Oktoberfest Buzz

What in the world has happened? Only a month ago, this thing was all sorted out – a horrific 0-3 start, including an embarrassing loss to William and Mary, meant had officially hit rock bottom. All signs pointed to Groh’s dismissal as a foregone conclusion, and after being on the proverbial “hot season” for several seasons, it finally seemed like a true consensus had been reached regarding the embattled coach. The only question remaining was whether or not he would be released during the bye week or if Littlepage and company might consider an “exit” plan.

Yet a road win last Saturday over Maryland extended the Cavs winning streak to three, got them to .500 on the season, and as expected, caught the attention of some national media and even elicited some minor praise. While entertaining and good for news stories, Groh’s trademark as an October turnaround specialist proves confounding to most Virginia fans and downright problematic to those who firmly believe “Groh-must-go.” As it stands, the rebound certainly complicates the situation, and a matter that seemed resolved just three games ago once again provokes far more questions and “what-ifs” than answers.

So, the Yellow Jackets come to town tomorrow in what has turned out to be a surprise mid-season ACC showdown in C’ville, yet, no matter the outcome, the game will likely do little to help clarify things for Virginia fans. A loss and clearly things get very dicey, yet not entirely hopeless, and with this crew, who knows how the rest of the season will play out. On the other hand, a Cavalier upset probably only makes the Duke game that much more nerve-wracking. Long-time Wahoo fans have come to almost expect having their hearts stomped on just when things start to look promising, and a flop against Duke at home seems so fitting to follow an upset-win over Ga Tech. Even if UVa finishes October at 5-3, becoming bowl eligible is still no sure bet.

Ultimately, anything after tomorrow’s game is neither here nor there, and as players and coaches alike always take it “one game at a time,” so too should Cav fans. The Ramblin’ Wreck visits tomorrow and recent history favors the Hoos. References to Ga. Tech’s current winless streak in Scott Stadium abound, and for those who follow the Cavaliers, it would not come as a complete shock if Virginia pulls off the upset. These two squads seem to have a knack for making sure the favored team suffers a disappointing and often season-altering defeat. If the Cavaliers want to continue the trend, the overwhelming consensus is that they must find a way to stop Tech’s high-powered running game.

Averaging over 281 yards per game, Ga Tech ranks second in the country in rushing and their 417 yards of total offense per contest is good for second in the ACC. Quarterback Josh Nesbitt orchestrates the Yellow Jackets’ triple-option, and in fact, the junior leads the team with 625 rushing yards on the season – good enough for 34^th in the country no less. Reigning ACC offensive player of the year Jonathan Dwyer follows closely behind Nesbitt with 593 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns on the season. How heavily do the Jackets rely on these two guys and their ground attack? Put it this way, last week against the Hokies, Ga Tech ran the ball 63 times (43 of which were either Dwyer or Nesbitt) and the two accounted for 204 of the team’s 309 rushing yards on the afternoon. For the season, Nesbitt has only 80 pass attempts, and last week against Va Tech he was a mere 1-7 for 51 yards. On the rare occasion they do go to the air, look for Demarius Thomas to be the prime target as he leads the team with 27 catches for 671 yards and 4 touchdowns on the year.

While every team facing the Ramblin’ Wreck knows what to expect, few have been able to slow them down. For the Hoos to control the Yellow Jackets' running attack, Hootie of the Daily Progress points to the importance of Virginia maintaining their defensive assignments while Michael Phillips of the RTD stresses being patient defensively. Virginia’s defense has proven decent most of the season and has especially come on strong during the three-game winning streak. The Cavs enter the contest ranked 21st nationally while only allowing 293 yards of total offense per game. Virginia will have to go without defensive end Matt Conrath, and he plays a key role in a unit that has fared relatively well against the run (ranking 59th nationally). Against Maryland the Hoos gave up less than 4 yards per carry (Va Tech surrendered almost 5 yards a carry to the Yellow Jackets last week). Forcing three turnovers was a key contributing factor in last year’s upset victory and this is one area that could likely play a big role in tomorrow’s contest – takeaways are certainly one way to slow Ga Tech’s ground attack, keep their offense off the field, and disrupt their ball control. After digging themselves a deep whole early in the season, Virginia is now back on the plus side in turnover margin and ranks 37th nationally

Of course, UVa's offense could do their part in helping slow the Ramblin' Wreck attack by sustaining long drives and putting plenty of points on the board. Sewell is probable for Saturday's contest and Mikell Simpson is expected to play which is good news for the Cavalier offense. Ga Tech has been allowing opposing offenses to move the ball well against them. The Yellow Jackets surrender almost 378 yards per game and give up 26 points per outing, so Virginia should be able to move the ball and generate some ball control of their own.

Call it Virginia’s version of Oktoberfest, chalk it up as yet another shining example of the “Octgrohber” effect, or simply blame it on Groh continuing to live up to his media nickname of “Mr. October,” but whatever the reason, Virginia's turnaround has certainly made things interesting. The players call him “Jeezy,” for Young Jeezy, and while there seems to be no obvious connection between Groh and the hip-hop artist, Young Jeezy’s single titled “Crazy World” off his 2008 album The Recession seems to aptly sum up the season thus far. Hoo knows, if history continues to repeat itself, things might just get even more crazy after Saturday.