Spread 101, Part IV: What Can Possiblie Go Wrong?

This is part four in a four-part series on UVA's introduction to the spread offense. Part I discussed general spread principles. Part II focuses on what the spread will look like at UVA based on the man brought in to run the spread -- former Bowling Green Head Coach and new Virginia OC Gregg Brandon. Part III focuses on whether Virginia has the pieces in place to adequately run the spread.  This final part focuses on the pitfalls that Virginia faces as it transitions to a new offense.

You put together a better offensive product with what has traditionally been a solid defense under Al Groh, and things just have to get better, right? Well, that’s the thinking. But its far from foolproof.  Why?

(1) This is the ACC, not the MAC. Clemson has been running the spread for years. Their success, with more talent than UVA will have on hand in 2009, was uneven at best and ultimately cost Tommy Bowden his job. We know the spread can succeed in any college football conference, but we don’t know if Gregg Brandon’s version can against an up-and-coming ACC.

(2) He’s a good cook, but not good at grocery-shopping. Brandon’s best season by far as a head coach was in 2003, his first year as head coach replacing Urban Meyer, when Brandon went 11-3. After that initial season, Brandon’s team slowly regressed -- 9-3 in 2004, 6-5 in 2005, 4-8 in 2006, rebounded somewhat in 2007 with an 8-5 record, before last year’s 6-6 campaign, Brandon’s last. Football is replete with examples of coaches coming in and winning with someone else’s players for a year before regressing back to the mean. As the players Meyer recruited slowly graduated from Bowling Green, Brandon’s fortunes faded. Since Groh’s no Urban Meyer in terms of recruiting, we don’t know if Brandon can run his system successfully without superior talent on hand.

(3) The Joe Gibbs Conundrum. Even if Brandon is up to the task, we don’t yet know if he’ll be allowed to run his offense as he sees fit. In January 2006, the Washington Redskins hired offensive guru Al Saunders to run their moribund offense. He was set to handle the play calling, and was going to bring the Redskins’ offense into the 21st century. The problem? Joe Gibbs wasn’t really on board with handing over full control. Now maybe Saunders never would have turned the offense around, but Gibbs never really gave him a chance. Gibbs meddled in play-calling, handcuffed Saunders at every turn, by November, with the team struggling, announced a return to “Redskin football.” Let’s hope history doesn’t repeat itself in Charlottesville under similar circumstances.

(4) Are the pieces in place for success in 2009? As we noted yesterday, the Cavs may not have all the pieces in place at QB and WR to run a successful spread offense in 2009. Vic Hall can run, but has thrown all of two passes at UVA. Marc Verica can throw, but is more or less a statue back there. Sewell shows flashes of the ability to do both, but I don’t trust him to throw the ball accurately more than 10 yards, do you? The Cavs also lost their top five pass catchers from 2008. To run the spread, you need at least three quality starters, and a herd of WRs to play. The Cavs have the latter. There is more than some question as to whether they have the former.

(5) Better Offense + Same Defense = Success? Seems simple enough. But with the no-huddle spread offense now being run in C’ville, the defense may be on field a lot more. For all the offense Brandon’s Bowling Green teams produced, his 2007 team, which went 8-5, actually gave up more yards than they gained. His 2008 team gave up 343 yards and 22 ppg. Of course, defense is Al Groh’s problem, not Brandon’s. But its entirely possible that the Cavs’ D will be on the field more often in 2009.  Whether that's a good thing or not is something that is not entirely clear.