Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Spread 101, Part II: The Gregg Brandon File

This is part two in a four-part series on UVA's introduction to the spread offense.  Part I discussed general spread principles.  Part II focuses on what the spread will look like at UVA based on the man brought in to run the spread -- former Bowling Green Head Coach and new Virginia OC Gregg Brandon.

What the spread offense looks like from team to team is like anything else: its dependent on the coach’s preference, and of course, personnel, specifically the QB you have. If you’re Oklahoma and have Sam Bradford or Texas Tech and you have someone like Graham Harrell, you’re throwing the ball 40 times a game. If you’re Florida and you have Tim Tebow or West Virginia and you have Pat White, you’re running more than you’re passing.

Well, Sam Bradford’s not walking through that door. Tim Tebow’s not walking through that door. Rather, one of Vic Hall, Jameel Sewell, or Marc Verica is walking through that door. I know, not exactly Montana v. Young, is it?

But most Virginia fans know what those QBs bring to the table. What will Brandon be looking for? As most people who have read anything about Brandon know, he succeeded Urban Meyer at Bowling Green when Meyer moved onto Utah after the 2002 season. Its dangerous to read too much into what Brandon did upon assuming head coaching duties from Meyer because he would have been doing it with Meyer’s players (more on that in Part IV on Thursday). But it is fair to look at what Brandon’s teams have done the past few seasons, when control (and the players) were all his.

In 2008, Bowling Green averaged just short of 360 yards per game (for comparison’s sake, Virginia averaged just under 300 ypg). The Falcons did average more yards passing than running (225 to 134). But its not cumulative yards that tell the story. Instead, its total plays, and specifically who’s number got called.

BG’s reading rusher in 2008 was QB Tyler Sheehan, who carried the ball 105 times for 457 yards. The Falcons also had two running backs that split about 15-20 carries a game. So despite playing out of the spread formation, Brandon’s 2008 BG team still ran the ball 20-25 times a game. They did pass too. But they spread it around (no pun intended). Ten different players had at least 10 catches on the season. Five had at least 22 catches. In total, however, Bowling Green ran 681 plays from scrimmage in 2008. 407 were runs. Only 274 were passes.

The result? Bowling Green scored at least 27 points in seven of twelve games in 2008 (for comparison’s sake, Virginia cracked 27 points only twice last season).

The Falcons were a little more pass-oriented in 2007. They averaged 278 yards passing to 123 rushing. But again, the Falcons were still run-dominant when it came to play-calling. In 2007, BG ran 750 plays from scrimmage: 418 were runs, 332 were passes.

The Falcons were even more run-dominant in 2006, when they ran a whopping 505 running plays to only 195 passing plays. Its also the only year in the last three that BG actually averaged more yards rushing than passing (176 to 167). They also finished 4-8, Brandon’s worst season as head coach for Bowling Green.

What does this all mean? Advantage Hall and Sewell; thanks for playing Marc Verica. Brandon clearly prefers the running spread model. That should only be reinforced by Al Groh‘s preference (regardless of what he says) for conservative offense. Of course, Brandon has said he can tweak the system to what he has at quarterback. But his preference appears to be towards the runner, and both Hall and Sewell are better runners than Verica is a passer.

So I’d expect about 20-25 rushes per game. Hall/Sewell about 10-15 carries each. Simpson (who should thrive under the spread formation if he can stay healthy) plus whoever wins the backup job getting another 10-15 carries. When Virginia does throw, expect it to be of the short variety, which makes sense in light of the inexperience of the receiving corps this season. And almost all of it will be done out of the no-huddle offense. A winning combination? Who knows. A more exciting UVa offense? Almost certainly.

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