ACC-Big Ten Challenge, Football Version

Since its inception in 1999, the Big Ten has never won the ACC-BigTen Challenge.  The amusing part? The leagues actually agreed to swap the names every other year, so its the Big Ten-ACC Challenge this and every other year.  Um, don't you have to win the challenge to get that privilege?  Shouldn't they just change it to the ACC - Big Ten Challenge until further notice? Yet somehow the Big Ten always seems to get equal or more bids to the Big Dance than the ACC.

But that's a rant for another day (although you can tell where my mind is at, October or not).  No, Virginia and Indiana play this weekend in football, where the Big Ten should have the advantage, right?  Well, not necessarily.  The Big Ten's failures (most notably Ohio State's) on the country's biggest stage is well documented, but it goes deeper than that.  So how do the conferences stack up against each other on the gridiron?

We decided to look into it.  The two conferences have not played yet this season, and  only sparsely in the last three years.  There's last year's academic bowl - Northwestern 24, Duke 20 (I've yet to confirm the rumor that the winner was decided through a game of Trivial Pursuit).  And then there's the 2007 Champs Sports Bowl - Boston College 24, Michigan State 21.  So two games over three years, and a split at that.  Not much help.

How about non-conference games in general? Thankfully, a Missouri blog - tigerboard.com - has done some great analysis on this, so I don't have to.  Not surprisingly from UVA's perspective since they're 0-3 themselves, the ACC has struggled in out of conference games this season.  Tigerboard's analysis is only current thru 9/24 (i.e. doesn't count the past two weekend's games).  But even if you add those more recent games in, the ACC is 12-11 against FBS teams; the Big Ten is 19-9.  Much better for the Big Ten. 

However, if you narrow it down to games against other BCS conference teams, the ACC and Big Ten are an identical 6-7 (including games against Notre Dame, of which the Big Ten has three). So it appears that the Big Ten has been fattening up on non-BCS opponents.  To be sure, the Big Ten should get some credit for actually beating them - Virginia certainly hasn't - but it does undercut the Big Ten's reputation as a superior football conference.   

It gets even shakier for the Big Ten if you look at the last decade.  The Big Ten simply does not have the non-conference advantage over the ACC you'd think it would as a supposedly powerhouse football conference.  In fact, it has none at all.  Since 2000 (for this, I did not adjust tigerboard's numbers to add the last two weekend's games), the ACC is a mediocre 99-108, a .478 winning percentage, against BCS conference opponents.  But the Big Ten is actually worse: 84-93, a .475 clip.  Now, of course, just as this season's numbers don't take into account strength of opponent, neither do the last decade's numbers.  But its a disparity you don't expect between what's known as a football conference and one that's known, even on this blog, as a basketball one.  

Of course, nobody thinks of Indiana as being one of the Big Ten's football powers anyway.  But when you look at those numbers, the fact that Indiana is 3-2 (wins against W. Ky., E. Mich., and Akron), or that the Hoosiers gamely fell, 36-33, at then-ranked Michigan, doesn't seem to mean a whole lot.  That's because it appears, just as in basketball, that the Big Ten is trading on an unwarranted reputation.  So Big Ten opponent or not, this is a game Virginia can, and at home probably should, win Saturday.