice.  OK, they probably still are, but Duke football is no longer a free win on the schedule, as evidenced by the 31-3 thrashing Virginia suffered last year in Durham.

The reason is simple, and it starts at the top (hint, hint Craig Littlepage).  Head Coach David Cutcliffe, who mentored Peyton Manning as OC at Tennessee and brother Eli as HC at Ole Miss, has brought much-needed credibility to the program.  Sure, there have been bumps in the road, like a season-opening loss to Mike London's 1-AA Richmond squad (second hint, hint).  Its still Duke, after all.  But there have been signs of progress as well.  The Blue Devils played Va. Tech closer than expected in a 34-26 loss, and followed that up with two wins at N.C. State and v. Maryland.  Its not the Steve Spurrier-era redux just yet, but its respectable.

That's mostly because of the offensive acumen Cutcliffe brought with him.  Duke averages just under 30 points a game, with most of the offense coming through the air (322.6 ypg passing v. only 74.4 ypg rushing).  QB Thaddeus Lewis, a four-year starter that has only gotten better under Cutcliffe, is the straw that stirs the drink for virtually everything Duke does on offense.  Lewis has a cannon for an arm, and has gradually increased his completion percentage and cut down on mistakes as his career has progressed.  The result this season is a signal-caller completing 64% of his throws with 14 TDs against only 3 ints.

Fortunately for the Hoos, Duke's strength plays right into theirs.  Virginia has struggled this season with run-dominant attacks (203 and 214 yards rushing allowed to TCU and S. Miss. respectively before surrendering last week's jaw-dropping 362 to Ga. Tech).  But they've held in check pass-first offenses Indiana and Maryland behind a stalwart secondary.  Expect the same Saturday against the Dukies.

It will also help Virginia that while Cutcliffe has improved the offense, its still the same old Duke defense.  The Devils surrender 25 points and 139 yards rushing per contest.  Expect a heavy dose of Mikell Simpson.        

(Ed. note - Simpson should be fresh after only six carries against Ga. Tech.  I know the run game was stifled early, but after playing to the team's strength -- defense -- by playing it close to the vest offensively during a three-game winning streak, Groh didn't do a whole lot to protect his charges against the Jackets.  With no offensive drives that lasted longer than 2:30 in the first half, Virginia was set up to surrender a back-breaking 10+ minute drive to start the second half.  Maybe the run was never going to work, but left with no time to recover because Virginia barely tried to run the ball to at least eat up some clock, the defense was bound to wear down eventually, and it did). 

Its a game Virginia should win, and if Groh holds out any hope (if there's any left) of keeping his job, a game he almost has to win.  It'd also help Groh's cause if more than 40,000 Virginia fans show up to watch.  I'm relatively confident about the win, less so about the attendance.  That might be a more damning commentary on the state of the program than any doubt surrounding the outcome of the Duke game.